rochesterdave
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Everything posted by rochesterdave
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Seems like they’ve been hugging the 3k. -
Looking forward to their disco. You’d hope that they have cohesive reasoning behind such a huge jump. They moved the 12-18 by like 40 miles
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Pretty massive jump east on NWS map
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This storm is the perfect test for the model snow algorithm’s. The maps look great. The temp profiles kind of suggest a different story.
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Your hope is our disaster. Lol
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Yep. One would think this might support a lot of mixing. IDK. Similar to earlier runs.
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Start?!? I’ve been obsessing for days. Lol. Right on the cusp. The maps are more aggressive than the soundings. But it’s very close. As Vort said, dynamic cooling should help. NYC always gets saved by it- why can’t we for once?
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That’s our prayer. Lol
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Thanks. My hope too. Should be fun!
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P&C down to 3-7 for tonight and also tomorrow. It could go either way.
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Are you concerned with the dryslot and sleet dynamics being so near us to our east? I’d love a little jog to the east. You are probably in the safer part of Monroe county. The rest of us are east siders
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Close. But looks like snow
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Yep. A lot of signals screaming high bust potential.
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Slip sliding away. Lol. Gonna be tight in SE Monroe county. I’d be better off in Irondequoit but I prefer it here for storms.
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I’m gonna try not to puke out models today but you can see why the 3k moved like it did.
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Love the attitude. I’d be in a closet banging my head against a wall. Lol.
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Thanks! It looks much better. The NAM definitely caught the shift west early but maybe over did it? Watch the NWS change their maps in a hurry. They’ve been following the 3k closely.
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Hey, real sorry to see advisories over east. I guess we all saw it coming. It’s tough. I know for sure. Maybe things surprise and it’s all gravy because you ain’t expecting much.
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HiREZ GFS excited to see if it’s any good.
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HAHAHA. That m’fer. 3k been trolling me for days. Finally collapses. Jesus.
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Living in the edge here in SE Monroe County. I gotta say I believe the NAM. BUF-12 Roc- 9 Syr- 6 Skaneatles- 8 IAG-14 Toronto- 10 (huge for them)
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I hope so. That would be awesome. We are living on the edge buddy. It could be epic but it could skunk. It wouldn’t take much for us to get what the models have been doing to Syracuse
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I really think ROC gets dumped on but I also think this storm has an unusually high bust potential anywhere East of the Gennessee River. Like a 25% chance of a big bust. Warmth can over perform. A wound up storm can blow open a big dry slot. But I’m thinking 12”+ for Roc.
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Slam job.
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It’s pretty good! Soundings look fine for us.
