tombo82685

switch your sensitivity. Can see there was a band that went through the area

Things def will be pick up in terms of precip events once we get close to february as the whole pattern shifts back towards the more canonical nina look. Can see the shift in the pacific start in about 7 days or so. This should allow for a -pna development and more se ridging to form. How strong the pna gets will determine if we benefit or not. The SPV looks to go on roids heading into February and that can also argue against cold air coming south of it couples with troposphere. Main MJO forcing still looks conducive for cold through end of month then it becomes a bit iffier if we see propagation into western IO or not.

38 for the high here. I just can't get over how piss poor the lake effect season has been so far.

Not sure I agree with Nws buffalos 3-4” for here tomorrow, but I guess we will see

you don't use global models when dealing with mixing, they won't see tiny thin layers of warm intrusion. I said that like 5 times in the thread. Yes the nam got the warm air intrusion aloft right as it should with a meso, but in general was way way way way way to warm. Ask tughill how his 1-3" of snow is doing. I would use rgem over nam in a heartbeat.

other way around, you need more separation. Kicker wave is behind this, it's not dropping in and interacting. More separation the better.

It’s pounding here right now. Temp 21

up to 7" here in lowville. Did @TugHillMattsurpass the nam's 3" am I buying him a 4 pack of ipa's?

6-6.5” right now, temp down to 20. Waiting to see if the stuff to the west comes through to add on

Need 2” more for My 10+ call for you.

5.5 so far. Benchmark total passed

Can see some pockets of ip Inbetween cuse and bgm

east of town where those oranges are is sleet, clev proper is snow it looks

.3 so far, 19

Yup can see it on CC by Jamestown

you can see the the h7 fronto with the primary low that is dry slotting pitt. Then the beginnings of the LLj coming into DE.

h7 frontogenesis lining up in nw pa and sw ny

I like the HREF for meso models as well as rgem and hrdps. This was the 12z run, only runs 0z and 12z, but this is mean snowfall.

I’ll tell you what. If you don’t get more than 3” i will buy you a 4pack of your IPAs of choice and mail it to you

Yea they are replacing it in the next year or two. It’s a crap model but can be useful in some instances

You do know they are getting rid of the nam. That should tell you something there

You will get 6+ out of this regardless imo

Synoptic > LE

I like 10+ for you synoptic and LE boost with backside of low

I’ll go with 6-10 for cuse and lville with sleet thrown in.