tombo82685

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html

Don't mean to bombard, but you are correct. There is actually a paper out that shows evidence that when you get a rather robust phase 3 mjo that propagates around, like we had last year that it does lead to a SSW if the conditions are favorable. With how weak the PV got in late nov I wonder if we had a more robust mjo signal through phase 3 would it of initiated anything. Though, we really didn't get a strong wave 2 hit on the pv after the wave 1 displacement which is needed usually. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL053144

Yea it’s a bit wetter for you. I haven’t kept track of when you guys changeover. I’ve been using the 546thickness as the start looking aloft signal. So 12z run had .25 a little west of dc at 15z Wednesday. This run brings .25 into DC now with 546 thickness exactly the same