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tombo82685

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Everything posted by tombo82685

  1. tombo82685
    enviro canada site. black and white maps come out fast
  2. tombo82685
    per bufweather track of gem was mdt to just east of bgm, inline with rgem track. Qpf amounts will differ most likely. but track basically the same
  3. tombo82685
    probably will look exactly like rgem
  4. tombo82685
    O yea, I'm expecting IP here as well. But still also thinking syr and here manages 1-3 on frontside then 1-2 on back side then whatever sleet falls
  5. tombo82685
    fwiw, no real point in looking at ggem, usually this close range it just resembles the rgem
  6. tombo82685
    Snow brings all the weenies to the yard, and they're like, my snows better than yours
  7. tombo82685
    1" qpf is 3" sleet i believe. I still would sell on anything less than 5" for your area with sleet/snow totals. I mean if this keeps back nw, dif story, but as of now thats what I would say.
  8. tombo82685
    yea the storm track is basically the same, precip shifted a tad east from 18z
  9. tombo82685
    that and you can see deeper ULL, convection is enhancing se ridge out ahead of it
  10. tombo82685
    from what I'm seeing at h5, can't see the gfs going east this run, might tick nw again
  11. tombo82685
    my guess would be, kind of what you're saying, the dynamics are bringing the warmer aloft downward
  12. tombo82685
    Bingo, it’s missing warm layers. I would bet there is more sleet than shown here thus cutting down totals
  13. tombo82685
    Sell in those Ptype algorithms, there is going to be a lot of pinging
  14. tombo82685
    Looks like a nw jog on euro. Keeps intensifying se ridge in response to deep convection likely associated with system
  15. tombo82685
    You just became Tim's least favorite poster
  16. tombo82685
    I'd feel better for my locale if we could get a tick or two east, but im not sure thats going to happen. This system is loaded with convection. As I mentioned to @DeltaT13 that when you have all that convection it can help intensify downstream ridging and help the system go further west
  17. tombo82685
    my bar is set at 5" anything over that I'm good with
  18. tombo82685
    I like the numbers for buf to roc per nws, not sure yet about syr and my locale, I think sleet is going to be an issue. I think we ping and dry slot. The back side could match what happens in the front part of the system
  19. tombo82685
    Maybe he will come out with like 12 toes or something
  20. tombo82685
    We can make a hole for him, that’s can easily be achieved
  21. tombo82685
    Has tughill jumped into Onieda lake yet?
  22. tombo82685
    you can see the warm tongue with the llj on gem. See how the higher thicknesses push into syr and roc. Resembles the llj off Atlantic
  23. tombo82685
    Yes, but like I said, globals will not be able to see warm layers properly due to lower resolution unlike meso models. But I wouldn’t use mesos until tomorrow night
  24. tombo82685
    It’s still out of useful range of mesos, but look at the llj it’s a firehose right off the Atlantic due to the severe negative tilt the system takes
  25. tombo82685
    Dry slotted with h7 track
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