rochesterdave

Really? I feel like the epic east end events are usually driven by big closed LP’s over Canada that have strong SW winds. Of course the winds go dead within the band. But I defer to your knowledge.

Just was out walking the dogs and it’s practically still. One thing I know about getting lake effect snow in Northern Monroe is that it MUST NOT be windy. Anything above 15mph and you can kiss it goodbye. So we have this one variable working in our favor.

Snowing hard in Irondequoit! Let’s go!

Radar returns indicate precip moving in all different directions. Even over Huron they continue to move in varying degrees of direction. Might be hard to get any persistent bands going. But upstream looks juiced. This might all be due to meso lows flipping the winds around. Like BUFS map shows.

That would be perfect! Just under a foot in Irondequoit. Possible. I guess.

Basic thing is this: south shore lake effect remains mostly un-forecastable. It’s a guess. Seems like a decent setup but we simply will not know until the snow is falling (or not). Warnings would be silly, at least in my thinking.

NAM literally has zero support for BUFS forecast

Literally in my back yard. One can hope. I’d be thrilled with 1/6th of that. Just nuts

Rochester’s high end amount is the same as its expected amount, 5”. The low end is 4”. The chance of greater than 6” is 0%. All according to BUF probabilistic maps. Very bad. in actuality: low end 0” high end 8” expected 2” chance of 6+= 10%

I feel like I’ve seen this same storm 5 times this year.

Haha. RGEM already shifted the heavier amounts out of Monroe county. They now have zero support for WSW over Rochester. IT LOOKS like an ok set up, but a watch!?!?!? After a huge bust? Just seems nuts. Wayne county is used to 6” fluff from LES. Hit them with an advisory 6 hours before it starts.

They are gluttons for punishment.

Sums it up. Check out the minima right over WNY. I don’t really care much about duration and snow pack. Give me one or two big synoptic storms and I’ll be happy. If you measure this year by synoptic storms it would be a big fat red F. Expectations play a part and we’ve had a number of storms fall apart at the very last minute which definitely makes it difficult. If I had a single synoptic event like Binghamton had and not another flake, I’d call it an A- winter. Being nickeled and dimes to a long lasting crust of 5” doesn’t do it for me. But, hey, we all different. Glad that is decent for some of you. Delta could be happy if we had 3 high wind events. Lol

Wheatcent. Where you been my whole life?

This is the one that’s coming for our snow pack. Temps 40’s-50’s. Hey, just before my last ski trip! Perfect. Lol. Maybe this winter goes from D-F. Still time.

Radar shows moderate snow. Reality shows nothing.

If I looked at this, out of context, I’d think, ‘whoa, that’ll be good!”

Disappointing part of this next one is that if there was just a primary, south shore would do ok, but the secondary over Western PA (probably WNY) steers the flow to SW- screwing us....again. Could even have ptype issues but I’m talking about enhancement.

Wrong forum.

Gennessee valley will be precip starved on all of these. Even the lake response looks awful. NW end of the lake? IDK. It’s active. Maybe something will catch. Just a humbling 3 days. From euphoria to depression. Perhaps the worst swing I can remember.

Texas is soft. Lol

Yes! Doesn’t get much worse. Hopefully this will be the last in a cycle. I’m still trying to get a place in the Adirondacks so I can get my fix. Property is in short supply up there. Too many disappointments on the south shore to even count. Check please

Lesson learned. Never trust the models when they advertise an EPIC week 7 days in advance. This winter remains a D in my book. I care about synoptic storms and not so much duration of snow cover. And I think it’s just about over. March doesn’t seem to want to deliver but ya never know. Short range, long range, medium range- none of them has been good. At least it’s pretty out.

The 700 LP moved solid 150 miles in last 24 hours on the last one.