donsutherland1

On JAXA, the latest figure was almost 500,000 sq. km. below the previous daily record low extent.

Some temporary declines in January have occurred in the past. Statistically, it is almost improbable that we have already reached the peak Arctic sea ice extent figure (>4.5 sigma event). During the 2003-16 period, the earliest peak was February 15 (2015). The latest was March 31 (2003 and 2010). The mean and median dates were March 10.

2016 was a remarkable year as far as Arctic sea ice extent was concerned. A summary of data is below:

And this is the second such case since November.

That's extraordinary warmth.

What has been going on in the Arctic is nothing short of historic, at least as far as sea ice extent record keeping is concerned. The October 1-December 9 mean figure for sea ice extent is 7,483,994 square kilometers. The previous record from 2012 was 7,760,443 square kilometers. Moreover, if one took the daily record low minimum figures for the same period of time prior to 2016, the mean figure would be 7,665,564 square kilometers. So far, 2016 has seen daily record low figures established on 180 days. It is now all but certain that 2016 will have established record low figures on at least half the days.

Barring a dramatic and significant increase, 2016 is moving closer to having seen daily record minimum extent figures on one out of every two days.

The issue is that in the absence of concrete data, it's difficult to draw firm conclusions with any degree of confidence.

Thanks. That's what I've read. So, as you noted, there doesn't appear to be anything unusual going on right now.

Do you have a source of data that indicates the current coronal holes are largely unprecedented?

Coronal holes have been observed since the 1950s (https://www.cfa.harvard.edu/~scranmer/Preprints/eaaa_holes.pdf). If coronal holes were largely responsible for the current low ice conditions in the Arctic and Antarctic regions, one should have seen similar issues across time. That there is a linear decline in Arctic sea ice underway suggests that something other than coronal holes is responsible, given that they've been occurring regularly.

Ice extent data from 2003-16 (except for Fall 2016 and Annual 2016):

Fantastic comparative information.

Arctic sea ice extent fell 18,045 square kilometers on November 19. That brings the 3-day decline to 162,147 square kilometers. The daily figure of 8,302,669 square kilometers is 1,102,391 square kilometers below the previous daily record low figure of 9,405,060 square kilometers, which was set in 2012.

There has been amazing warmth in the Arctic region this fall.

FWIW, the November 18 Arctic sea ice extent figure would be equivalent to a November 18 high temperature of about 87° in NYC on a standardized basis. The existing record for the date is 73°, which was set in 1921 and tied in 1928.

Yes. It was a huge loss.

On November 18, 2016 Arctic Sea Ice Extent (JAXA) was 8,320,714 square kilometers. That was a decline of 97,385 square kilometers from the previous day. It is also 948,831 square kilometers below the previous record minimum for the date of 9,269,545 square kilometers, which was set in 2012. The biggest 1-day declines in the October 1-December 31 timeframe: 1. 97,385 sq. km., 11/18/2016 (exceeded the biggest 2-day decline for this timeframe). 2. 54,064 sq. km., 12/25/2011 3. 53,292 sq. km. 12/1/2007 4. 51,274 sq. km. 12/17/2011 5. 48,440 sq. km. 10/25/2009 The November 17, 2016 decline of 46,717 square kilometers ranked 6th biggest for this timeframe. The 11/17-18/2016 2-day decline of 144,102 square kilometers exceeded the previous record of 81,804 square kilometers, which was established on 12/1-2/2007.

It was working this morning. Perhaps there's a temporary issue that is sending visitors to the site's twitter stream.

You can find the data here: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

It does. To date, 2016 has set daily minimum records on 46% of days this year.

The 9/6 Arctic sea ice extent figure on JAXA was 4,022,615 square kilometers. That was a decrease of 22,855 square kilometers from 9/5. It would represent the 2nd lowest minimum figure on record.

9/5 JAXA figure: 4,045,470 square kilometers, down 10,836 kilometers. This would be the second lowest minimum figure on record.

9/4 JAXA figure: 4,056,306 square kilometers. This was a slight increase from 9/3, but it is not likely the minimum for this year.

Arctic sea ice extent falls to 2nd lowest on record... The 9/3 figure on JAXA was 4,054,179 square kilometers. That would ranks as the 2nd lowest minimum figure on record. Only 2007 (4,065,739 square kilometers) was lower. The 5-year average decline in sea ice extent from 9/3 would produce a minimum figure of 3,852,090 square kilometers. The minimum decline (2002-15) would result in a figure of 3,950,344 square kilometers. The maximum decline (2002-15) would result in a minimum figure of 3,647,151 square kilometers. A minimum extent under 4,000,000 square kilometers appears very likely (> 90%) and a figure just under 3,900,000 square kilometers appears possible.