donsutherland1

At 5 pm AKD, Anchorage had a temperature of 89°. That smashed the old all-time record high temperature of 85°, which was set on June 14, 1969.

Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose to 90° in New York City's Central Park for the second time this year. Meanwhile, on the heels of its warmest June on record, the first four days of July are the warmest four-day period on record in Anchorage. As of 4 pm AKD, Anchorage has had a high temperature of 85°. That ties Anchorage's all-time record high temperature, which was set back on June 14, 1969. Anchorage currently has a mean temperature of 70.5° for the July 1-4 period. The old record was 68.4°, which was set during June 15-18, 2015. The 7-day average is 68.1°, which also sets a new record. Prior to 2019, the record was 66.4°, which was set during the July 19-25, 2013 period. The first week of July appears likely to have a 70° or above mean temperature. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around June 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.70°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions may now be evolving. The SOI was -2.46 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.897. Blocking will likely persist through at least the first week of July and continue beyond it. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On July 3, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.108 (RMM). The July 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.632. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. Based on the current guidance, the July 1-10 period is likely to have a mean temperature near 78.5° in New York City. That would be the 27th warmest first 10 days of July since daily records were first kept back in 1869. The second half of July should not be as warm relative to normal, though much warmer conditions could redevelop near the end of the month. Overall, July looks to be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently 56%.

More high temperature records were shattered in Europe earlier today. Select high temperatures included: Breman, Germany: 95° (tied June record); Dijon, France: 99° (June record); Frankfurt: 102° (tied all-time record); Innsbruck: 99° (tied all-time record); Paderborn, Germany: 95° (June record); Pamplona, Spain: 104° (tied June record); Strasbourg, France: 102° (tied June record); and, Wiesbaden, Germany: 102° (All-time record). In the region, New York City finished June with a monthly mean temperature of 71.6°. That was 0.2° above normal. This afternoon, severe thunderstorms tracked southeastward from Connecticut across Long Island producing hail and damaging winds. Trees were toppled in parts of Long Island. More tranquil weather now lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions could develop later this month and then continue into at least the first half of July. The SOI was -9.49 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.547. Blocking will likely persist through at least the first week of July and likely beyond it. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). The final figure for this timeframe was 74.7°. As suggested by the guidance and pattern, the closing week of June has experienced some of the warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 29, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.981 (RMM). The June 28-adjusted amplitude was 1.034. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. Based on the current guidance, the July 1-10 period is likely to have a mean temperature near 78.0°. That would be the 30th warmest first 10 days of July since records were kept back in 1869. Overall, July looks to be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

Some views of a thunderstorm that headed southeastward across southwestern Connecticut to Long Island:

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.2 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.3 -0.4 0.3 1.5

The historic heat wave that has been affecting western Europe centered on France and Spain abated somewhat today. Nevertheless, daily and, in some cases, monthly records were still matched or broken. Select high temperatures included: Aurillac, France: 99° (Tied June record); La Heve, France: 97° (Tied all-time record); Le Mans, France: 102° (June record); Logrono, Spain: 108° (June record); Pamplona, Spain: 104° (June record); Pirineos, Spain: 104° (June record); Poitiers, France: 100° (Tied June record); Torrejon, Spain: 106° (June record); Toulouse, France: 104° (Tied June record); Tours, France: 102° (June record); and, Zaragoza, Spain: 109° (June record). Ahead of the cold front that brought strong and severe thunderstorms to parts of the Middle Atlantic region from Staten Island southward, high temperatures included: Baltimore: 97°; New York City: 91°; Newark: 93°; Philadelphia: 94°; Richmond: 96°; Washington, DC: 96°; and, Wilmington, DE: 93°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions could develop later this month and then continue into at least the first half of July. The SOI was -25.87 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.946. Blocking will likely persist through at least the first week of July and likely beyond it. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°. As suggested by the guidance and pattern, the closing week of June has experienced some of the warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 28, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.036 (RMM). The June 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.164. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter). The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 76%. The most likely monthly mean temperature figure is 71.6° (71.5° to 71.7°). New York City also remains on track for 50" or more precipitation this year. With today's 0.08" figure, there is an implied 70% probability of such an outcome this year. Overall, July looks to be warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

Three photos of from the severe thunderstorms that passed to the south.

Today, Central Park reached 90° for the first time this summer. The high temperature so far is 91°.

Seems pretty likely. It will be interesting to see how things evolve this afternoon.

Did you mean 1991-2010 20 year average or 1981-2010 30 year average. I suspect it’s the latter.

