rochesterdave

First system is as close to lock as you see in this time frame. Wiggle room either way but I’m not seeing any reason for a big bust. It all comes down to who Jack pots! Binghamton, I’m looking at you, you greedy bastards. i90 from BUF to just west of Syracuse has the benefit of a relatively warm lake to their NE. Syracuse might be a touch closer to system QPF. Either way, my only concern is a little bit of late game suppression. Which would mean advisory over warning amounts. I’m not too concerned but it’s what I’m watching. Fun one!

Who wants to bet that the 12z EURO caves to the GFS for late week? Will the King take a bow? I think so.

First 48 hours. Dustings. Lol

I really like the dynamic ratio 6z EURO. It’s a kuchera type product. Looks about right

ICON with a meaningful bump SE. It’s a fight between suppression and storm strength. Ultimately, I think we all get some love. North of I-90 may need to rely on the lake for some qpf help.

Sure looks tight. RGEM on NW periphery, GFS ensembles on the SE. EURO splits them. Tight grouping. Still time for 100 miles either way. We always get movement in last 48. I’m looking for the sweet spot to get between 1 and 2 feet. It’s a big one.

I hope this one f...s them in the ear.

Perfect track

Yeah man. I’d love to slow everything down.

RGEM is a decent hit

CMC is weaker and SE for Mon/Tuesday

GFS precip looks more NW. nice

NAM has a tight cutoff N-S. With NW areas not seeing anything on the big one. NAM has been consistently too far SE lately but something to watch. I’m not worried

I live right in the sweet spot for Saturday nights event. So it’s #1 in my mind.

The band over the lake is sinking south. Flakes are starting in Irondequoit. Kind of unexpected.

#3 is a close call on the GFS. 50 miles would make a big difference. If we cash in on all 3, it will be an epic 7 days. Epic!

NAVY develops a secondary on the coast for our 3rd storm. Which could possibly save us from warming up. Lots of possibilities still.

Great look!

Wow! What aEURO run. Pretty exciting stuff!

Yep. This is it. Zonal for March. You never know for sure, but I think if we get a big one, it’s gotta happen in the next 3 weeks.

CMC with a different look but better than RGEM. RGEM would be a disaster.

Uh oh

Yep

Pretty much same as 18z. Could be close. It’ll be 250 miles from our current thinking. I’m hoping SE. lol