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tombo82685

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Everything posted by tombo82685

  1. tombo82685
    That’s how much rain falls with temps below freezing, radial accrual would be much less than that.
  2. tombo82685
    Ahh ok, would of thought with north east flow when winds back around it would get some enhancement
  3. tombo82685
    That’s better lol. Sounding look all snow for roc
  4. tombo82685
    Soundings look supportive of snow. Color scheme looks like sleet
  5. tombo82685
    That looks like ip to me showing up on RGEM. You can see warm tongue in that area at h7
  6. tombo82685
    Yea I see that on the surface map. The one thing that gives me pause and makes me wonder if models are just placing the low under the deepest convection is the mid level tracks. The H85, h7 and h5 low don't redevelop to the east and get vertically stacked under that low pressure. They remain steady with the initial parent low.
  7. tombo82685
    Right now I would say rochester area has best shot at 15"+ as they get the northerly to northeasterly flow off Ontario to enhance snowfall. This is assuming no other adjustments are made in tracks
  8. tombo82685
    I would start paying more attention to mesos starting tomorrow night and def sunday. They are going to be the best to pick up those sneaky warm layers that globals will not. Don't under estimate the power of that LLJ screaming off the atlantic into the system. That will transport warm air inland aloft. Maybe not enough for some to avoid IP but enough to lower snow ratios. That LLJ hose is also what creates your big deform band too
  9. tombo82685
    I've also seen all that convection can also really enhance downstream ridging out ahead of a system and argue for a more west option too
  10. tombo82685
    No, but that jet is enough to bring warmer air well inland into the mid levels. It’s the nam though. Once mesos get inside 24hrs you take them seriously
  11. tombo82685
    you can also see why erie to roc is favored here too because they are in the ccb portion of the storm
  12. tombo82685
    20-21 was pretty decent down in sepa, finished abv normal
  13. tombo82685
    I hate using the NAM, it may be overcooked. But any time you have a 64+knot southeast LLJ ripping your way, you will not have good snow ratios and def watch for warm layers. Thats a straight firehose off the atl
  14. tombo82685
    Unless this goes over bgm, any mixing if it does in syr would be brief. It doesn't though change the fact there will be some warm tongues aloft that won't be well aligned with good dendritic snow growth. Now if we get a ukmet type track different story.
  15. tombo82685
    It's funny, you can tell where individuals live when a model comes out that doesn't hit their area
  16. tombo82685
    at h5, its the second best scoring model behind the euro. I mean where those h5 scores are taken from, who knows lol. It def can be erratic
  17. tombo82685
    I always get mixed up which one it was, both those Marches were solid
  18. tombo82685
    Thats a tughill to tombo special, has to be wrong
  19. tombo82685
    O jeeez didn't realize it came that far. The slp track didn't look that far east when comparing when it was down by dc
  20. tombo82685
    Lol what, I already stated your area is probably the jackpot zone with the h7 track
  21. tombo82685
    Makes sense, upper levels don't support good snow growth with warm tongues in the 850-700mb zone. But there will probably be some decent rates with the start of waa band
  22. tombo82685
    ukie slid east a tad from 12z. dc to nyc track
  23. tombo82685
    I don't care how much snow I get, but I'm strongly rooting for that tiny island of sleet over lysander.
  24. tombo82685
    I spoke about the march 2018 storm that brought bgm like 3'. They had wsw up for philly area for 1-2' that turned into 4-8" and 4" of sleet
  25. tombo82685
    One thing I have learned from these systems, never under estimate mid level warm push. It usually is stronger than modeled.
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