tombo82685
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Everything posted by tombo82685
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synoptic ftmfw, none of this 20 miles band of silliness, spread the wealth -
That is a beast of an ULL in the south there. This is going to be close. tpv starting to get out and hgts starting to respond, looks like ULL trying to gain some latitude, northern energy little slower so far
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Will be interesting to see how this plays out on gfs. TPV north of maine is stronger, with crushing hgts, but ULL in southern plains is slower and the northern stream piece of energy is slower. So it all could just negate each other.
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You see the thin blue line just to the left of the red line, that is your wet bulb temp I believe when the column gets saturated
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what do you mean?
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I did that for @TugHillMatt
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Here is an easy break down. The numbers on the bottom are your temperatures at the surface then as you go vertical it's going vertical in atmosphere. So I highlighted three lines. Middle line is the freezing mark from the surface then upward throughout the atmosphere. Line to the left is -10c line to the right is +10c. Red line is your temperature throughout the whole profile, green is dew point.
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There is also another way to get this done possibly too. There is a piece of the tpv that swings throuhg friday that brings another shot of arctic air in. That tpv is what is acting as a block in itself as it flattens out the hgt lines along the east coast and well obviously a storm won't run into that. If that moves out faster and allows for good return flow along the coast then with how strong the ULL energy is modeled that def could gain serious latitude too
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This is what I mean, now the 0z icon went toward more phase of that energy so the storm came closer. This is the 18z icon. If the northern stream energy doesn't phase this is what you are left with. You have a ridge going sw to northeast, which causes the trough to remain positive tilted and this scoots under us
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I never said it wasn't a good setup, but the energy diving down is what causes the negative tilt and slings this north imo. If that energy diving down doesn't interact this scoots under as it would just be a big bowling ball low caught underneath the ridge to the north. For example look at 18z eps, the phase is missed and this goes well south of here. That phase is the deal breaker
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Yea I mean, I wouldn’t write it off being that we are 5/6 days away. But for us to get into action that phase needs to happen or it’s south
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Yea, the trough cutting from sw to northeast correlates to a huge positive tilted trough in east which argues for south and offshore. The northern stream energy is the wild card phase that would yank this north. The whole setup screams cutoff low that scoots under massive HP to the north
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Only chance that storm has for our area is if that northern stream phases in. If it misses that it’s a fish storm or i95
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Since mid dec have only had bare ground for like 4 days really, been snow covered every other time
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Being someone who works for NYS doing covid contact tracing and investigations, the latter probably played a role
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Anyways, been steady light to moderate snow since 4pm, closing in on 5 for 24hr total. About 8 otg
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You and I, I feel are the only ones who have not had a decent lake event.
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probably moved because he got sick of getting the shaft
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When I see wolfie posting patio deck pics with 10" of snow and I'm sitting here watching sun through high clouds with flurries.
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Damn
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Snowing fairly well right now. Over 3” mark. 12 for the temp
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Yea lake effect has some solid rates, but the 20 mile band that only gets some people while everyone else smokes exhaust just is annoying. Synoptic snows can have very good rates too. Heck the snowstorm that hit VA last Monday had 5"/hr snows in it.
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It verified much better than other models, just needed it to be right on, and well it wasnt
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The RGEM let me down like a girl on prom night. Sheesh
