rochesterdave

Tim, I think it’s reading heavy sleet off the initial push as snow (common model error). I hope I’m wrong. Once the secondary gets cranking, WNY will be out of the game. We’d need a big deformation holding back west or a better chance is if that initial slug is considerably cooler than currently progged. I know I sound like a downer. Your enthusiasm keeps us balanced. I’ll be in Chicago but hoping for Roc!!

Gotta love that little blip of pink over Albany. Pretty big NW step for the 12z Runs thus far. Don’t bite.

Interesting that Euro insists the big stuff is further NW compared to other models (exclude the UKie). It’ll be fun to see how it verifies. NAM has been South from the beginning.

I’m happy for KALB. They’ve had a tough few years

Been saying that for days.

Great example of how kuchera can work against ya.

Tight

I can recall I-81 as the western cutoff zone for big accumulations for lots of storms in the 90’s. This could be one of those. I might have to eat my words (“nobody in BUF forecast zone sees 4”+). Clearly Lewis and Oswego counties still in the game. The only one I remember, like this, that gave Roc big snow, occurred in 92. Dropped 18” in the eastern Rochester suburbs and wasn’t really forecast. It’s the only one that I can recall. Others? Gotta be more, WNY shows up in the 20-30% on the analogues for 4”....

NYC weenies just got a boost

Haha haha! Empirical proof! Hehe! Just kidding Freak. im flying to Chicago on Monday so perhaps the entire forum will get slammed. no but seriously, this storms a disaster for WNY and any BUF forecast county. If anyone in those areas gets more than 4”, repost this and throw it in my face like a savage!

Don’t bite

Could see this being on the money. Sorry

Hahaha! But I’m not the jinx. TugHillMatt is definitely the jinx. You don’t want him moving anywhere near you lol! Just kidding Matt! You’ll get yours.

Eh. Looks like it’s back to earth with a typical cutter. Redevelopment rarely ever happens in time for anyone west of Albany. Glad I didn’t latch on to this one and put my crazy hat on (as usual).

Euro is king. No doubt. But you gotta lump the others in there! It had several runs that still showed Syracuse getting banged. BUF weather , were did you get a historical run?

The last storm your precious Euro consistently missed the taint. Just saying.

It’s a useful tool. It’s snowfall maps aren’t as aggressive as others so it’s crapped on. In the last storm I think it consistently showed Syracuse/ Fulton getting the shaft (correctly), no?

Hey! At least got something to watch! This thing is as precarious as a jenga game at a Parkinson’s convention.

I thought a typical Greenland block was active. I was looking at a sat loop and it looked that way to me.

I still can’t believe the primary goes south enough to allow redevelopment over south jersey. I still say it cuts but Think Snow might have the win. We certainly have blocking. But do we have enough HP in Canada to keep the bowling ball.

Couldn’t agree more. This has cutter all over it. Still up in the air about LES in BUF and Tug. You guys actually don’t want a transfer- obviously. I think that’s still a good possibility.

Dang I wish there was something to track. That early storm got me going and now I’m sitting here like, “ok, now what?”

Love it! Wet snow is the prettiest

Someone is getting a lot of slop. Killington?

There she goes. Didn’t stand a chance.