donsutherland1

4.42" at PHL overnight.

Tomorrow, a cold front will press eastward, The potential exists for a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to impact the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Parts of the region will likely see heavier rain than had occurred in today's more limited rounds of showers and thundershowers. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -11.88 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.864. In coming days, the ensembles suggest that blocking could redevelop. However, that round of blocking may not reach the previous round in terms of magnitude. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 18, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.043 (RMM). The June 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.506. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some the extended guidance is suggesting just such an outcome. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 53%.

That would be very impressive. Since 1912, Allentown has had only 3 years when 60" or more precipitation was recorded: 1952: 67.69" 2011: 71.72" 2018: 66.96" Historically (1912-2018), Allentown has averaged 44.40" precipitation. However, the 2000-2018 period has averaged 48.38" and the 2010-2018 period has averaged 49.83".

At 8 pm, an area of rain was moving away from the greater New York City area. Additional areas of showers and thunderstorms stretched from northeast of Macon to Annapolis. Overnight, things should quiet down, but additional showers and thundershowers are likely across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas tomorrow. Through 8 pm, year-to-date precipitation at Allentown stood at 29.53", which surpassed the 28.76" that fell in 1941 (driest year on record). At Newark, year-to-date precipitation was 26.34", which surpassed the 26.09" that fell in 1965 (driest year on record). At New York City, year-to-date precipitation was 25.35". Select probabilities for annual precipitation amounts included: 45" or more: 86%; 50" or more: 65%; 55" or more: 39%. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -7.41 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.492. In coming days, the ensembles suggest that blocking could redevelop. However, that round of blocking may not reach the previous round in terms of magnitude. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 17, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.505 (RMM). The June 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.850. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City has increased to 53%.

Over the past two hours, Allentown has picked up 1.00" rain. That brings Allentown's year-to-date precipitation to 28.85". As a result, 1941 remains Allentown's driest year on record. Then, 28.76" that fell during the entire year.

Today, readings remained in the 70s across the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. However, temperatures reached the 90s in such cities as Baltimore, Richmond, and Washington, DC. A disturbance heading eastward will bring an increased risk of showers and thunderstorms to the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions tonight through Wednesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -7.59 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was unavailable. The AO could go positive in coming days. However, that period could be short-lived as renewed blocking develops. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 16, the MJO moved into Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.845 (RMM). The June 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.425. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 46%.

Excessive rainfall totals were recorded over the past 24 hours in the Ohio Valley. Locations near Cincinnati picked up more than 5" rain. Over the next several days, parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be in line for above to possibly much above normal rainfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -3.66 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.376. The AO could go positive in coming days. However, that period could be short-lived as renewed blocking develops. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 15, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.423 (RMM). The June 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.115. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 46%.

Yesterday saw a high temperature of 81° in New York City. Overall, the June 1-15 temperature averaged 68.6°, which was 0.7° below normal. The probability that June will finish somewhat warmer than normal has diminished, but remains plausible. A wetter than normal June remains well on course. Some photos from Pike County, Pennsylvania yesterday where rainfall totals have been much above normal recently. The photos were taken in the Dingmans Falls area (Dingmans Falls is the larger waterfall and Silver Thread Falls is the smaller one). Temperatures were in the upper 70s there and rain showers passed near the area during the evening.

Under bright sunshine and scattered clouds, temperatures rebounded into the 70s today. Readings will likely reach or exceed 80° across much of the Middle Atlantic region and into southern New England tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -0.28 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.841. The ongoing blocking will likely continue through mid-month and then could slowly fade. At the same time, blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 13, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.917 (RMM). The June 12-adjusted amplitude was 0.716. Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. Through June 14, the mean temperature in NYC is 68.4°. Based on the latest guidance, the implied mean temperature for the first half of June is about 68.6° (0.7° below normal). The second half of June, particularly after June 20th could feature warmer conditions relative to normal than what is likely through mid-month. However, exceptional warmth currently appears unlikely. This period could feature above to possibly much above normal precipitation in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. There are some hints on the guidance that the end of June and start of July could feature drier conditions. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City remains near 55%.

Year-to-date precipitation figures and anomalies through 8:38 pm included: Allentown: 27.69" (+9.01") Baltimore: 19.58" (+0.98") Boston: 21.33" (+1.33") Bridgeport: 22.75" (+3.05") Harrisburg: 24.01" (+6.92") Islip: 23.13" (+1.55") New York City: 24.37" (+2.50") Newark: 24.96" (+4.22") Philadelphia: 22.17" (+3.88") Providence: 26.08" (+4.18") Scranton: 20.73" (+5.12") Washington, DC: 19.79" (+2.20") New York City picked up 0.44" rain. Yesterday's 12z run of the FV3 forecast only 0.10". The implied probability of New York City's reaching 50" or more annual precipitation is 64%.

