rochesterdave

Glad the LE crew is getting their fix today. From upstream, it looks to maintain a SW a bit longer than anticipated.

Similar to icon, Canadian is showing a transfer to heavy snow on back side of the possible Miller A.

We have several synoptic opportunities coming up. But with the indices in the trash can, not sure what will happen. Definitely looks average or above average, in terms of temps, from here until Christmas. January is gonna be off the hook!

Yeah. I can recall a couple last minute saves. One was a tiny clipper that came down from Georgian Bay. The other was an extra long tail coming from some Buffalo LE.

With this start to winter, that wouldn’t be surprising. I hope that isn’t the case. I really love a white Christmas.

I’m gonna be focused on the period just before Christmas. Looks like a reasonable opportunity. Sorry that LES thing fell apart. It’s fun to see who comes out of the woodwork for those events. I can’t imagine the excitement those must generate. It’s a whole different beast. I get pumped for 1/2”/hr rates. Lol

I’m sad to be losing the snow cover over the next few days. Here in Rochester, we’ve built up a nice little base of 6-10” depending on your location. The eastern suburbs got a little fluff two nights ago, with nearly 3” falling in the usual Penfield, Walworth area and 1” up along the shore. It will be no match for the rain and near 50 temps rolling at us. Long term does look interesting. Cranky is advertising possible interior storm just before Christmas- and he’s usually spot on. Should got my Christmas trees already. Working today... .

My 4Runner has a center locker and limited slip in the rear. The A-TRAC System simulates a locked rear by applying brakes to the slipping rear tire. Pretty effective from what I hear. I’m just afraid that I’m limiting my potential by having these cheese ass tires. who knows, they might surprise me. it’s kinda fun to get into the nuts and bolts of how these vehicles work. I did not know Nissan had a locker on the xterra. Cool

Let me know what tires you’ve got. Lol

Good to know. I’ve just had these Bridgestones (Dueller HT Alenza) in slush and ice and can honestly say they suck. On dry, they’re amazing. Quiet, smooth and save me 2-3 mpg from the beefy off roaders.. So it’s pick ur poison. Great in the stuff or nice on the road. Your truck looks like a beast. Jesus Christ! That thing is worth more than my house!

I imagine,, like me, you purchased your Tundra with chasing intentions. My 4Runner came with beefy tires but I now have Bridgestone all season’s and I can already feel a big difference. Not sure I’d trust these in too much.

Do you have a favorite place to go? Or a favorite route to travel? It seems like such a waste to be only an hour or so away and not chase, but I always feel weird just driving around.... I drove to Redfield once and it literally took all day (There and back). It’s not very close.

This is from App Radar Scope (pro subscription- cheap) using the correlation coefficient lense

So what exactly is an analogue and how is it generated? I’ve always assumed it’s a comparison of old weather events matched up (in order of closeness) to expected weather events. But it’s got to be complicated. How does it know that you’re looking for data points: Buffalo, 5 days from now, snowstorm? im making it too complicated?

Syracuse and or E Wayne county could get whacked tonight!

38 in Buffalo. Mix line on the move. Snowing in Pittsford.

A number of models hinting at that. RGEM, GFS. If this could track even 25 miles further south it’d make all the difference.

Canadian has it too

HWO this far out?. BUF is ridiculous. LES in Erie county is the only thing they give a **** about. It’s been a slow start to the LES season, hope BUF gets some action. This far out, it’s impossible to figure on a wind direction. As others have said, S towns and Tug look interesting. But the through Wayne county in. Has SYR ever been last in the golden snowball? Don’t bet against them. Lol

Where are you CNY Rider?

It really was. Some of the Rochester Mets busted bad by expecting 6-12 (I guess it’s not too far off all said and done). It was never Roc’s storm. Wondering how the Syracuse boys did?

Not bad. I’m not counting future snow. 5” is a lot more than I expected. Be curious to see what the airport comes in with. Out my airplane window, looks like 3”, but I’m sure they’ll jack it up.

Congrats bro! North Country did great!

4 or 5 total in Pittsford. A good forecast from BUF. BUF gets skunked, as expected. The cause is getting hit.