The historic June heat wave peaked today with France experiencing its most extreme heat on record. Two locations tied the previous national record high temperature of 111° and two surpassed it. High temperatures included: Bolzano, Italy: 104° (Tied June/all-time record); Gallargue-le-Montueux, France: 115° (all-time national record); Istres, France: 111° (all-time record); Le Luc, France: 106° (June record); Madrid: 106° (June record); Marseille, France: 102° (June record); Milan: 97° (Tied June record set yesterday); Montpelier, France: 109° (all-time record); Nimes, France: 111° (all-time record); Orange, France: 106° (June record); Perpignan, France: 108° (all-time record); Torrejon, Spain: 106° (June record); Villevielle, France: 113°; and, Zaragoza, Spain: 108° (June record) The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions could develop later this month and then continue into at least the first half of July. The SOI was -27.20 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.294. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.5°. As suggested by the guidance and pattern, the closing week of June has experienced some of the warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 27, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.164 (RMM). The June 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.999. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter). The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 63%.

Under sunny skies, the temperature reached 89° in Central Park. At the New York Botanical Garden, the Corpse Flower (Amorphophallus titanum) is in its short-lived bloom (second photo). Blooms are rare and unpredictable. Each plant takes 7-10 years to store sufficient energy to bloom. The flower emits a pungent smell similar to rotting meat, which attracts insect pollinators that feed on dead animals. The New York Botanical Garden’s corpse flower is in full bloom today. Its bloom will wind down sometime tomorrow. Six photos are below. The Garden’s iconic Enid A. Haupt Conservatory is undergoing renovations. Its glass dome is now being protected during that process (first photo).

Infographic from Météo-France:

Villevielle has now reached 45.1°C (113°F) to set a new French national record high temperature.

The current temperature in Nimes is now 108. The French national record is 111.

As of 2 pm in France, Nimes has reached an all-time high temperature of 106 degrees. The previous mark was 104.

The historic June heat wave of 2019 continued to fry a region stretching from the Middle East to Europe today. Select high temperatures included: Aurillac, France: 99° (June record); Bolzano, Italy: 104° (Tied June and all-time record); Brive France: 102° (all-time record); Ferrara, Italy: 102° (June record); Innsbruck: 97° (Tied June record); La Roche, France: 102° (Tied all-time record); Latina, Italy: 99° (June record); Le Luc, France: 104° (June record); Le Puy, France: 99° (Tied all-time record); Lugano, Switzerland: 99° (Tied all-time record); Marseille, France: 100° (Tied June record); Milan: 97° (June record); Monte Malanotte, Italy: 104° (all-time record); Nantes, France: 102° (June record); Nevers, France: 102° (June record); Nimes, France: 100° (Tied June record); Orange, France: 104° (June record); Pamplona: 102° (Tied June record); Saint Yan, France: 104° (Tied all-time record); Torrejon, Spain: 104° (Tied June record); Toulouse, France: 104° (June record); and, Verona, Italy: 100° (June record). More fiery heat is likely tomorrow into the weekend. Back in the Northeast, New York City made a run at 90°, but fell just short with a high temperature of 89°. 90s were commonplace. Tomorrow could be a degree or two warmer. Saturday will likely be very warm, as well, but an approaching cold front could trigger strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions could develop later this month and then continue into at least the first half of July. The SOI was -30.16 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.408. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.8°. As suggested by the guidance and pattern, the closing week of June is seeing some of the warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 26, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.000 (RMM). The June 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.767. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter). The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 68%.

Historic June heat enveloped parts of Europe today. High temperature highlights included: Brive, France: 100° (tied all-time record); Clermont-Ferrand, France: 106° (all-time record); Dresden: 97° (June record); Frankfurt: 99° (June record); Innsbruck: 95° (tied June record); Luxeuil, France: 99° (June record); Nancy, France: 99° (June record); Orange, France: 102° (June record); Poznan, Poland: 100° (tied all-time record); Prague: 97° (June record); Wiesbaden: 98° (June record); and, Wroclaw, Poland: 99° (June record). In the Northeast, the warmest temperatures so far this summer will likely be experienced tomorrow and Friday. New York City could approach or even reach 90° for the first time this summer on either day. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions could develop later this month and then continue into at least the first half of July. The SOI was -19.47 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.673. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 25, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.769 (RMM). The June 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.695. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter). The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 65%. 　

Daily and, in cases, monthly record heat stretched from the Middle East to Europe today. On account of several remarkable outbreaks of heat, the global temperature anomaly of +0.98°C for 2019 ranks 3rd highest on record for the January-May period. Nine of the ten and 17 of the 20 warmest January-May periods occurred 2000 and afterward. All occurred 1990 or later. Nevertheless, the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas have yet to experience excessive heat. However, that region could see its warmest readings so far this summer during the next several days. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions could develop later this month and then continue into at least the first half of July. The SOI was -3.87 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.569. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.6°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 24, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.696 (RMM). The June 23-adjusted amplitude was 0.708. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter). The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City has increased to 57%. In addition, the probability that New York City will receive 50" or more precipitation is currently 72%.

After some showers and perhaps thundershowers tonight into tomorrow, a taste of summer will be on tap for several days. Some locations in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could experience their warmest readings so far this summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around June 19. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.02°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions could develop later this month and then continue into at least the first half of July. The SOI was -0.91 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.155. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.3°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 23, the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.708 (RMM). The June 22-adjusted amplitude was 0.850. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. The latest run of the EPS weeklies has now retreated from its cool outlook for the first 10 days of July. It has moved closer to the idea that the period will wind up warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region. Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter). The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City remains near 50%.