Earlier today, the temperature fell to 55° in New York City. That was the coolest reading since May 25 when the temperature also fell to 55°. It was also the coolest temperature June 10 or later since June 14, 2013 when the temperature fell to 53°. Milder conditions are likely across the Middle Atlantic region for the remainder of the week and through the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was +5.62 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.077. The ongoing blocking will likely continue through mid-month and then could slowly fade. At the same time, blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. On June 12, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.715 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the June 11-adjusted figure of 0.679. Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. Based on the latest guidance, the implied mean temperature for the first half of June is about 68.7° (0.6° below normal). The second half of June, particularly after June 20th could feature warmer conditions relative to normal than what is likely through mid-month. However, exceptional warmth currently appears unlikely. Nevertheless, there remains a distinct possibility that the 90° isotherm will reach New York City at some point before June ends. In addition, this period could feature above to possibly much above normal precipitation in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 55%.

As of 10 am, NYC (Central Park) had received 0.25" rain. Already, that's well above the yesterday's 12z FV3, which was a low outlier. Yesterday, following the 12z runs, I had noted that with the implementation of the FV3, forecast precipitation for today into tomorrow had diverged both from the prior GFS runs and the NAM runs (through 12z), with the FV3 showing only 0.10" rain. It appears that this event could be the FV3's second large miss on qpf within 24 hours of an event for NYC for the second time this week.

Another system could bring another 0.50" to 1.50" precipitation to parts of the region tomorrow into Friday. The heaviest rain appears likely to fall in an area running from near Washington, DC northeastward across southeastern Pennsylvania into adjacent New Jersey. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was +9.14 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.179. The ongoing blocking will likely continue through mid-month and then could slowly fade. At the same time, blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. On June 11, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.679 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the June 10-adjusted figure of 0.816. Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. Based on the latest guidance, the implied mean temperature for the first half of June is about 68.7° (0.6° below normal). The second half of June, particularly after June 20th could feature warmer conditions relative to normal than what is likely through mid-month. However, exceptional warmth currently appears unlikely. Nevertheless, there remains a distinct possibility that the 90° isotherm will reach New York City at some point before June ends. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City remains near 60%.

At 12z the FV3 replaced the GFS. As for as NYC is concerned, the guidance is now colder throughout the MEX MOS vs. the 0z run (prior version). A similar cooling was visible on the MEX MOS forecast for San Francisco. Forecast precipitation for Thursday-Friday has diverged both from the prior GFS runs and the NAM runs (through 12z), with the FV3 showing only 0.10" rain. The 12z NAM shows approximately 0.70". The 12z GGEM shows approximately 0.90". With the last rainstorm, the consensus was 0.50"-1.50" and 1.07" fell. The FV3 showed much higher amounts. As with the last storm, I suspect NYC will pick up 0.50"-1.50" rain. If so, the FV3 will record another big "miss" within a less than one-week period.

In the wake of the recent rainstorm, year-to-date precipitation totals and anomalies for select cities are as follows: Allentown: 27.34" (+8.94"); Binghamton: 18.28" (+1.98"); Boston: 20.70" (+0.98"); Bridgeport: 22.41" (+2.97"); Harrisburg: 23.00" (+6.17"); Islip: 22.68" (+1.42"); New York City: 23.93" (+2.38"); Newark: 24.45" (+3.98"); Philadelphia: 20.72" (+2.65"); Portland: 23.55" (+2.82"); Providence: 25.29" (3.66"); and, Scranton: 20.19" (+4.86"). Another system could bring another 0.50" to 1.50" precipitation to parts of the region Thursday into Friday. Unlike with the recent system, there is a increased prospect that some locations could pick up 2.00" or more of precipitation. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was +19.61 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.090. The ongoing blocking will likely continue through mid-month and then could slowly fade. At the same time, blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. On June 10, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.817 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat higher than the June 9-adjusted figure of 0.797. Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. Based on the latest guidance, the implied mean temperature for the first half of June is about 69.1° (0.2° below normal). The second half of June, particularly after June 20th could feature warmer conditions relative to normal than what is likely through mid-month. However, exceptional warmth currently appears unlikely. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently approximately 60%. Finally, with today's 98° maximum temperature, San Francisco smashed the old daily record of 88°, which was set in 1985. Yesterday, San Francisco had a 100° high. Until now, San Francisco had never had a 100° temperature prior to September 1. The June 1-11 period has had a mean temperature of 67.3°. The previous warmest first 11 days of the month occurred in 1960 with a mean temperature of 65.5°. 　

