tombo82685

Timmy gone wild this morning 

4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Ha I'm not sure. I've never really paid much attention to the Sref since everyone seems to shit on them for their apparent lack of accuracy and being affiliated with the NAM? (I forget what the connection was to the NAM, or maybe there isnt one and Im just remembering wrong).

wise man, srefs are usually to amped up with everything due to the ARW family. I believe nam is involved in them but like yourself don't look at them

7 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

Into the mountains of NH and VT? 

In Sne region

Just now, rochesterdave said:

UKIE must develop the low when it hits the coast and throws some love back? 

Ukmet counts sleet as snow. Look at Sne snow. Has that all as snow yet temps above freezing at 850

lol gfs, finally got off its blast the cold to the coast like an army campaign 

1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said:

Are you talking about all that enhanced sleet in PA?

nope, the 15dbz echo over monroe co

Just now, TugHillMatt said:

Oops, wait...I forgot. @tombo82685 Bestest, most correctest model out there, no doubt.

still generally looks like 6-12" event from what I'm seeing 

15 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

rgem still jacked up

While jacked up, its bit further southeast compared to 18z

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Must not have loaded yet on pivitol

comes out first on gem collaboration, the color maps.

1 minute ago, tim123 said:

Has 00z run yet?

yes

rgem still jacked up

Just hit freezing for the first time in a while 

ggem looks drunk right now with its depiction. Always gotta respect big man highs spreading east

euro going to press that high a bit more here this run. Would think this ends up more progressive than 6z unless the caboose low really amps up 

1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Not much change in Gefs

Drier 

2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

NWS is pretty bullish IMO regarding the 12-18” for much of WNY. 

If ggem suite is correct then yes. But if these flatter models are correct looks more 6-12 to me 

20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

The morning maps look pretty solid imo . 

22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Seems like things may be starting later than planned.

I think you guys are trolling tombo by posting kuchera after kuchera... lol

Like I stated last night, whichever model shows your backyard getting the most you go with. Toss everything else.

5 rules to the handbook among others

1: coldest and snowiest model is always correct regardless of its origin. I.E. KMA

2: always use the snow method that brings the most snow to your backyard. Whether it be kuchera, 10-1  or tidbit sleet being counted as snow  

3. If the 850 line is below your house and the model shows rain, it’s wrong, storms create their own cold air. 
4: storms can’t go through a HP. HP are walls. 

5. 84hr nam maps are correct. Models correct to the nam, nam doesn’t correct to them. 

Ukmet looks a bit nw of 0z from what I can tell from the 12hr maps 

14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

GFS continues to subtly adjust north on the second wave. The snowfall maps didn’t change but I’m happy to see the suppression scenario stop

They didn’t change because there is less qpf but agreed, gfs came in stronger bit more amped with that 2nd wave 

16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

There's always one...and if it ends up right, Yes, I will melt like a Karen who didn't get enough creamer in her caramel latte frap macchiato.

3 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

For me it depends on which shows more snow. I have like 5 of them lined up on every model run. 
 

Present value of happiness tombo. 

Lol I was just curious, cause they are terrible as they count sleet as snow 

Just curious, why do you guys use tidbit snow maps when they are severely flawed?

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Like I’ve been saying. At least 30:1 due to the cold. We’re in complete agreement as usual. 
Tom is like the forum scold. But he’s smart, so I guess he stays. 

Why not go 50-1, then lake effect on backside could do 75-1