rochesterdave

Pretty cool how it keeps back building on radar. Precip signature was well represented on RGEM yesterday

All they care about is Lake Effect. Let me translate- less lake effect snow in Buffalo

It’s been snowing pretty good in Rochester since 2am. We’ve probably had .3” of qpf but none of it has stuck. It’s mostly all melting on impact. Sad.

Better late than never. GFS and EURO miles apart

Idea of a Christmas synoptic wave is decidedly out of favor with the 0z runs thus far. Including ensembles

Canadian wants to give us a few inches in the next few days

Nope. I actually traded that Norwood field goal for the Storm of the Century.

They always get so excited about lake effect. It’s the only time you can tell they’re excited. Heck, I guess it makes sense given their location. But it’s so dang predictable. “CIPS...Stay tuned.” Lol. If I had to guess (and you all know I’m terrible at this), I’d think BUF is looking good. The set up is there. It’s a perfect time frame. You’re due!

GEFS a touch East of 12z 18z

There ya go BUF

ICON only out to 120 for 18z but it shows a much different look. Runs an impulse up early- into Michigan....Not what I’d want. But it’ll change 19 more times.

Where do I sign?

I usually think of a big LP centered just S of Hudson Bay as the set up for the epic SW wind trajectory events. Couple showed that earlier.

Member 7 would get it done for all. HEY! We took a huge step in the right direction today. As was discussed yesterday, these wave runners are tough. It’s great to see all the models locking onto what was once just an ICON and GFS fever dream. Looks like someone gets the prize of waking up to a white Christmas! As I see it, we have two camps: a cutter that traverses NW and gives BUF and the Tug big LES after the rest of us losers get a flash freeze OR an inland track up the Appalachian spine that crushes big territory in WNY/CNY followed by a N-NW wind that adds inches to the areas that got hit hardest (Roc-SYR). The BUF team (and Wolfie) probably want #1. The rest of us would probably prefer #2. lots of time but dang boys- we got fun coming

I am and will continue to model hug. Even 8 days out, if a 6 or 18z iteration calls the storm off- it’s off. Same the other way. If kuchera shows two feet, two weeks out- it’s good. If not. Bad. Hahaha!

Seems the excitement might be over.

Where are you? Where will you be snowmobiling?

This would make this whole crappy year worth it! Lol

Christmas event does have the hallmarks of a big LES storm east of the lakes. Only hope for the rest of us (beyond a spray) is that wave; which, as Delta said, is a very tentative situation. I’m sure all the mets around here are going to get all excited and promise a white Christmas, entirely forgetting that Roc does terrible with these set-ups.

Ehhh. I wouldn’t hold my breath on the Genny Valley seeing more than a dusting in that scenario. Downsloping, wind trajectory, wind speed, subsidence time etc. We don’t do well with these. If it does the GFS- Rochester would be the sweet spot. Canadian or Icon- I’d want to be in the traditional LES zones (including North Buffalo). Lots of time!

ICON is a good demonstration of what usually happens wit a storm that goes west of us= rain followed by wind and cold. Very little snow unless you are in the hills South of BUF or on the TUG.

Canadian goes over us. Followed by big LES in traditional belts with blizzard like conditions there.

This would be one hell of a Christmas Eve! Lol. It’ll change 24 times.

Agreed. EPO controls that raging Pacific jet (no?) which has been our downfall these last winters. We’ve got to give these features time to develop before being rushed OTS. BING got it because the storm caught and turned at just the right latitude. Everything else seems to be lined up nicely but I’m no expert on indices- that would be BUF Weather, Freak, Wolfie or SYRmax

It’s shocking. They got half of their seasonal total in about 18 hours. It’s the most incredible synoptic storm I’ve EVER seen (on a local level). So close to all of us!