rochesterdave

RGEM has been killing it

I’ve been wanting to mention that! I don’t have high hopes, obviously, for the next one. It’s that Atlantic high like Wolfie mentioned. You could see it backing in with the last one. We need something to start 1000 miles east of us. Lol

restarting north

Sure......

Another cutter.

The problem with these anafrontal lows is that their snowfall is so narrow. You get like two counties wide in snow spread. That’s impossible to forecast. And I don’t care what anyone says, after the front passes everything shuts off. There is NEVER post frontal snow accumulations unless you’re in traditional lake belts.

I’d rather have it here knowing the indices and our record.

Found it! I’m snowdogdave@snowdogdave

Can you be more specific? I want to follow you. What is your @?

Good luck. Take chances

60 likes in minutes

Famous

BUF reporting heavy snow and visi.25. I always knew they were a lock. Point and click calling for 10-16” on the day. What it must be like!!!!!!

You got your answer

GPS can screw you bad up there too

It’s not your point but haven’t we gotten a lot more data sets, since 2001, that can more firmly point in that direction though? Wouldn’t that reversion to mean have started to occur? I wish politics weren’t involved but it was inevitable. I see similarities with the vaccine stuff. I do agree that most of our belly-aching is just random variance. Possibly with one or two exceptions. If you hit black on the roulette wheel for 3 straight, your chances of hitting on black for the fourth spin are still 50/50. Even though it doesn’t seem fair- surely red is due!

Oooph. That stings

That is crazy

It’s weird, on the west end of Erie and also south of Huron, you can clearly see radar signals moving nearly due south while the band is oriented SW to NE. Almost perpendicular. Obviously, different levels. It’s surprising that shear isn’t tearing the band apart- but it’s not.

I don’t even see a mechanism for this?

Man, BUF really cashed in this Christmas. Amazing the difference 60 miles makes. Let’s go guys! I want to see pics! Anyone chasing? I know Delta wanted to.

GFS actually performed very poor. It had it waaay east until just prior. It moved the storm at least 100 miles west in 24 hrs. It seems to grab the idea(long range) ok but just murders the details. RGEM did great once it was in range. As did the 3k NAM. Euro did well.

GFS has at least 4 cutters. No snow outside the traditional early winter snow belts. Transient, windy weather. It’ll change.

Mood flakes and a dusting in my yard! I’ll take it.

It’s gorgeous. Winter wonderland!