rochesterdave
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Everything posted by rochesterdave
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Yep. Right now I think that’s a good call. Gonna be tight -
Do it! Do the shorts! Pleeeez
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At least it’s fun to watch. Maybe it comes down to the wire?
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These do really wacky things in the short term.
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Just great! Did you slip and hit your head? Lol. Enjoy. Matt and I will grump
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Euro moved the heavy snow axis 50 miles NW as compared to 6z and 75 miles compared to 0z. Big adjustment this late in the game. We all knew it was coming. I just don’t buy that it’s still the king. Maybe with 500 mb verification but that’s a useless parameter. Especially short term. Throw down your crown! Lol
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Pretty epic cave by EURO. What happened to that model?
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9z plume viewer is nuts. These storms are funny. Average for Roc is 6”. With lots waaay up there.
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I think it’s mostly snow. But it’s gonna take a miracle at this point.
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Maybe you’ll get it! The valleys south of Roc too. As Wolfie showed, NWS not buying it at all. Idk why?
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Hirez GFS bombs Toronto!
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Oops. Pivotal is out but not TT. Same thing though. Roc went from 2.6” at 6z to 2.1 at 12z. This is what happens when you puke out maps. Lol. Disappointing trends. If you can hear the Falls from your house, you might stand a chance. I just hope we don’t get ice. I can’t be without heat and tv. Ugh
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ICON has had a good fix on this for about 8 cycles. Toronto will be on the edge. Cottage country looks good (again).
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EURO is sad. Lol. It was a huge outlier anyway. That’s why you go with consensus and NWS BUF. They truly know what they are doing. On to the next one.
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RGEM clicked NW. this is why the trend maps help.
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Lots of sleet here but NAM 6z adjusts well south. AGAIN.
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Including the post LES. Could be a snowy couple days in Orleans and Niagara counties with 20” totals. Not sold… lol.
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That’s a good look. Wind vectors a good indication of temp profiles. LP SE of Utica at 992. Warning event for far NW counties.
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Heaviest axis now well within WNY. Gonna be interesting.
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Can you post the mean? Or panels?
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Just for entertainment. I really don’t expect a snowstorm. Maybe 20% chance for Rochester. 50% for IAG. But if this model was worth anything it screams snow. Some of the more respected models are getting problematic for ice with low level cold drawing off the lakes. Yuck!
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It’s gonna take a lot for this to come together. But 50% are hits
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Beat me by 3 mph! Lol
