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rochesterdave

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Everything posted by rochesterdave

  1. I kinda like this set up for BUF. But I know very little about their LES. Lake still running warm?
  2. I know you guys hate the icon but I bet it verifies better in the NE. WTF is NAM smoking- it’s been highlighting Albany with a foot for days.
  3. Pauly, this is hr 39, right in the middle of the push. You need -5 to be all snow
  4. Yeah, LR did a little flip-a-rue. Lol. This time of year we’re bound to get something come down the pike.
  5. If you’re in an upslope area, you could see significant accumulation after that initial surge. But I’d be real cautious about getting my hopes up on these maps. The temp profiles are sh..
  6. Do the precip loop and try and see where all that snow is coming from. It’s entirely sleet. Sorry dude. NAMMED to be sure
  7. Ouch. That is ****ed. All of January shot? Luckily, I don’t believe in LR forecasting
  8. Got any links to understanding mjo and Northeastern weather. It’s like you guys are talking voodoo. I can’t find anything understandable on the Google machine.
  9. I have no freaking clue with this pattern. It’s like storms try and get a late start on the EC after being shredded. IDK. I’m losing hope here. Another week or so of ugly
  10. A Rochester special! Man, I gotta get out skiing once before Jackson Hole/ Big Sky. Everyone start praying to the snow gods
  11. Merry Christmas! Something will give in a week or so. Stay strong players
  12. It’s incredible to me that they’re getting worse- although it seems they are. Especially if you compare the Euro from 2-3 years ago. Ive had opportunity to see some of the advancements in what’s called : deep learning technology and I can’t believe it’s yet to be implemented into this field?!?! Deep learning is going to revolutionize data analysis. Up until recently, most Computer data was comprised of a majority of noise. The value portion, at least in Radiology, was 20%. Deep Learning wipes away that 80%, which is Useless noise, and leaves you with a superior product. I wonder when this will happen in the models? Maybe it has? I’m in the weeds here but it’s area that fascinates me (in a layman’s way). Take a single data point, say temperature, at KROC, on Dec 23, at 1200, up until now, most computers would assess this temperature on an open scale, it says, “jeez, this temp could be anywhere from 0kelvin to ~ kelvin. Deep Learning says, “nah, remove all that nonsense, we know this temp will be between -20f and 80f.” It doesn’t seem like much. But in the end you’re opening up tremendous opportunities and narrowing noise and error and speeding things up.
  13. Webster hasn’t been in the sweet spot. Areas away from the lake have- Pittsford, Penfield, Walworth and Airport (especially the airport )
  14. Oh you soothe soothsayer you! While Freak is enjoying his white Christmas and very excellent period, just following Christmas, the rest of us will be experiencing reality. I love him though. I really do. The outbursts have grown on me.
  15. I still feel like BUF is due. Syracuse too. We’ve been pretty blessed in Roc (even if the airport exaggerates a touch). Merry Christmas everyone!
  16. Clippers are 90% crap for Roc. Unless they go through N Pennsylvania, we downslope and end up with cold, windy weather and bare ground. It DOES look more interesting for BUF and the Tug who benefit from a SW flow and clipper moisture. No interesting synoptic or retrograde stuff until week 2 of January. Retrograde systems are fantastic for the south shore and there were some hints of a pattern like that late in the cycle
  17. Ugh. What a sh.. pattern. Right in time for Christmas. Highs near 50, Monday and Tuesday. Bye bye to the 4” we have. It’s gonna be at least after the first week of January before we have anything interesting. Looks like El Niño type crap. Ya never know, something could pop up. It’s been an active start!
  18. where do you find snowfall reports?? I’m drawing a blank. Dementia
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