rochesterdave

Still snowing

Great run for Rochester. Even BUF gets into it.

BWI and DC almost always get screwed. Harrisburg to Scranton up over to S. Vermont would be my best guess. I still like SE finger lakes for secondary sweet spot. But that’s a little more tentative. Do you pick a single station as the winner?

Much bigger storm than I remember.

Hi RES Canadian had a decent take but about 50 miles too SE. right?

Craziest synoptic feature I’ve ever seen. It just stayed there!

Actually it’s a lot further NW than any of the guidance prior to the Binghamton special. Which is why I’m staying hopeful something gives.

Baby steps. 18z GEFS better across the board incrementally

Another meh front end on GFS.

Local mets aren’t touching this thing yet. Can’t say I blame them. 1”-1 foot. Lol. Instead they are talking about how cold it’ll be tonight. Hahaha Penn Yan has a 42.5” member. Oh boy. Crazy town

Here ya go Matt, a frame we both like!

Slamming!!!!

Thanks! True.

Really we are about 60-72 hours out from the main event. So we have time. Gotta be honest, NAM really bothers me. It definitely sided with the southern of the two solutions. NYC weenies jumping for joy. Lol

3k NAM actually looks better than 12 k. Which is super unusual.

NAM is almost always the most aggressive NW scenario. Just saying.

NAM took a step back

It’ll be a little heart breaking if it goes back the other way. We don’t have long...

It’s amazing. Like two different storms here. The one shows everything staying south of the PA border. The other shows big snow getting all the way to Buffalo. Very few in betweeners! What gives!?!?

So the EURO came in hot!! To me, this just never looked like a suppressed megalopolis storm. But it wasn’t until we got some blocking that it really looked interesting. Definitely has the capacity to be a big one. That deformation zone is going to be key. Has King weighed in? Wolfie mentioned these have trouble throwing precip back too far, and he’s right. South shore enhancement might be the key to getting the Buf-Syracuse region into the fun. Watch Binghamton get another 2’. Lol I think it’s going to be a BIG ONE! It’s ringing all my bells. Fun to watch for sure.

It’s interesting, the NAM brings it with the thump but the others bring it with the wrap. We only have 1 or 2 more run cycles before the models head back SE. Really tight. I’ll be curious to see what BUF writes. I imagine they’ll be siding with the southern camp. The offices down in DC/ Philly and NYC seem VERY confident.

PARA?

UKIE kuchie?!?! I wanna main line it.

Common with lake effect. Not common with this. BTW, after spending the last two nights in Pittsford, I’ve returned to lake shore in West Irondequoit. Grand total? 1/2”. Seriously. Lol. We did end up with about 3” fluff in Pittsford.