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rochesterdave

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Everything posted by rochesterdave

  1. Delta, the other thing that u mentioned is important. The LP will be rapidly deepening as it passes East of us. Deepening lows always have surprising dynamics and a colder NW quadrant. im in agreement, this is a fascinating scenario. I’m not sure anyone can be sure.
  2. Models not doing what I hoped this 0z. Hmmm. So close!
  3. Maybe. I see Roc in the 5-8. BUF 6 sounds right. Syracuse screwed, again. Anyone else?
  4. Almost every hour this thing improves! Scott Hetsko is now on board!
  5. Subtle warming at the 700 and 800. Noise? Or coming more in line with gfs? Ugh
  6. NAM similar time 18z. A tad East and a couple mbs higher. Ehhh. Still warning amounts in the non lake shore areas.
  7. Anywhere east of Roc is screwed. Too close to the track. Roc is touch and go. I think enough cold air gets drawn in plus dynamic cooling. SYR in the screw zone...Matt...need I say more? Lol
  8. I truly believe this is gonna be big. All depends on changeover timing. Diurnal warming is negligible. Once it turns, it’ll accumulate. I expect warning amounts Rochester west. Bristol hills could see BIG totals. I’m also seeing enhancement signatures along the south shore in some of the ensembles. I love a late breaker. All said, it could fall apart nearly as easily.
  9. Obviously track dependent. The region 125-150 west of the LP is golden. BUF is way behind the curve on this one. Or, I’ll be made to look like an optimistic monkey- again.
  10. As I’ve been saying for days, this storm had all the ingredients. Crush job for elevations. Roc likely gets warning amounts as does BUF burbs.
  11. Thanks! MRI. Magnetic Resonance Imaging. The loud one.
  12. GFS finally showing the cold getting tapped. Big pull on the West side (from the HP). Euro might be intriguing
  13. I’ve had the luckiest week of my life. Passed my MR Registry (medical imaging board), got an unexpected raise, had a great trip to Chicago. If this thing happens, after jumping on it early, I’ll go buy a bunch of lottery tickets.
  14. The snowfall signature just keeps getting dragged further south into WNY. Gonna be close.
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