rochesterdave

Would synoptic discussion stay here or lump it all together?

“Troubling” “easily” lol. You guys in for a wild ride. Synoptically, GEFS doesn’t look good. It’s just one run.... I’m glad BUF disco thinks the cold air beats the moisture exiting and I think they said a few inches area wide.

Indices being what they are and given what the last storm did, my main concern is this shifts west or continues to go right over us. Obviously the best track for the majority of the forum is up the Hudson River Valley. The UKIE and the EURO are getting close to complete busts for Rochester to Syracuse. The Euro is close to being solid though (energetic little wave!). These next 48 hours are going to be critical- if it is progged to go any further west we won’t be able to rely on any last minute tick east. I still like the set-up and I still think we look good in Gennessee Valley and West. All the traditional lake effect folks are golden. How many Christmas dumps have you guys had? I feel like it happens a lot for BUF! Fun stuff boys. Merry Christmas. Hoping it’s real white!!!!

Euro output?

All of my concerns listed here. But 99 was kind of similar. I really think someone does well. Multiple waves move up that front, quickly. Which is why I’m really hoping one can get some traction South of us and buckle that front. I believe we see that on GFS and at the end of RGEM. I like the possibility especially over Gennessee Valley. I’ve been wrong before (like all the time) and I’ll be wrong again but I like this set up. 6”+ The Lake Effect members are golden. This is a solid set up

A little buckle in the last two frames in PA. That’s what we need for this to synoptically over perform.

I like this set up. These can surprise us. I’m disappointed that winds don’t line up NE. My first call is 9” for Roc and 2 feet to follow in BUF after 3” synoptic. The eastern zones are gonna initially toy with the taint

Just FYI. If you hold your finger down anywhere on the actual tidbits map and then hit copy, you can then paste the image right into the text block on this forum (just hold down where you’re typing and hit paste). You don’t even need to mess with the files or media tabs. Try it. The images will be cleaner than a screen shot. At least it works for my iPhone. It’s a perfect track. So after BUF gets its 2 feet maybe we can follow! Lol

A good watcher! Looks like it wants to retrograde or at least stall.

Synoptically, I don’t love that GFS and Canadian show the snow after the LP is north of us. Almost post CF snow- which we all know doesn’t exist. I want that LP twisted and east of us. The snow belts are golden. No question there.

Double phase?

Wow

Deepening as she lifts. Never let your guard down on a wave that’s deepening pretty rapidly like this. This would put down a quick 6”+

That’s my biggest concern too. We need this wave to buckle

That LP cranking up in CPA is a good look

ICON jumps a touch west.

The signs are there for a big snowstorm somewhere in our region on Christmas Eve. How cool is that?!?!?!

Vort, you might just be right! Hope so. I love reading your analysis’. We’ve got some great members from this area.

Yeah. Transfers to the coast and straight up. That is what good indices will get ya. I guess

Off topic but look what popped up for Maine! It was 500 miles east last run. Boston better watch it’s ass

Euro with a secondary over the Dacks. Not sure if it’s enough but I like that it’s there!

We are getting that regardless. Unfortunately. A lot of CNY can sustain that but the snow will be gone everywhere else. Which is why the wave is so important for the Niagara frontier and Gennessee valley. The traditional snow belts are golden in my mind. Lots of time. Kind of like where things stand 5 days out!

Canook trying to get its act together. LP over CPA.

Wow! Yeah, nada up in Irondequoit. It was beautiful last night. Went for a Jeb walk at 2am.

Thoughts on Christmas Eve? Like you said, the models are having a heck of a time figuring out wave and CF placement. It’s like one of those 300 level physics problems: if a train is moving at 70mph and John shoots his gun at a Bison, how many feet ahead of the Bison should he aim? There are so many moving parts! These things usually have a pretty narrow swath of snow east to west going south to north; it’ll basically be luck. Obviously, south shore is in good shape if the wave forms anywhere SE of us. We might not hit the synoptic maxima but we’d have N winds to guarantee love from Ontario. If it forms west of us, it’s done- flash freeze and nada.