donsutherland1

That’s a false analogy. To “know everything” about climate is not the required level of knowledge to possess an understanding of some major elements of the climate and its evolution. In fact, the notion that science must understand 100% about something to reach conclusions is a rationalization for refusing to accept what science does understand. Indeed, a lot is not well understood when it comes to the processes that drive tropical cyclone intensification, yet enough is known for some really solid forecasting. As more knowledge is developed, forecasting will improve further.

The United States is a relatively small part of the world. A map illustrating the increasing global frequency of heat waves can be found here: https://maps.esri.com/globalriskofdeadlyheat/#

There’s no violation of Wien’s Law. The temperature at 7 km-10 km in the atmosphere where the trapping has been observed (cooling above/warming below) falls within those parameters.

Science gives people the tools to break out of the vast limitations of their five senses. Scientific knowledge has been accepted albeit with periods of difficulty across history. The science is now all but unequivocal in its general conclusions. Residual uncertainties persist, but no plausible science-based alternative explanation exists. Over time, even as the small number of vocal resisters to science try to thwart public understanding, attribution studies are eroding that point of resistance. In Europe, a critical threshold of public opinion has already been achieved. The United States is lagging, but opinion polls taken over the past five years show a decided move toward the scientific conclusion.

The paper describes the synoptic pattern involved. It was a warm one. Such patterns do not disappear in the context of climate change. The probability of their occurrence can change and their impact can change. The best estimate is that the given pattern resulted in an outcome that was 1.5C - 3.0C warmer than otherwise would have been the case due to climate change.

The attribution report can be found here: https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/July2019heatwave.pdf In sum, without the contribution of ongoing climate change, the heat would have been much less likely and, in some places, all but improbable.

I will need to look into this when I return to the U.S. in about three weeks.

Unfortunately, the Park has issues.

From Arctic researcher Julienne Stroeve: https://twitter.com/JulienneStroeve/status/1156641652787884038?s=20

The Middle Atlantic and southern New England region concluded a very warm July. In New York City, the mean temperature was 79.5°, which was 3.0° above normal. That was tied with 1983 as New York City's 11th warmest July on record. The last time July was warmer was in 2013 when July had a monthly average temperature of 79.8°. Such warmth has typically been followed by a warmer than normal August. Since 1869, New York City had 20 prior cases with a July mean temperature of 79.0° or above. The August mean temperature for those cases was 76.4° with a standard deviation of 2.2°. However, in the 11 cases in which the July average temperature was 79.5° or above, the August mean temperature was also 76.4°, but the standard deviation was just 1.2°. July 2019 falls into the latter warmer category. This data suggests that simply based on historical outcomes, August 2019 will very likely be warmer than normal in the region. Those historical outcomes are supported by teleconnections data and by at least some of the longer-range guidance. The historic heat that smashed high temperature records in much of western Europe and then Scandinavia will continue to affect Iceland and Greenland for another day or two. Near-record to possibly record surface mass balance (SMB) loss could occur during that period. Already, rapid losses in SMB have been occurring. Professor Jason Box, ice climatologist at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland observed, "On the Arctic Circle, southwestern Greenland ice sheet, 2019 melt to-date is 1.3x that of the previous record melt at that location in 2010. 1.4x that in 2012." High temperatures in Greenland included Ilulissat: 66°; Kangerlussuaq: 72°; Kulusuk: 59°; Narsarsuaq: 66°; Nuuk: 50°; and, Thule: 54°. Anchorage has concluded its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. The July 2019 mean temperature was 65.1°. That easily surpassed the old record of 62.7°, which was recorded in July 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was +3.14 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.647. A general tendency for blocking could persist through mid-August with perhaps some occasional fluctuations to positive values. This persistence of blocking will promote a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. Overall, 1993 remains the base case for the pattern that should generally prevail from mid-August to mid-September. Currently, the CFSv2 suggests that a warmer than normal pattern could develop around mid-August. On July 30, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.434 (RMM). The July 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.600. August will likely be warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The CFSv2, which understated the degree of warmth in July, suggests near normal conditions in August. However, based on the preponderance of date, it is likely an outlier. The potential exists for some cooler than normal to near normal readings from the middle of the first week of August into the latter portion of the second week of August. However, no notably cold readings appear likely. Afterward, warmer anomalies should return. The warmest anomalies relative to normal will likely occur during the second half of the month. Those warm anomalies will likely persist into at least the start of September. Finally, On July 30, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.998 million square kilometers (JAXA). That broke the daily minimum record of 6.132 million square kilometers, which was set in 2012. It is also the earliest figure under 6.000 million square kilometers. The previous earliest figure occurred on August 3, 2012 when Arctic sea ice extent was 5.911 million square kilometers. Based on the average statistical decline and on sensitivity analysis, it is likely that Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 4.000 million square kilometers at its minimum for only the second time on record. Some probabilities from the sensitivity analysis: 4.500 million square kilometers or below: 84% 4.000 million square kilometers or below: 63% 3.500 million square kilometers or below: 36%

Approaching thunderstorm:

University of Liège climatologist Xavier Fettweis indicated that Greenland could experience its biggest one-day surface mass balance loss on record tomorrow: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EAyrlbMXkAIeXa2.jpg:large

