rochesterdave

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Couple slushy inches. I’m in Brantingham. Moderate snow. BTW, West Turin still has a big snow pack- 18”+ Brantingham has about 12”.

Storm ended up pretty Far East. Which is partly why western zones getting the screw job. Also the diurnal stuff pretty typical- I shoulda figured more on both! 34 and Snowing in Oneida. Just barely sticking.

How did this bust? What am I missing? I mean it looked so good. And then the entire west half got its qpf buzz sawed.

I’m going anyway. What the hell!

This winter.....

Haha. I’m thinking I’ve wasted a lot of time on this mess. Lol. I’m going to the dacks. Hope I can get a couple pics!

Teske drives me crazy. Instead of just ignoring WNY, he just decreases amounts as the map extends westward. Always.

Probabilistic maps for Rochester are fun. Low end at 0 and high end at 8. Tough one

Tight gradient right between Syracuse and Rochester. NWS going with Euro for flags. Its, quite honestly, the most likely outcome. A real nail biter. Lol

Downslope

Vermont might have some mixing issues. I’d much rather be in the dacks for this one. Rochester is also in a funny location. Rochester is going to be on the western most periphery for the main slug which will mostly be rain/ mix for lower and mid elevations. If the storm gets cranking, like I expect, even the lower elevations within the main slug could goto snow due to dynamic cooling. This will be important for Syracuse, Lowville, etc. If it trends further west, it could also be important for Rochester and Wayne County. Most of Rochester’s snow will fall during the second half with help from the lake while moisture is pinwheeling back in from the north. By that point, the entire column should be well below 28f. It’s a matter of how much moisture is pushed west and how much Ontario wants to help. This is still changeable. Honestly, Rochester could see a slushy inch or a foot. IDK. Being on the immediate lake shore will be tough for any accumulation. Areas like Oswego.. imho. Conversely, areas with just a bit of elevation should do better. Super curious what the 12z euro shows. Will it continue its trend of decreasing WNY totals? Probably....

It’s a barn burner of a low! Tight. Tucked. And ready to rumble. Someone in the Dacks sees 30”

Those look reasonable. Thanks as always Wolfie

12z NAM 5 mb deeper compared to the 6z run at 21 hrs. This thing is on fire. Someone in central ny is getting smoked. I’d put money on Syracuse. its gonna be stronger, colder and further west than expected. Syr 10+ Roc 4 Buf 2 Laje Placid 24

The storm is already REALLY wound up. This is gonna be fun to watch. Where was this power house in January? pretty classic Miller A!!

The wind is usually not as bad as they expect during the storm. It’s usually after that they ramp up

Whiteface is a lock

I will probably be in Brantingham. Where are you going? Whiteface?

Yeah. Rochester has been on the fringes of this thing. I’ve got to get used to the Euro struggling. What happened to that model? GFS looks good. Canadian looks good. There are a few SREF plume members that are eye popping. Looking at a couple wet inches. Probably. you know I’m still hunting for a foot

What the hell! Hope this is just a glitch. Cut Rochester by 60-75%. Ugh

Not even entertaining this.

Still fun to watch, unfortunately warmer and shield is staying east. Did overnight Euro still hammer us?