rochesterdave

Buddy in Glens Falls already has 11”. It’s been a while since the Albany region got slammed.

Snowing nicely in Pittsford. I love the look of radar. Matches up nicely (perhaps even NW) with short range products. Let it snow baby!

Lake enhancement could save a storm like this. Just too warm

Delta, thoughts on Monroe county? I saw earlier 2-4”. You still there or more optimistic? Point and Click gave a big jump to 6-10. I’m a bit hopeful we get into a back side band overnight. Staying at my folks in Pittsford to get as close as I can.

That’s all they ever really care about.

I love the grudging nature of the BUF disco.

I think it follows the lakes plain

The front was always taint. F’ing sucks but it always was. HRR (for what it’s worth) is still showing a nice slug of snow pinwheeling back west after midnight. That’s our hope. Pray it comes far enough west and isn’t taint.

I can’t figure how to upload the radar pro, p-type coefficient loop from BUF, but you can see that the changeover hits a brick wall over L Ontario. That should happen to you guys in the N Country too (I hope).

In the last frame it starts to get squashed. That’s what you’re gonna need. AND a prayer. Warm layer always 30 miles further than forecast- at least in WNY. Sleet and frz rain IMBY.

Yeah. A couple of the smart guys on the forum mentioned that yesterday. This storm is tricky. Roc has a DOUBLE challenge for forecasting: the front end p-type and later, the western cutoff. That fujiwara nonsense is way over my head (it probably happened once). Does the secondary tuck or is it a spread out mess? Tim, good point on heavy stuff changing sleet to snow- that’s what’s been happening up in Irondequoit. I know SE ROC is having a mess with frz rn

Definitely a bit cooler than I expected. HRR is initializing 3 degrees cooler at SYR than it had forecast just 4 hrs ago.

The skew T for ROC would be cool to see for right now. Where do you get yours from Freak?

Nice view. I have same app. I gotta track that screen.

ARW a crush job for finger lakes

Yeah, and with the cutoff, like Ayuud said, right across Monroe. It’s a 1 or 10” deal. Nightmare shit for a local forecaster. For what it’s worth, big fluffy flakes up here in Irondequoit. No real accums yet. Just a layer of sleet.

I’ve never liked this storm for Roc. The front end was always taint. And I never thought the secondary would push west enough. I agree 1” is probably ridiculous, I threw it down yesterday and stuck with it. 2-4” is a good call. Wayne county has always had a better shot. But you NEVER know how banding sets up. It can be 75 west or east of prog

I’m sticking with my numbers from yesterday BUF 1 ROC 1 (airport, East +) SYR 8 Fulton 8 Albany 13 (bust already)

Nice write up. Thanks for what you do! Anyway, read the early am disco from BUF, you’d hardly know there was a storm. They’re either gonna look like geniuses or morons. I give them credit for sticking to their guns- can’t be easy, especially Wayne NE. Sunday night...the initial surface low will weaken in the vcnty of the Southern Tier...while the secondary low will become better organized off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will encourage weak cold advection over our region to change any remaining mixed pcpn to some light to occasionally moderate wet snow. Much of the forcing for the pcpn Sunday night will come from being in the proximity of the upper low and from local orographics...although areas east of the Genesee Valley could experience a little lift from there nose of an easterly LLJ. This will largely depend on how far off the coast the secondary storm takes shape. In any case...most areas should pick up an inch or two of snow Sunday night...with 2 to 4 inches possible form the Finger Lakes eastward.

Gorgeous! Sign me up

With the primary over Detroit, there’s no way Roc doesn’t Torch. Syracuse too probably. I haven’t seen a single 700 layer profile that keeps us snow on the front. And you always gotta add 20-30 miles in the western zones. We can still get a snowstorm. It’s all on the second half. All depends on how far west those spokes rotate and how west the secondary tracks. Someone’s gonna be in that sweet spot where they win both. Oswego?

NAM 12k says, “Hello Buffalo” lol

Guys, you’ll hate me (more than usual) but I gotta give props to the ICON. It grabbed onto a pretty good solution early. It’s a little weirdo.

My beloved Canadian moved into 3rd. Guess it DID get an upgrade (for real).

BUF is gonna have to upgrade Oswego County (flyover Country or not)