tombo82685

Oo it will but shows you if it phases early it’s going west. If it’s late it’s progressive. It’s a tough setup

gfs is going to be an ugly run. Lead clipper wave weaker and further north, to much energy phasing out west

Don't under estimate that cold air behind that system, it's going to want to push that bndry further south. Only thing preventing that front from not being hung up is an earlier phase. Def can see a more progressive outcome occurring

I think you will snow in this

6z eps more progressive as less of phase so northern stream shoots out ahead

Its a fickle setup. You want a phase, but not to much where it flies nw, but if it misses it, then gets suppressed south

This is def a setup that can trend much colder and push everything south. If it misses that phases the tpv cold push with that big high can really bully themal bndry south

Yup, the northern stream energy not phasing as much with the ULL down in the baja compensated for that cause it stretched the trough more towards pos tilted

ggem looks pretty good to my eyes at hr 144, but thats way out in time

Can see form the gfs, while the clipper didn't track far south, the s/w entering in the west didn't phase as strong as 18z and 12z. The trough was more pos tilted. Then you have the cold press from the tpv coming east north of the lakes. Its a true overunning pipeline of moisture

There is the SPV which is the stratospheric PV which what you watch for wave 1 or 2 hits and SSW. Then you have the tropsopheric PV.

Tropospheric pv, that is whats in central canada.

For mid to late next week. 2 things to watch. 1) that lead clipper wave that scoots to the north. You want as far south as it can go. That is what pulls the cold air down and pushes the baroclinic zone further east. 2) Watch how the northern stream energy interacts with the closed low ejecting out of the baja. Faster they phase, its wagons north. You want to delay that phasing as long as possible. Ideally you want a positive tilted trough that sets up a nice thermoclinic boundary for storms to track along. The push of cold air from clipper prior sets all that up. some other things to watch is the orientation of the pacific ridge, further west that is argues for more energy to want to phase into the southwest. Further east, increase psoitive tilted trough and or later phase which would argue for further east track Also keep an eye on tpv orientation up in canada

I got my lake effect surprise finally. Models showed the tug hill sucker hole got over 2” here.

1.2 last night, about 41 on the season, yawn

on the meteocentre site it goes out to hr 84 at 18z. But thats it. Looks close to 18z gfs with leaving energy behind

he must of went to happy hour early with the feb 2015 analog

that time period could be ugly as the ridge out west in the wake of late week storm rolls over then area of low pressure follows behind. Euro is quite a bit different. Long way to go with that one

18z ggem went towards the gfs with leaving that energy behind in sw

WHAT? looks no where near a feb 2015 pattern with that type of cold here from what I'm seeing. Does look gradient like but not the cold that february had. First big system to watch would be next thurs-sat period. That could have some ptype issues

18z ggem that goes out to 84 hrs on meteocentre is doing same thing gfs is doing, it's burying the energy in the sw. Would most likely be an east shift if that went further out

guys, the 18z ggem on that site does not go out past 48hrs. You're looking at 12z data once past 48hrs

well yea, that period I outlined above around next friday that could get dicey. lets see after

show me the ensembles, not a day 14 op run that will be completely different next run

Cuse is running about same departure as I am. I’m at 39.2 on season. By feb 1 should be at 76”. What makes it worse for cuse, I don’t think they even have much snow otg? We atleast have a 8-9” snow pack here