rochesterdave

These models have me giddy

I vaguely recall something like that. Tim?

RGEM came NW a big bump. Loving the trend! We’ve gotta bear in mind that this is not atypical for 48 hours out and that they usually correct back at a certain point. I wonder what the ICON has consistently seen to do stubbornly kept us in the game? I think the ICON got an upgrade last year. 0z EPS were pretty far NW too. I’d love to see one of the big operational show it....

3k NAM creeping NW. it’s gonna be big somewhere close

Canadian made a pretty big jump. Puts the LP in SE NJ at 998.

Thanks! Yeah, they are bad. I’ve learned the hard way, over the years, to mainly trust the big 3-4 operational models. Especially in the mid range.

GFS throwing some love at WNY

What exactly are SREFS? Are they a NAM product?

You are asking me to make sense of mushed-up conspiratorial thinking. It’s not possible. You clearly don’t understand how vaccine trials work. A third group that is purposefully exposed?!?! Ridiculous.

18z is closer to closing off, which would drive everything north

Wow! That’s wild. 75% are great hits. I guess it’s like you said, bad luck. That HP putting a hurt on us. Ive not totally given up. But close

Really!? Did you not see the graphs showing how those who got placebo continued to contract the virus while those who got the vaccine didn’t? DO YOU THINK THE CDC/FDA IS LYING TO YOU? What’s their motive? I believe that you’ve embraced a certain narrative and no matter what anyone says or proves you’ll continue to hold firm to whatever your right wing propaganda is. Im getting the Pfizer vaccine on Wednesday because I’m a frontline medical worker. Can’t tell you how grateful I am to be getting that. I scanned three desperately ill people on Sunday. All in their early 50s/ late 40s. Perhaps you should read above and see that Steve’s kid caught it. Instead of spreading dangerous nonsense perhaps you should broaden your perspective beyond Newsmax, OAN and talk radio. It might save a life. SMH

You win! Awesome

Yep

Yeah. The ‘WE’ doesn’t include me. The BUF and Watertown folks just love these disasters. In ROC they mean heavy rain followed by wind and cold. Zero snow. Ugly. Sorry. I’m bitter. Im so disappointed in this winter. We can’t win. Do you know how absolutely disgusted I’m gonna be when Philly has 3x the snow total than we do? Puke

Lock it in. Where the heck did you find CRAS?!?!? Is that the Brazil model?

But I also think it has to do with if the 500 closes off. As you can see, it does not on the GFSbut does on the NAMbeing right on the north side of a closed 500 is usually the sweet spot.

Forcing on NAM vs GFS. Night and day for CNYgfs

I don’t this storm has the dynamics or duration to justify those amounts. I think it’ll be a lot of 8-12” totals in the sweet spot. But I’m usually wrong...

We have a closing off here. I think this is what makes the difference. GFS (0z) is wide open and progressive here. RGEM joined GFS camp. likely getting NAM’ed

6z NAM. Good Morning

EPS crept north

GFS has been winning for a while

Honestly Matt, if the look was the Icon and the 0z NAM, at 3 days out, I’d still have hope. But they (and the Ukie) are off on their own. And none of them are great models this far out. Obviously, I’ll still watch but we all know this one was sunk when the EURO jumped to the GFS. It’s one more feather in the cap of the goofus. It really has been hot for this lame winter.