rochesterdave

I’m 47 and single. My two dogs fill in as my kids. It’s not some kind of conscious decision I made- just the way life worked out. It appears I’m rolling through this one solo. Which I’m ok with. I’d be lying if I said the thought of growing old, without the support of a family, isn’t a bit daunting, but it is what it is. I’ve become increasingly happy with the prospect. I do what I want, when I want. Plus, it’s easy to accumulate a bit of money when you’re not supporting others (not that money accomplishes anything worthwhile). The dogs are my companions and friends. They give more love than any human relationship I’ve had. So I understand how scary it is when they get sick. Hope everything works out for you guys with sick pets- sometimes their resilience is surprising!

Great pattern for the snow belts East of the lakes. Not sure I’m excited to go into a cold dry pattern (Rochester anyway). Oh well, beats this horribleness.

I’m starting to get excited for February. I really believe it will be a great month.

Pretty much! Lol next 24 hrs

SYRACUSE coming in strong on some of the short term models. Near 4”. Take it and run!

2” so far in Irondequoit. Not bad!

Models are actually trending in a more interesting direction suddenly. Maybe a Hail Mary?

RGEM really good at pinpointing mesos

I still play Jum Cantore. “WHOA!!!?!What was that? Thunder?”

This pattern has got to give

18z icon just takes that LP and shunts it right to the UP of Michigan. Several hundred mile difference from GFS in 24 hours. All courtesy of our lovely Bermuda hp. Puke

This storm was always a long shot. At least we got a couple clown maps out of it. Our disappointing winter persists. I still think February and March will be better. Can’t be worse?

The gfs 12z maps don’t correspond. The ice is north of the snow?!?! Anyway, a step in the right direction. It’s interesting that the ops have been so much further East than the ens. Probably due to the LP being depicted (on ensembles) to be in two very different regions to start. We’ve got a north camp and a south camp- the ops have all taken the southern route.

Take a quick look at this ridiculous stuff https://snowridge.com/live-feed/

Has it sailed? That was quick.

Snow Ridge getting slammed https://snowridge.com/live-feed/

Agreed

Obviously this would be problematic for snow. Baby steps.

The pics of the injured, scared Koalas just kill me. I’m not prone to hysteria but part of me thinks the earth might be completely fu..ed. Saw a satellite time lapse of arctic sea ice since 1980 and it’s almost gone. A real eye opener. Tell me that won’t have catastrophic effects upon our weather... Humans are a plague.

Freezing rain event is not predictable this far out. Too many nuances with the levels. If I had to guess, I’d figure the LP goes right for us. sleet to rain. Snow looks to be a tough buy. There’s gonna be a thin slice of heavy snow but it’s gonna be super compressed. Same with frz rain. Sleet could be the biggest precip, in terms of geographical coverage. What’s the trend been for storms? Certainly not colder. I’d follow the trend. Bing is dreaming. They gonna flood. Lol

This is exactly what I was talking about the other day. Storms can appear out of nowhere. Screw the long term. We have a real winter storm to track in the medium (almost short) range. Crazy how that can happen. Obviously, I’m hoping for snow but you can’t discount the possibility of sleet, the least consequential of all precip types.

Ensembles are crap for the entire run. All two plus weeks. Ugly. Man, I can’t even remember a stretch this sh.tyy

Downslope for KROC. Brief window of more northerly flow at the end of the short range (54-72 hrs). That should be good for a dusting that melts with the first ray of sunshine. Shake up looks on track for mid-late January. Feb and March look cold. Great analogue years (Bastardi Twitter). 1937 and 93. 93 u say? Lol. Just nailed down a trip to Brantingham Lake for the first weekend of March. They usually have fantastic snowpack by then.

This thaw would challenge even the best optimist. Lord knows I’m ready to give up. Maybe it’s worse because of the robust start? I was thinking old fashioned winter and instead I’m left with some early 80’s BS. Just remember, some of our best events don’t even show up until 120 hrs out. They can pop up from almost nowhere. That’s what I’m hoping on. I don’t care about staying power. I live for the ramp-up and the actual event. Afterwards I don’t care. It could melt in 2 days and I’d still be happy. Tough pattern. I’m thinking Feb/March are gonna be epic. Really.

The old squeeze play.