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rochesterdave

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Everything posted by rochesterdave

  1. rochesterdave
    It could just be a couple wild runs but you can’t discount the NAM. It would still be a front thump of 4” or so followed by a couple after the taint but you can say goodbye to any shot at 10” or 12”
  2. rochesterdave
    Go damned Jamestown.
  3. rochesterdave
    What Buf was warning us about. A sickening trend. But you can’t discount it.
  4. rochesterdave
    If the primary hangs on to Rochester- all bets are off. The mix line would go to Watertown.
  5. rochesterdave
    So we go from mixing worries to suppression worries in one run? This is exciting! Lol
  6. rochesterdave
    You’ve got at least another 6 weeks to wait buster.
  7. rochesterdave
    GFS pulled back a bit but still solid.
  8. rochesterdave
    Yeah. I kind of like this look. Not gonna break records but I think it might be a solid mid sized storm.
  9. rochesterdave
    Meso GFS says FU
  10. rochesterdave
    They have you right near the sweet spot! Where system qpf meets LES qpf maxima. Looks good to me. Now we hope we don’t get a rogue warm layer.
  11. rochesterdave
    High end?
  12. rochesterdave
    Yeah. And like Buf said, you really almost always have to add some to that. Close…
  13. rochesterdave
    Nice look to me…
  14. rochesterdave
    Freaking constantly!
  15. rochesterdave
    Move that mix line north 50 miles and it’s over the lake….we’ll see
  16. rochesterdave
    Yeah. It has done well. Even in longer range. Can’t discount it
  17. rochesterdave
    I guess it’s possible. I don’t see it this far north. Not with this HP
  18. rochesterdave
    I think this is the wildcard. Anywhere from Buffalo to western Syracuse could see a few extra inches of fluff. I’m expecting it tbh.
  19. rochesterdave
    Euro really doesn’t like this storm for WNY. It’ll be fun to see which is right- GFS VS EURO
  20. rochesterdave
    It’s a nice run. I feel pretty optimistic that a lot of us see low end warning amounts.
  21. rochesterdave
    That still leaves most of us safe. Why so worried? I agree with you about 25-50 miles with the 850
  22. rochesterdave
    Weak sauce. Lol. I’m not giving up. We’ve got time to trend juicier. No reason this can go juicier.
  23. rochesterdave
    Definitely a possibility. Still early. LP track is somewhat favorable for WNY. But the other issues might bend the balance. I’ll still take 4-8?
  24. rochesterdave
    Keying on some enhancement which I believe is the variable needed to make this a solid event along the thruway (Buf-Roc).
  25. rochesterdave
    NAM offering up a long duration southern solution. Looks reasonable.
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