rochesterdave

I remember LES on a WNW trajectory where SYR would get 15-20” and we’d be sunny in the ROC. I feel like it’s been a long while. It seems like the jackpot zone moved to your SW and N. Anyway, you guys are due.

Can we pin a post? This can’t be said enough. These are losers 90% of the time.

Stark differences from the disco mentioning blizzard conditions just a couple periods ago.

Guidance coming in quite a bit cooler. I’m confused.

NAM upper levels definitely trending colder. Interesting.

The snowiest period for Roc should be late Thursday-Friday am (decent NW trajectory on reasonable winds). I don’t see more than 1-2” from our Saturday system and follow up. The LE following is on a WNW and waaay too strong for ROC. Hope I’m wrong. Still a few days away.

I think we are definitely looking at a more WNW situ with this track. Wolfie appears to be in the sweet spot! All in: BUF 2-4 ROC 2-4 SYR 6” Tug region 14”

That area is sneaky impressive with NW flow. I drive down the east side of Skaneateles lake and I’m always surprised by the snow amounts! Cool area.

Syracuse gonna start making its move?

You understand verication chart uses like a single metric divided over all of North America? Yeah, the big data models gonna win. When most of the board was jumping on a big weekend snowstorm, the ICON and me were saying, maybe slow up. The euro has been pretty crap this year. It did ok with this one. It’s still the king but I think it’s lost some luster. And I’ll be the first to say my verification record is not great. But the constant barrage of hatred towards the ICON is more about the message and less about the messenger. It’s warm- and so far at least 75% of our tracks have ended up warm. IDK. I can recall winters where everything ticked SE as time progressed. This ain’t that winter.

All I’m saying is it’s a useful tool. Fair enough. The GFS looks more like what we will get but the ICON said, “push it NW to be safe”. It got an upgrade this year and I think it finds the warm bias. In a year like this, it’s sniffed out the cutters and crap temp profiles earlier than the others. It’s less apt to throw out weenie snow maps. We all know the GFS 120 maps need to be divided by a factor of 3 to be anywhere near accurate. Wolf, a lot of this isn’t even directed to your area because, well you know, u might as well live in an entirely different climate. The thruway’s temp profiles can be 10 degrees warmer than you Hill people. Ive found it to be surprisingly accurate this year. Plus, I gotta model hug. Last year it was the GEM, I figured, ‘why not the ICON this year?’ Lol

Gotta love the minimas over BUF and KROC. You guys are wrong about the icon. It consistently performed better with Saturday’s storm. You just can’t stand that it often advertises the correct temp profiles. Yeah. It’s warm biased. So are our storms. It’s been right over and over again in this region (so don’t go showing me the verification charts- GFS had Saturday’s storm over N PA).

I actually think you could get into it for a bit.

Yep. Once those rails get laid...

I’m off to Jackson Hole next week. They’ve been getting crushed. Everytime I check their cams it’s like a snow globe. I’m so psyched.

You should be golden that far north

I was just thinking about you. P-burgh looks dang good for this one.

Euro so far NW it doesn’t spin off a secondary. Wow.

It’s a Colorado low. No? Anything that moves inside of us I refer to as a cutter.

Exactly. “but this storm is different “ nonsense never adds up. It’s track dependent. Always.

The stripe of heavy snow, well into Ontario, is with the main system. The rest is lake effect combined with front end. A couple members look like they want to develop a secondary in time to save the northern zones (don’t hold your breath). At least the ground should be white this time next week.

With the track over the lake it putts the valley in a downslope situ. It’s rain by then anyways. Turn off the faucet.

The one limited factor for south shore LE, following ‘the storm’, will be wind. But, it’s the only interesting game in town. So we watch. Im just blown away by BUFS excitement for this weekends storm. They act as if a 5 year blizzard is on its way. From my perspective this storm looks about as impactful as the last one (not very). They are usually right. Just don’t see what they see.

That’s actually a pretty great set up. Give it time

It’s gonna be tough to have have two potential snow makers track right over us with their taint. Just when you thought this crap couldn’t get any worse 19/20 winter says, “hold my beer”.