The pattern is undergoing a transition that could lead to some of the young summer's warmest readings to date from the middle of this week onward across parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -18.63 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.434. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.0°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 22, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.852 (RMM). The June 21-adjusted amplitude was 0.638. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. However, the most recent run of the EPS weeklies suggests a cooler first 10 days of July. For now, the base case remains a warmer outcome overall. The base case is supported by the recent steep decline in the SOI. The SOI's sharp and dramatic decline may well mark the start of a larger process that will kick start downstream changes that will lead to a period of above to perhaps much above normal warmth in the first half of July, some relaxation in the warmth afterward, and then a very warm second half of summer (perhaps along the lines of the evolution of 1993 in August into September). Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period as occurred on June 21-22. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter). The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently near 50%.

Today saw temperatures rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. High temperatures included: Albany: 80°; Allentown: 80°; Baltimore 83°; Boston: 83°; Harrisburg: 81°; Hartford: 82°; Islip: 81°; New York City: 79°; Newark: 83°; Philadelphia: 82°; Providence: 81°; Richmond: 83°; Scranton: 78°; and, Washington, DC: 83°. Tomorrow, temperatures will likely be several degrees warmer across much of the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -42.04 today. That is the lowest figure since February 19, 2019 when the SOI was -43.61. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.080. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.0°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 21, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.638 (RMM). The June 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.641. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest a warmer and drier outcome with the warmest anomalies likely during the second half of that period. However, the most recent run of the EPS weeklies suggests a cooler first 10 days of July. For now, the base case remains a warmer outcome overall. The base case is supported by the recent steep decline in the SOI. The SOI's sharp and dramatic decline may well mark the start of a larger process that will kick start downstream changes that will lead to a period of above to perhaps much above normal warmth in the first half of July, some relaxation in the warmth afterward, and then a very warm second half of summer (perhaps along the lines of the evolution of 1993 in August into September). Since 1994, there have been 6 cases where the SOI fell to -35.00 or below during the June 16-30 period. Following such SOI outcomes, the July 1-15 temperature averaged approximately 3.5° above the June 16-30 figure in New York City. Based on the modeled June 16-30 outcome, that would imply that the first half of July would be among the top third warmest first halves of the month on record. In addition, 4/6 (67%) of those cases were followed by an El Niño winter (one was followed by a La Niña winter and one was followed by a neutral ENSO winter). The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently near 50%.

The sun's return this afternoon ushered in what will likely be a drier period that could last into the first week of July. In addition, more typical summerlike warmth will develop, especially next week. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -35.29 today. That is the lowest figure since the SOI was -38.91 on February 20, 2019. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.291. In coming days, the ensembles suggest that blocking could redevelop. However, that round of blocking may not reach the magnitude of the previous round blocking. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.8°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 20, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.639 (RMM). The June 19-adjusted amplitude was 0.688. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest such a warmer and drier outcome. However, the most recent run of the EPS weeklies has turned cooler. For now, the base case remains a warmer outcome. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 54%.

Through 9 pm, Philadelphia's 2-day rainfall total was 4.63". That was the most rainfall since 5.18" fell during the September 6-8, 2018 period. A drier pattern appears likely to develop starting tomorrow. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around June 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. Conditions consistent with El Niño appear likely to persist through at least late June in Region 3.4. The SOI was -19.54 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.757. In coming days, the ensembles suggest that blocking could redevelop. However, that round of blocking may not reach the previous round in terms of magnitude. Blocking is consistent with warmth on the East Coast during the middle and latter part of summer. Hence, should blocking generally persist, the prospects of a warm or perhaps very warm second half of summer could increase. With respect to the current month, there were 13 cases where the AO averaged -0.75 or below during the first half of June. The mean temperature for the second half of June usually fell within 1° of normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region (73.6° is normal in New York City). According to the latest guidance, the June 16-30 temperature could finish near 74.8°. During the closing week of June, parts of the Northeast could see their warmest temperatures so far this summer. In addition, since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (as appears likely in 2019): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. On June 19, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.688 (RMM). The June 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.047. Since 1974 when MJO data was reported, years in which the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least two days, as was the case this year, were typically warmer than normal and drier than normal during the first 10 days of July. 1975 and 1985 were somewhat cooler than normal and very wet during the July 1-10 period. Some of the extended guidance is continuing to suggest such an outcome. The implied probability of a warmer than normal June in and around New York City is currently 55%.

As of 8 am, Allentown had picked up another 0.03" rain. That brings the year-to-date total precipitation during 2019 to 30.00". 2019 now ranks as Allentown's 103rd wettest year on record, just ahead of 1980 when 29.82" precipitation was recorded. The 102nd wettest year on record is 1965 when 30.55" precipitation was measured.