tombo82685

Thanks man. I’m really looking forward to the first lake effect powder bomb too. Have heard so much about it. Waiting to see if it lives up to the hype

Up to 5.5 with fine needles falling hoping to get some help from Ontario to break 6. Will measure again before bed when I clear board again

5" so far, 30

I guess coming from southeast PA where you have the mentality of just enjoy whatever you get has seasoned me well lol

I doubt that

Man you guys are depressing. Like someone slicing a hole in your raft while floating In a pool

4.5 on the board clear. 30 still snowing moderately.

might be heaviest snow of the day here. 3.5 now

last week it looked like we would get a bit better circulation of the mjo into phase 8 and so on. Now it looks to get stuck in 7, but I think eventually it gets into the wHEM. My guess would be any sustained colder looks waits till near or after New years. Doesn't mean it can't snow up here. All you need is the right timing. The -pna is a PITA especially how deep it is and the location of it. I like to look at the strat too for some ideas of cold shots and I don't see anything noteworthy for getting cold in the east until new years timeframe when some wave 2 hits increase with better spv alignment. The alignment of the SPV looks to favor west. The North pacific jet continues to be in retraction phase and it's current placement is continuing to fuel the deep low north of japan, the wavebreaks from that continues to keep the aleutian ridge going, and that placement fuels the -pna. Once you see the deep low north of japan comes east, then that will signal the change in the pacific. Each feature feeds off each other, like a symbiotic relationship

the neg ao just pushes the cold from the poles south and in this case right into the west with that big -pna. You need to get that trough to come east of just not be as deep. The aleutian ridge, which is a textbook nina look, is a classic -pna signal which promotes se ridge. Up here we can work with that, but when you're talking a torugh that deep out west won't save us either.

Untill that -pna relaxes its going to be trouble. You can't have a good cold pattern on the east coast when you have a trough digging down to the equator out west. You can throw -nao at me all you want, that won't do squat with the magnitude of that trough. Pac>atl

pounding pretty good, probably under half mile vis right now, parked at 29.9

About 2.8, temp 30

From what I’m seeing constructed OLR maps push this into phase 7 this coming week. Gefs OLR look to stall it at border of phase 6/7 or just barely into 7

1.75 so far here in lowville, temp 28

definitely some of the strongest winds I've ever experienced. The constant roar just a loft was insane. Lost power from 7pm to 8am this morning. Thinking easily 55-65 mph gusts in this area

Good amount of dry air in low levels that has to overcome. Could be a case where radars bark is worse than it’s bite

are these maps based off COOP measurements?

Just some morning musings here So we all know the torch is coming for the next 7 days most likely, it's a foregone conclusion with the deep -pna forming out west. You just aren't going to stop the se ridge when you get a massive trough out west with nothing to keep the se ridge in check. But some changes are starting to brew in parts of the pacific, specifically the -epo region. Some of the ens like the eps are jacking that ridging up so much you're getting basically a ridge bridge across the pole into Scandanavia. What this will do is force the cold that was over the high latitudes south into the mid latitudes. Can see the ridge bridge and the strength of the epo on the eps here Those changes across the pole and into the epo will force some good cold south into the US. Problem is, we still haven't corrected the pac jet placements as to where it retracted and the wavebreaks that just reinforce the -epo on the western part of AK and into the Aleutians. This placement is just going to continue to dump the cold out west and maybe into the plains too. Can see below the pac jet from day 6 till the end of the run, just virtually no change at all. I would like to see that push further east so we can get a wave break closer to the west coast, or you could just retract the jet further west in the pacific and pull everything west, but the current spot just promotes -pna formation. The Mjo is going to push into the western hemisphere but that doesn't look to happen till probably near Christmas time. Can see the propagation of the -olr over the next 2 weeks. Not until the end of the 6-10 day period and 11-15 day period till we get phase 7 and pushing towards 8. The MJO argues for any sustained colder chancrqes would be till Christmas or after. I'm hoping once we get this convection into 7-8-1 that it will change that pacific jet structure to alter the epo configuration and maybe allow for some +pna. Clearly see the base state since late summer has been stuck in the maritimes, but this new wave is pushing dry air into the base state which is allowing for -olr to push into whem Here is the response for phase 6 and 7 in nina Phase 6 was basically the pattern for most of nov where we had a +pna but due to the trough in goa, didn't really have much cold air as it was pacific oriented the airmasses. Phase 7 maginifies the se ridge look but also shows if you can get some -nao action it could push the colder anoms south and force some gradient looks, epo also strongly negative which is showing up in ens. So we have the mjo that argues for nothing sustained cold wise for the next 10 days or so and the jet configuration out in the pacific also argues for -pna formation too. So lets look at the stratosphere, this is where it gets a little interesting. The strat is going to strengthen next 7 days or so as we come off the good wave 2 hit that brought this shot of colder air. Look at the period around dec 18, thats another strong wave 2 hit with big ridging in scandanavia region. The orientation of the pv for sending cold here isn't ideal, but its workable. I would watch the period between dec 16 to just before Christmas for models to maybe jump onto colder looks with some +pna help and increase in a winter storm chance. This is assuming the wave 2 hit is correct. We can see below, this is the strongest wave 2 hit so far this winter and I'm expecting a response from it. So to sum up, now up to Christmas mild risks are much higher, but the wild card is the strat if that can induce some cold. I can see some sort of gradient pattern setting up if we don't get the strat help. The -epo is going to want to dump cold into the US but with jet configuration getting -epo where it's at, it will promote a -pna. Hoping post Christmas with some mjo help and more strat hits we can get reshuffle the pacific a bit for some sustained colder weather. One plus in all this. Canada is cold, so we just need the pattern to bring the cold south. It's not like we are dealing with a blowtorched canada that will take weeks to recover from

another .5 overnight. Not a bad little event, almost 4" since monday night

1.9 24hr total here in lowville. Probably will tack on another couple tenths overnight. Seasonal total just over 9 11/15- .8 11/19 .3 11/22 .5 11/26 1 11/28-29 1.7 11/29-30 .8 12/4 -.8 12/6-7 1.3 12/8 1.9 Total: 9.1

some pitty flakes falling in Lowville after 1.3 overnight. So far it's been a winter of broom brushers and not snow shovelling

another .3 overnight, 1.3 total for the "event"

Looks like an inch here 3 miles east of lowville

Makes perfect sense, thanks