rochesterdave

ICON develops a nice little storm that remains pretty far east. Typical S shore action but most of the synoptic fun would remain well SE of most of us.

Looks like it could stay all snow/sleet in the furthest northern part of NYS. But now’s a good time to remind myself of the rule: add 30 miles or so to the warm push. It always beats the models by at least that.

Canadian doesn’t ever get a good second storm to develop. They almost become one and the trough leans forward. First half a tiny bit cooler.,

GFS comes really close to a great run. Hopeful stuff.

Early 2000’s were pretty cool too. Syracuse would routinely get big lake effect snow storms. It’s just the year. Like Freak keeps saying, there’s just nothin stopping the warmth. I think if we get a good second storm, Syracuse will be fine. The temps were crashing at hr 84 and we have a 980’s LP near Philly moving North. Everything I know says that’s a beauty for CNY and WNY. At least we have something to track. Paulie could get lucky and stay all snow for both, but he needs it colder. Everyone goes to mix on the first one (according to NAM).

The 700’s are crashing here. Everyone goes back to snow. But for how long. It’s a decent look for 2nd half. First one is pretty crappy.

Taint line moved north 400 miles in 18 hrs. These models have no clue

Amped=NW=rain all the way to Montreal.

You don’t want amped

Truth. But come on, we all knew, right??

The only consistency is a slow drive towards worse.

NAM drives rain/ frz all the way to Montreal on first batch. Ya gotta watch the 700’s.

NAM looks like it’s setting up for a nice storm on Friday. Who knows. The front end has a lot more Ptype issues even compared to the 12z.

Maybe we can get a trend back to a good storm?

Yeah. They just get shunted. I forget who it was but one of the big brains in here poopoo’d the entire set up because the indices were crap. One of reasons was lack of any blocking. You’ll notice a few of the normal members haven’t even bothered with this storm. Smart! On the up side, the Friday thing still looks interesting- until it doesn’t. Lol

Look at those HP’s!! How does this become a torch fest!?!? This winter..

I’m gonna testify to my stupidity here; how does one know if a system closes off. Do you look at the 500 and want a full circle at the base of the trough?

CMC is a best case scenario. Pretty decent run.

How do you get a 986 LP over Albany and not give WNY a snowstorm?

Syracuse to the mid 50’s

Torch. F thiswinter

I thought transfer usually dragged down cold faster?

Dang. It’s dead in here

6z runs maybe a little better.

It’s hard to avoid panic. I never learn. What does that weirdo say, ‘the windshield wiper effect’. All the ingredients still there. This winter is tough and we will need to draw an inside straight to get a big one with all these moving parts!