rochesterdave

Not a member here that doesn’t give the north country boys a lot of love.

Alex, I’ll take member 11 for 1000

I’d think Warm air would shuffle right up the lakes plain. That low gets anywhere near Erie and BUF to Roc is shot until the LP AND moisture is East. No obvious HP to keep our eastern zones cool either. We gotta hope for a further south track or a real early transition- in my uneducated opinion.

Up for the wackiest run this winter

A 984 over NYC and nada? Crazy

Much better dig. Deeper and earlier= West.

Beat me to it Wolfie! By seconds!!

0z. Another step NW. it’s a watcher.

Couple of the 18z models made a big jump NW. something to watch especially for eastern NY. RGEM looks interesting.

SW quadrant never has that much precip. Let’s hope on a BIG press and get this thing south so we can be in the appropriate quadrant (nw).

I agree with DELTA. Roc inflates snow totals (at times). Two years ago they were criticized for under measuring and ever since they’ve exaggerated. The pattern everyone is talking about is classic set up for the traditional belts, of which Roc is most definitely NOT ONE. We get enhancements and nickel and dime LES on a north flow- typically unpredictable. We can get big one with a retrograde low that backs into Maine. But these guys are talking about a system parked over Hudson Bay and a SW or W trajectory. Roc will have sunshine and cold windy weather. At least Delta likes wind. Tim is a bit better situated for LES being in Wayne but I gotta say, I can count true Roc LES storms on two hands in the last decade . Usually a sagging front that stalls on the south shore and produces convergence on soft winds. IDK. My two cents (worth one). I gotta live for synoptic and I’m not seeing anything promising.

This pattern is the dumps. If it’s followed by a warm December it’s gonna be tough.

Insane

The problem with an early storm is that now I’m all revved up and realizing that it might be a good while before we track another...dang. Still have several inches of goop though. Should’ve gotten a Christmas tree yesterday!

Super dull. This still has a 1:10 chance of cutting left and throwing back some colder air and snow but it looks less and less likely. lots of impulses over the next weeks but none look exciting. I guess we have to wait for the Greenland block?

GEPS sneaking west

That’s an interesting area for weather. You can get in on some Lake Effect. But just to your East, they do a bit better. Weedsport and Skaneateles do quite well. Sorry you missed out on the last one. Welcome friend. We’ve got a great little group here. Feel free to join in the banter. Your science background will be welcome.

Looks like a good set up. But why cant it get its act together?

Swing and a miss. So close. A sub 990 LP in the gulf of Maine and nada? Still got time. NAM shows moderate snow back to Syracuse (at least).

All the while, BuffWeather desperately trying to change the topic. it’s like sitting at the Thanksgiving table with my family. Lol.

Well put! It’s sad to see what’s happened to our national debt and for what? The annual budget deficit has doubled since 2016 and what do we have to show for it? The interest alone will start to strangle us.

Jesus Tim. Stop. You sound like an Alex Jones rube. You gonna move on to Pizzagate next?

Not in human history. The worry is how rapidly the temps have increased. That part is unprecedented. What’s wrong with trying to curb pollution? When I was a kid (early 80’s) I was sent to Boy Scout Camp in the Adirondacks. I loved to fish and was super excited. When I got there, it was explained that all the fish had died in the lake due to acid rain which was caused by the emissions from factories in Ohio, Pa and Michigan. The acid rain has stopped and the lakes have recovered but I always felt belching chemicals into the atmosphere was a bad idea. How is trying to reduce emissions a bad idea, no matter what your politics?

But the elites aren’t doing the research. It’s scientists and students doing their doctorates. Nerdy academics doing dry research pulling ice cores and studying migratory patterns. People who operate under high levels of ethical standards. To believe it’s all fake you have to accept that it’s a conspiracy, involving thousands of complicit academics throughout the world and what is their devious motivation? I’d venture heat islands are of minimal impact but are still problematic. Besides, it’s time to move on from coal- it’s a dirty, finite resource that’s subsidized to hide it’s true cost. Coal wil continue to decline despite being Trumps favorite, yet disingenuous, pet project. Anyhow, that’s all, I don’t wanna get into political debate about GW. Personally, I’m apt to defer to scientific consensus as I know I’m a rube. Point was WNY winters are long as hell!

I was doing a bit of Simple math today and the last few winters have been pretty astonishing in their duration. In Rochester, we’ve begun sometime in early November and continued well into April- leaving us with 5 plus months of actual winter. Not just cool but with accumulating snows. That’s nearly six months! Half of the year for all intents and purposes. This isn’t a political statement as I fully believe in climate change (the global trends are hardly debatable) but it certainly hasn’t shortened my favorite season in this part of the world. Kind of crazy.