rochesterdave

What temp does it stay snow at the 700? I was always led to believe it was -4.

UKIE did cave to a CMC look. 850’s stay pretty cold but admittedly it could be between frames we see the worst of it. And….it’s the Uncle.

Frozen dog turds

Nah. As long as 700’s stay -4 we are ok.

Oh Jesus. Don’t let Matt see this

The 700’s stay real cold. Crazy.

Lot of possibilities. Lol

Interesting. That colder region around Buffalo is dynamic cooling? Coincides with the heavy band.

GFS is maybe a touch colder. So far the NAM was the only total spaz.

I need this to be safe space tonight.

HiREZ GFS looks decent. For western areas especially. It’s not showing a sleet fest.

Icon nudged a little NW but not the disaster the NAM was.

Like Wolfie posted above, the upper level low moved NW 200 miles.

Obviously a terrible run. But it’s the NAM and we have 48 hours to revert or salvage something. I’ll be waiting on the GFS that has been pretty solid for days now to see if the NAM truly sniffed out a ‘game changer’ or just the NAM being the NAM.

From Philly to Rochester. Un-freaking-believable. You gotta just laugh.

Western snow shield jumped 125 miles!

Christ. Lol. It’s one run but wow.

You can feel it coming….

I think it ticks east at the last minute. Starting tomorrow. Just something I’ve noticed.

I think we are seeing the mixing issue because we lack a strong Canadian HP that is typically present with these. Our HP slides off the coast and actually aids in bringing in maritime air. Hopefully the east trends kick in soon. 0z might be scary though- right at that 48 hour where traditionally the west lean is strongest. It’s all superstition of course, but I’ll bet they start ticking back tomorrow. We’re already losing our eastern players. And it’s knock, knock, knocking on Monroe county. I still feel good. Sleet is just one of those limiting factors we gotta contend with. It’s always something. But the track is great. It’s strengthening as it climbs. I still say Syracuse and west sees a banger of a storm!!

Actually better

Ehhh. It’s almost exactly the same. Precip depiction is a different. I’ll bet accumulations are similar. Who knows?!?

Hmmm? Mix of Euro and climo? Big spread

Greedy

NAM is east believe it or not.