tombo82685

First part was amped more, 2nd further south

gfs should be a bit further nw this run. Flow is more aligned sw to northeast.

odd? thats basically the definition of an anafront or overunning

or because they both screw his backyard, gotta look at the poster as well and their location

except its counting sleet as snow

Yet everyone still has to get all worked up over it with all of its flaws

That looks close to cuse to me

That looks pretty close to cuse to me if you want to nit pick over 5-10 miles sure then https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

actually a bit warmer, gets mix line to cuse

ggem looks damn good, pretty much held from what I can see form 12z

I'd use 10-1 over kuchera on this event. Mid levels are pretty warm. Omega within the DGZ is pretty meh

weaker low as we had less phasing. Probably a good 50 mile shift southeast looks like

gfs should be southeast from what I'm seeing right now. less energy going into south, bit more tpv press, pna ridge pushing more towards west coast. Should promote more pos tilted trough allowing bit more could to push east

just let em go...

Looking at the eps, reason they are getting bit more amped is they are digging the southern s/w more in the south. Culprit could be pna ridge previously was getting sawed off up near AK due to lower hgts. This lead to a broad ridge which causes more positive tilted trough allowing the cold to run east and less phasing. Last couple runs are losing that which is leading to a more amplified pna ridge allowing for the s/w to dig more. This really flexes the se ridge which in turn shoves the cold air advancement from the clipper more northeast instead of east. Also, the tpv has trended a bit further north as well which has allowed the se ridge to gain more traction but I think that is merely related to the s/w in the south digging more. Going into these 0z runs, watch the pna, how much energy phases out west, and how strong the southern stream s/w is in the south. It's a catch 22 here, you want a potent storm to bring good qpf, but that also may enhance the se ridge and push the thermal bndry over the region.

just from looking at stuff, no real point of using Kuchera maps, this looks closer to 10-1 then kuchera weenie ratios, atleast off 18z gfs

Looks like they are tightening up. The nw fringe didn’t move much. Just losing all those more progressive run makes it seem that way

it depends, if it phases this goes nw, nothing to stop it. But of it doesn’t phase as much it will go more progressive and this will push southeast. Key is that phase in the southeast. Would still lean a bit more progressive. Those tpv pieces are tough to phase.

Gefs are phasing in more energy compared to other guidance which is more pos tilted. It’s an outlier right now but can show you where this can go if more energy phases.

Everyone gets fed with these two systems imo. Bgm better chance with last one

well if it was a troll then nvm lol. I plead the 5th in that I've only been posting here since NOV. I don't know the personalities well enough yet

maybe it's the sepa in me, but I'd sign up for 4-8 all day long over what it had 7 days ago which was a torch and rain

ggem looks good, but further south with 2nd wave

no, I think this is a 4-8 event, final wave is south