I know. That’s why I noted the excessive QPF. Its 500 mb scores are modestly better than those for the GFS. It still seems to have large misses on specific events. I will be interested to see how it fares with tropical cyclones and later potential winter storms.

With the exception of southern and eastern sections of the northern Middle Atlantic region, the general idea of 0.50"-1.50" rainfall worked out quite well. The excessive amounts shown on several runs of the FV3 (which likely indicates that the model is not ready for operational use) did not pan out. Rainfall amounts through 8 am included: Allentown: 0.89" Atlantic City: 0.97" Boston: 0.49" (rain was still falling) Bridgeport: 0.38" Islip: 0.41" New York City: 1.07" Newark: 0.97" Philadelphia: 0.38" Providence: 1.16" (rain was still falling) White Plains: 0.63" New York City's total precipitation at Central Park is now 23.93". Based on the 1971-2018 period, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will pick up 50.00" or more precipitation. The lowest precipitation from June 12-December 31 was 11.33", which occurred in 1965. The highest was 47.14", which fell in 2011. Last year, 42.29" precipitation fell during that period.

As of 7 pm, New York City had picked up 0.62" rain bringing its yearly total to 23.48". That is 2.09" above normal. Additional rainfall is likely tonight into the first part of tomorrow. Overall, the region remains in line for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with some locally higher amounts. At present, the implied probability of New York City's seeing 50" or more precipitation is 62% (1971-2018 period). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was +8.15 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.864. The AO has averaged -0.739 through the first 10 days of June. The ongoing blocking will likely continue through mid-month and then could slowly fade. At the same time, blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. On June 9, the MJO moved into Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.801 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the June 8-adjusted figure of 1.092. Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. Based on the latest guidance, the implied mean temperature for the first half of June is about 69.6°. The second half of June, particularly after June 20th could feature warmer conditions relative to normal than what is likely through mid-month. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently approximately 54%.

A system will move through the region tomorrow into Tuesday morning. A general 0.50" to 1.50" rain appears likely across the northern Middle Atlantic region into southern New England. The potential for some higher amounts is possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.17°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.80°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least mid-June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -0.35 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.874. The blocking will likely continue through mid-month and then could slowly fade. At the same time, blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. On June 8, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.094 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the June 7-adjusted figure of 1.301. Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. Based on the latest guidance, the implied mean temperature for the first half of June is about 69.3°. The second half of June, particularly after June 20th could feature warmer conditions relative to normal than what is likely through mid-month. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently approximately 50%.

Today featured abundant sunshine with some high clouds. As a result, the temperature rose to 81° in New York City. The weather was outstanding for the opening of the New York Botanical Garden’s “Brazilian Modern: The Living Art of Roberto Burle Marx” summer show. The first three photos are from the Modernist Garden, which is the centerpiece of the show. The fourth is from the Water Garden.

The coolest summer was 1903 with a mean temperature of 69.3°. The warmest summer was 2010 with a mean temperature of 77.8°. The current normal temperature is 74.4°.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.18°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through mid-June in Region 3.4. However, some fluctuation to warm neutral conditions is possible for at least some time. Beyond mid-June, the probability of generally warm neutral conditions could increase. The recent big increase in the ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomaly may suggest a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June. Recent MJO data have reinforced that idea. The SOI was -2.46 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.402. On June 1, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 2.821 (RMM). The amplitude was somewhat lower than the May 31-adjusted figure of 2.900. Since 1974, 7 years saw the MJO in Phases 1 or 2 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the May 27-June 5 period. The mean temperature for those cases during the June 1-15 period in New York City was 68.2°, which was about a degree below the mean temperature for the entire period. Thus, the MJO signal may reinforce the idea of a somewhat cooler than normal to near normal first half of June indicated from the recent warming of ENSO Region 1+2. Both the ENSO data and MJO data suggest that the 12z ECMWF, with a cooler overall outlook over the next 10 days, is more likely to verify than the 12z and 18z GFS, which shows some much above normal temperatures during that period. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently approximately 53%. Meanwhile, the Southeast from South Carolina southward is off to a warmer than normal start consistent with what has typically followed an exceptionally warm May.

The coldest year in New York City was 1888 with a mean temperature of 49.3°. The warmest was 2012 with a mean temperature of 57.4°. The current normal is 55.0°.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.6 -0.3 0.7 -0.2

it's sad that the scientific integrity of data is subordinate to non-scientific factors.