rochesterdave

Hope this jump is just the typical 18z nonsense. I’ll wait for the 0z suite before worrying about taint. It was about a 40 mile jump north with the 0C line. Brings trouble to the 5 and 20 line. My bigger concern is it would step on any enhancement the south shore could see. It’s ridiculous to be over analyzing this little storm and yet...here I am

ROC never does well with a track north of the border of PA. The warmth always gets further north and we lose the upper air support for any enhancement. Hopefully the Euro solution holds

We need a track into CPA

That’s always a shit track. Always. The warmth flies right up the lake plains

NAM looks real north

Just for Tim

Yeah. I hate kuchera maps. In this case I think it was an inch or two apart. So I threw it out there. I think enhancement is the real wild card. Rochester can easily double global outputs with these tracks. 4 becomes 8. Not a huge storm just a great track for a change. Sorry Bufwx lol

Perfect track for Rochester if it can hold together and give us a NE wind. I see warning stuff

Judging by my Ring Doorbell, it looks like Irondequoit only scored a few inches. 3-4”? So I’m glad I didn’t miss a big one. Buddy in Webster got 6-8”

Stupid iPhone

Up here on the Tig and it’s killing it in Irondequoit. Still beautiful up here. 42” at Snow Ridge over last week. 11” last night. Deep powder.

On my way to the tug. Wish me luck! Gonna be hairy

Here comes the kicker. Should re-align

See! You get it. I like your equation. Why wouldn’t you want them to self correct? We see these biases and they go untouched- they simply persist. Don’t get me started on Bitcoin. I’ll have to kick it to the banter section. “The monetary value is based on mining an equation that grows tougher over time”

That’s my biggest beef with the models. They don’t learn. Daytime high temps are always too low and snowfall is always too high. As soon as AI gets integrated into these things we’ll see rapid improvement. We’ll also be really disappointed with accurate snowfall maps- cut them in half or so. These models readily lend themselves to AI corrections. It would only take a season or two. Tons of data is available. In fact, they could run them historically and have corrections built-in within hours. I wonder if there’s a way to monetize that because it’s going to be drastic. Probably already occurring in the commodities hedge fund computers. Big money in oil futures based on temp forecasts. I’ve always thought this forum could beat that market.

I’m thinking I love it! These always deliver. Long ways to go.

Meant to post it

GFS unusually impressed with east of Ontario tonight through Saturday morning. Big time totals on the tug. I’ll be at Snow Ridge and Brantingham- so on the near the tug. Snow Ridge’s vertical is the eastern drop off of the Tug, do you’re not really ‘on’ it. And Brantingham is in the western foothills of the ADK’s. Lowville is in the valley, between the two and receives MUCH less snow than either. Whetstone park is just NW of Snow Ridge and is truly on the Tug. It’s one of the only accessible areas from the east side. Last March I went there and they had 2.5 feet of pack. Lowville had about 4”. 15 miles apart.

Look at UKIE picking up on Ontario enhancement. These are great tracks for the thruway communities. Could Rochester get lucky finally? Will I have to mail an apology letter to BufWeather for dismissing his January excitement? Lol

Not a bad set up. That’s what we need. The kink in the isobars is a nice addition. As always, we’ll be fighting the dry but the lake has still gotta be warm.