rochesterdave

And then it becomes a bit of a coastal. Hahaha. I love this stuff

Ehhh. The cold air bleeds in.

GFS continues to subtly adjust north on the second wave. The snowfall maps didn’t change but I’m happy to see the suppression scenario stop

So now we go the other way. First it was taint and now it’s too cold…lol I like right where we sit. We should be fine. I hope.

Because we’re morons Tom. Obviously

For once I’m going to say it. Only to regret it. TOSS.

Like I’ve been saying. At least 30:1 due to the cold. We’re in complete agreement as usual. Tom is like the forum scold. But he’s smart, so I guess he stays.

Yeah, geez, that NAM run is tits. It hits with both waves. Wow. Is it in range? BTW? Where is BUFWX? I hope I didn’t piss him off to the point of blockage.

6z 10:1 map. Keeps eating away at QPF. First wave is NW. Second comes right over us.

Yep! I agree with these sentiments. It’s nearly impossible to imagine we’d be here given the forecasts, the terrible December, etc. etc. This winter is working it’s way into my heart. There were desperate moments, frustration and defeatism and yet we might come out on top. All things considered, it feels like a miracle! Especially for my ski trip. Lol I’m pretty bullish despite the trends of lower QPF. 12” entire thruway corridor Erie to Rome. Lollipops of 16” along the south shores of both lakes if we can get this to spin a bit.

Yeah. Gotta like the tick north on the GFS. The bleeding has stopped?

BTW, all of it falls by hour 84. Not sure why I pulled hour 102. It’s late…

Solid with ratios. Lol

Pulled back on QPF due to being less amped. Heights are lower in the east. Less of a riding LP and more of a weak wave. Still a nice storm.

Plus it gives Syracuse a little breathing room. Solid run.

Gonna be a nice run for most everyone

Very similar to 12z thru 48

EURO rolling.

I think you’ve got a little crush

The 10:1 maps verified much better in almost every area outside of that deformation band in Boston. But point taken.

Shameless

Never. Lol. JK. In my humble opinion it should only be used for lake effect and very rarely in synoptic situations. 10:1 is a great rule of thumb in synoptic storms. Maybe tack on a little.

Nice compromise

Model mayhem! Haha. Turns out these anafrontal things aren’t nearly as predictable as Miller A’s. 48 hours out and we still have wildcard solutions floating around.

Yowzer! They opened up! Sweet.