There was a storm in March 2018 or 17, it was suppose to crush sepa and ended up giving bgm like 3’. We had 4” of snow and like 4” of sleet. That lasted a week in mid March with that sun angle. Some serious liquid in it
Yea these lake effect snows with such low water content sublimate fast and melt fast. Thats why I like a good synoptic crush, get some moisture in the snow so it doesn't get wiped out in one day when it hits 40
Also have to remember, thats a 48hr map, cut about .5-.75 qpf off for right now according to the hrdps. It does flip over to snow later this morning in that area per hrdps. But I dunno, these warm layers are sneaky
I'm hoping, but have a feeling I may be a tad north, we will see. Feel like Lowville needs a bit of southerly component to the wind. Better bets for @wolfie09
I’m hoping but Nws Buffalo saying nbd for lowville as all the action is in Watertown. Models all seem to put it more of a due west bad into lowville. So I have no clue