Ehhh. The models were pretty consistent with pushing the -4 700 line well into Canada. That’s the one I watch. Go with the warmest model and add 30 miles. I’ve been burned too many times. The lake plain just ushers all that warmth right from Cleveland to Rochester, the escarpment changes a bit near Syracuse- so they sometimes hold on.
Enjoy Cali! I’m off to Wyoming and Montana in a few weeks. And then to your neck of the woods, specifically to Iceface Mountain, in February.