rochesterdave

If only there was some cold air. The 850’s and 700’s are so close. It’s wild watching the surface LP placement from run to run. They are jumping around by hundreds of miles. Makes a big difference for Erie, CLE and Toronto.

3k is interesting but it’s the NAM

It looks like a marginal elevation thing. At best. Just no cold air. It’s weak. It wobbles. Looks like an upper level Spring storm. And GFS says we do it again at 170 hrs

The 850’s actually look interesting. All the way to Syracuse. It’s the NAM tho

Toronto? Again! Lol

I don’t mean to be negative. But this will be the second storm with this La Niña type track. Its gonna get old fast. If it nudges just a bit east Toronto could get smacked again.

A track into CNY is just anomalous. Its my favorite track but only happens once or twice a year and sometimes rides a front. The true A’s that go into CNY are monsters for Rochester. BUF looking good in the aftermath.

For entertainment purposes at this point. But interesting to note the HP placement. One would think that would allow for cold air.

Nobody wins! Lol

18Z NAVGEM looks interesting still.

Obviously a thread the needle/ low probability deal. But fun to watch. With the indices being what they are, we should see something interesting in early December, no?

Damn. I wish I lived in a true LES zone. Can you all imagine how nuts I’d be with that amount of junk being pumped into my veins? My buddy has a cabin just opposite the Hill in W Adirondacks, Brantingham, - I’m gonna try and get up there for one big one this year. Unfortunately, my money making hasnt kept up with the insane property value inflation up there. Waterfront cabins that were 225k two years ago are now 375-400 and you can’t even buy one (they go so fast). So my dream of owning a property up there is likely delayed. Luckily, my buddy is kind. If he ain’t using it and it’s not rented out, I can go.

Entertainment purposes only. It’s gonna GL run IMO

If it came to fruition the way the ICON depicts, someone in SW NY gets 3 feet

Going to be interesting to see the snowfall outputs on this one. The icon doesn’t usually offer up extreme events this far out

Assuming that’s for Buffalo lake effect?

Our first storm is a GL Runner. As I expected. It should set up a SW wind LES event for you guys in BUF. Here in the ROC and SYR, we get nothing. And I’m not hanging my hat on a nor’easter that far away. Ugh. Off to a fine start Stanley. Lol

Crazy 7 day. Looks like a spring wx pattern. Upper levels spinning around like pinwheels

Crazy run on the 18z GFS.

Fun while it lasted. Lol. SW LES opportunities afterward seem like the only chance now.

Yowzer. This would be an inland runner. It’d go west of this if you ask me (I know, nobody asked lol). A track up into CNY is climatologically pretty rare for an A. It’ll probably go up the coast or into Michigan. Now we hope for an eastward trend. Fun to watch for sure!! Solid cartoon of A vs B. I’m not sure why everyone found it so funny? Simplistic? I guess. But pretty accurate. The Bs almost always give WNY a front end thump followed by rapid redevelopment just S of NYC and the fun begins for ENY while we warm and drizzle. A’s are usually good for CNY and ENY. The big ones can get WNY in on the action (Storm of the Century 93). Happy Thanksgiving everyone. I’m so glad to be back having fun watching this stuff!

Is the GFS PARA not active? I thought that was the new one? Only seems to be running once or twice a day? Did they give up on it already? Remember all the epic snowfalls it showed last year when only one or two ever came to fruition? I recall that one run where it had BUF and just BUF getting 3 feet inside of 84 hours. I think it was all rain.

Wolfie beat me as usual. But we can watch this. Split the Canadian and GFS for something interesting.

Wow. Toronto with 19cms according to Twitter. What is that? 7.5”? Not bad.