I think you and a couple others were the only ones buying the potential pattern change. Like you said, once a pattern locks in….
But there’ll be jumpers none the less.
It’s a solid possibility. But, you’ll get more than most of us. Hard to believe 1,000’ can make that big of a difference but it does. Rochester gets downsloped every time there’s a SW wind. All the precip just disappears on radar.
I’ll have to pull out my good avatar. I still remember Freak going off on me about my “stupid face”. Lol.
Freak would be the underdog (Matt and I the picks) but when he goes he REALLY goes. I actually miss a good Freak meltdown. He’s incredibly funny when he’s hot.
I still haven’t had my first inch. I’m a junky in withdrawal. I can’t be held responsible for my words.
Wait until someone starts posting those BTV lake effect maps or the Brazilian model.
Seriously, we’re well aware of our ‘imbalances’. Lol
Believe me, the ICON hardly ever shows me what “I’d like to see”. It rarely drops clown maps like last nights. As Wolfie said, it’s the stingiest. And imho often the most accurate with snow totals.
The verification stuff is meaningless when it comes to a R/S line in WNY. It got an update in 19 from what I recall. Besides, the old NAM was low resolution and was probably the best model this planet ever saw for big storms in the NE.
Each one has a place
Grinch here. If I had to guess, in this pattern, I’d go with something like the ICON. If there’s winter wx, it’ll be with over running precip in the typical spots- ENY, ADKs. Hope I’m wrong!! Wish we were all in Lake Tahoe!
Thanks for posting the long range and the indices. We can dream. But honestly, I don’t trust them one little bit. A pattern like this is very difficult to budge. On the upside, once it budges (if it does) we could be in for some fun.
This just smacks of the horrendous winters Rochester suffered through in the early 80’s. I do recall Buffalo doing better with the LES during the brief Arctic outbreaks .
We need some kind of communal Prozac up on this board.