tombo82685

dynamic cooling ftw

Welp, Got my settlement. I will be in lowville starting Nov 22

Thanks, I love winter time for obv reasons. I feel pattern recognition is a bit easier to decipher unlike summer where shorter wavelengths can really screw you. Looking forward to some lake effect events over the area and hopefully in Lowville. Never really experienced one obv down in SEPA.

Just away from Erie with some elevation could pound decently saturday. good cold aloft, issue being surface. So intensity will surely be needed to dynamic cool down to surface. Decent omega as well in DGZ

Fwiw, weeklies looked good first couple weeks then get a bit meh for remaining weeks

Strong wave 2 look stretching SPV tgiving week imo adds a bit of confidence for a possible good cold shot. All depends though on SPV alignment, but as of now looks good for delivering cold south. I know some have said stuff about pv being stronger than normal right now, while true, it also remains de-couple from troposphere

Lol I def agree. I mean 72-96” I can’t imagine happens that frequently while 1-4” is very common yet so small to see

I’ll take my 1-2” even though I’m not there yet lol

and what plays a good role in controlling the pacific jet is the MJO. Last year the base state was in the IO, which isn't good. This year it looks to be in maritime continent which isn't good but it may be able allow better chance to get into money phases. Convection has stalled in maritme region as of late which has been the reason for pac jet being slop. Hoping it keeps pushing into 7-8-1 as we move past tgiving . When the MJO isn't in your favor you then look at the strat to see if you can get help from that. Luckily we have a strong wave 2 showing up just prior to tgiving week which I feel will deliver a good cold shot around Tgiving timeframe as I have been posting.

Latest gfs run from 0z this morning has removed heat flux into stratosphere that it was showing a few days ago. Has been a good correlation with any strong bout of heat flux, we get a period of -NAM to follow. Anyways, wrote about this I believe this past weekend about wave 2 hit on SPV near tgiving,. Can now see this on the strat maps. I'm looking for a good cold shot around tgiving timeframe, if current progs hold on

One thing we can surely say, atleast as of right now, Canada won't have a shoratge in cold heading towards Dec

Something to pay attention down the road as we get towards Thanksgiving. Almost everytime we have had a strong heat flux in the Strat, we have gotten a -NAM response following it. Can see we have another one building week of 20th, does that lead to another -NAM period after around or after Thanksgiving?

+pna this week and next week, but then gets flattened out a bit due to lower hgts in GOA region. EPO zone looks neutralish. Looks like some high lat blocking in the AO and NAO domain for thanksgiving period to start of december, then that wanes towards mid month. Then the pac improves by that time.

weeklies look good still through mid dec. We start to loose the pac for a couple weeks with some GOA trough look, but they increased the high lat blocking this run. Thinking that high lat blocking is in response to increase strat hits. But thats always tough to nail down this far out.

Yea, like they say in the stock market with stocks, gotta be PAYient

Yea, I think whats sort of to blame is Pacific pattern. Just hard to nail down specifics when you have very little data being incorporated into models over the ocean

Yea, to just sum it up in layman's terms. I think the cyclonic wave break in the north pacific is what starts the changes in the pna/epo domains. Due to the poor mjo forcing which is favorable for warmth and strengthening PV it will lead to a +AO which locks the cold up near the pole. Due to the epo and pna flipping to allow colder air to come south out of Canada, it will bring a cold shot late next weekend into following week but its transient, due to factors mentioned above. Can see on current MJO forecast, big time -OLR over maritime continent which then starts leaking towards the dateline which is getting closer to phase 7 which correlates to good cold starting to push in from the plains Once the MJO gets into more favorable phases for bringing colder air east which looks to be around Thanksgiving. Then add in some wave 1/2 hits to the SPV which can unleash some very cold air south too and maybe bring some bouts of high lat blocking too. This also looks to be after the 20th as well. That is when I would lean for cold air to lock in better. Just my 2 cents though.

Also, currently MJO forcing is in Maritime continent, which translates to warmth here. That swings towards phase 7 Thanksgiving week which is getting better aligned for a cold shot in plains that eventually comes east. Can see on EPS mean the convection in the maritime region starts feeding into the low south of the Aleutians further enhancing. The Aleutian low, is more of a nino look than nina. In nina you usually get a Aleutian ridge which correlates to a -pna

Just looking over everything, to me the better chance of sustained cold is after the 20th of November when more teles line up. Doesn't mean we won't get a cold shot, just like transient to me due to the changes in the pacific with a +pna/-epo tandem. So whats causing that sudden flip from a nina pacific look to nino? My non professional view seems to be whats brewing over Asia currently. I don't have mt torque maps, but looks like there is expansive high pressure spread out over China causing a positive East asian mt torque event? The HP over central and Northern China combined with the tropical belt underneath, as the MJO forcing is near the Maritime region. This pressure difference between convection and HP accelerates the pac jet and creates a jet ext. which is giving us the pacific dominated air across the country this week. We can then see strong low pressure coming off China negative tilting which causes massive ridging building out ahead of it. This is a cyclonic wave break. What this does is it ends the jet ext in the Pacific and buckled the flow and retracts the pacific jet. Which then allows our -epo/+pna to start to form Because other factors IMO aren't lined up yet, (mjo, stratosphere) this is a transient cold shot followed by a return to normal or abv. We need to wait for tropical forcing and or stratosphere alteration to bring more sustained cold in which I believe occurs week of Thanksgiving. Can see on Strat chart here on GEFS wave 1 hit starts with strong Siberian warming in about 8-9 days. We then may see a wave 2 formation as we get another area of warming near Scandinavia around the 20th. Around that point we could possibly watch out for some maybe -nao blocking to maybe show it's face. Can see in image above the SPV is getting squeezed by the wave 2 formation in the stratosphere. This may allow for a period of high lat blocking.

I’ll post some thoughts this evening but I’m bearish on any sustained cold prior to Thanksgiving week. Looks more like any cold is behind a front then warms to normal or a bit above after a few days

according to this, kbuf is running 1-2 degrees to warm compared to surrounding station analysis https://weather.gladstonefamily.net/site/Kbuf

Those old euro maps were dreadful but got the job done. Back then I used stormvista, while data is fast, their model output for precip amounts and what not is pretty terrible. So pixelated compared to the other sources these days I think the euro has had one to many upgrades which has hurt it a bit. It’s still the best in the world along with the epa statistically

I live in Southeast PA, just outside Philly. Still down here right now, waiting for settlement date for the house in Lowville, which should be soon. Not sure how long you have been around on here for, but back in the 2009-2012 I was known for the euro model information as I was one of the only few who had the maps and would do euro PBP in philly forum. Became a moderator on here, then had a disagreement on here with admin and formed my own philly forum which I still run currently.

I figured you averaged a bit more than Lowville. Basically prime moisture feed off Ontario and don't have to worry about being shadowed by the tuggies. Lowville probably does better with rention I would imagine with avg highs in the 20s for jan and feb

Doesn’t wolfie in Pulaski avg more than lowville?