tombo82685
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Everything posted by tombo82685
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get your shovel ready -
teee heee
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On the way to a more progressive look
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hey @TugHillMatt ACY has just as much snow as syracuse now
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Think you’re seeing what I’m saying. Instead of front stalled and same areas getting hit, it’s more progressive spreading wealth out
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Yea that’s a torch. But what I’m saying is when Dave was posting that they weren’t in agreement with a torch yet
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That’s the gefs day 12 for this coming Thursday that’s barely abv normal https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2022012212&fh=318
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Any h5 map shows it. This is h5 anom map. Can see the southern s/w then tpv up in central Canada. Can see the piece of energy rotating around tpv that is what gfs phases in and what would promote a stronger cutter and se ridge. Euro keeps pieces disconnected
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Yea I remember rochesterdave posting all those 11 day gfs maps and I said ens look way different
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I just think models will start catching up on that cold press. That’s a big man high pushing on that front. Unless piece of the tpv really phases in I’m not buying the stationary front with waves riding up it. I think it’s the frontal precip then thermal bndry goes south then final wave rides that bndry Not sure how far south that second wave goes. But would not shock me if it goes to i95 or cuse to bgm hit.
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Just a guess but I would think that frontal precip trends south. That brings main precip to kbuf to kart then 2nd wave goes further south
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You get 6” of snow???? Bun him. If that were lake effect we would have 20 Rochester airport photos showing the snow from you
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Yup. That’s how these anafrontal waves work. Thin ribbon of success
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Yea gfs puts all its money in phasing the two. Not sure I buy that. Those tpv pieces of energy are tough to phase due to how fast they move. Timing has to be just right. I’m betting more progressive imo right now
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You can see it. The tpv energy didn’t dive into the south. It stayed north elongating the trough for more positive tilt. Pushes thermal bndry further south.
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Cuse to bgm ftw this run?
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It’s more progressive. That first part is just frontal precip. Main wave is south
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Looks like tpv is out running it, so probably door number 1
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Have to see if piece of tpv splits off and phases down in s/w in the sw. If it doesn’t would be positive tilted trough. If it does look for the ice or rain threat
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Euro going to be amped
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I dunno, I’ve seen these events numerous times go progressive with all that cold bottled up. That’s some serious HP pushing
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Progressive, not much phasing in sw, cold push out runs it
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Sell on all those ice maps vs reality
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Cut that in half for actual ice maybe 2/3rds. But bad enough
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Ggem is more progressive. Doesn’t full on phase in southwest. Northern stream out runs it a bit setting up positive tilted trough.