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.5 -0.3 0.3 1.5

This is what denial looks like. The BBC reported: The top 10 warmest years on record in the UK have all occurred since 2002, a new analysis from the Met Office says. Its State of the UK Climate report shows that 2014 remains the warmest year in a temperature sequence now dating back to 1884. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49167797 The underlying report, which is packed with data, can be found at: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/joc.6213 Tom Nelson tweeted the following response, "Sounds like complete BS to me: 'UK's 10 warmest years all occurred since 2002' - BBC News" https://twitter.com/tan123/status/1156527168572272640 When it comes to science, "sounds like" isn't a sufficient basis for arriving at a conclusion. It is nothing more than an evasion aimed at circumventing the rigor of the scientific method and its emphasis on evidence.In other words, he reached a conclusion without evidence, without data, without anything of substance to inform it. Put another way, his conclusion is little more than a conspiracy theory based on the implied premise that science and scientists are misleading the world. With respect to such conspiracy theories, the Oxford Research Encyclopedias explains: Conspiracy theories that accuse government of perverting science often view the conspirators as having socialist or totalitarian aims. Some Americans, Canadians, and others have objected to the government inclusion of fluoride into drinking water (Carstairs & Elder, 2008; Newbrun & Horowitz, 1999; Oliver & Wood, 2014b). They argued first that there was a conspiracy of silence to hide the negative side effects from an unsuspecting public (Connett, Beck, & Micklem, 2010), but also that fluoridation was the first step in a growing expansion of government control over an individual’s life, part of a trend in America toward socialism or totalitarianism … once the precedent was set for using public drinking water to medicate the population, the government would argue for the addition of birth control medication, or sedatives or an "anti-hostility" drug. (Reilly, 2006, p. 329)... Climate change denialist conspiracy theories often follow the same logic as other conspiracy theories accusing government. These conspiracy theories make a series of interrelated and often interchangeable claims: (1) that ideological organizations, including government, have used grant money to pervert the science; (2) that the peer-review process has become tainted by an oligarchy of scientists seeking to suppress dissent; (3) that climate science is less about science and more about socialist ideology; and (4) that larger international groups have faked climate science as a scheme to achieve global wealth redistribution or one-world government (Douglas & Sutton, 2015; Goertzel, 2010, 2013; Hurley & Walker, 2004). https://oxfordre.com/climatescience/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228620.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228620-e-328 In the end, when it comes to such flippant responses of denial, the public should reject them absent credible and sufficient evidence to support them. They should not be accepted at face value, especially in the absence of evidence. The absence of evidence reveals them for what they are, one variant in a range of conspiracy theories aimed at discrediting science and scientists.

On July 30, Arctic sea ice extent was 5.998 million square kilometers (JAXA). That broke the daily minimum record of 6.132 million square kilometers, which was set in 2012. It is also the earliest figure under 6.000 million square kilometers. The previous earliest figure occurred on August 3, 2012 when Arctic sea ice extent was 5.911 million square kilometers.

The historic heat that smashed high temperature records in much of western Europe and then Scandinavia will continue to affect Iceland and Greenland for another day or two. In response, Greenland could experience a dramatic decline in surface mass balance (ice melt) that could rival that which occurred in 2012 for the next 5-7 days. High temperatures in Greenland included Ilulissat: 64°; Kangerlussuaq: 66°; Kulusuk: 59°; Narsarsuaq: 59°; Nuuk: 55°; and, Thule: 61°. Colder than normal conditions will likely persist across western Russia, Finland, and parts of Scandinavia over the next few days. However, the cold has so far been less significant than had been modeled. Earlier today, record low readings included: Kirkenes Lufthaven, Norway: 41°; Kuopio, Finland: 45°; Mikkeli, Finland: 39°; Saratov, Russia: 50°; and, Utti, Finland: 45° (tied daily record). Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied near 100% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.9°-65.2°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was +9.91 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.793. A general tendency for blocking could persist through into the first week in August and perhaps beyond that. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. Overall, 1993 remains the base case for the pattern that should generally prevail from mid-August to mid-September. Currently, the CFSv2 suggests that a warmer than normal pattern could develop around mid-August. On July 29, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.600 (RMM). The July 28-adjusted amplitude was 0.621. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently near 100%. Most likely range: 79.5°-79.7° (3.0° to 3.2° above normal). August continues to look warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The warmest anomalies relative to normal will likely occur during the second half of the month. Finally, there is a chance that Arctic sea ice extent could fall below 6 million square kilometers on the July 30 or 31 reading. The earliest figure below 6 million square kilometers occurred on August 3, 2012 when Arctic sea ice extent was 5.911 million square kilometers.

During the natural climate cycles of the past 2,000 years, the timing of peak cold and warm periods (top 51 years) during each cycle differed globally. This time, the ongoing current warm period is starkly different. Instead, the timing of the peak warming (so far, as the warming is continuing) is astonishingly uniform. This suggests an outcome (impact of growing greenhouse gas forcing) that has largely overwhelmed "regionally specific mechanisms." A newly published paper explains: In contrast to the spatial heterogeneity of the preindustrial era, the highest probability for peak warming over the entire Common Era (Fig. 3c) is found in the late twentieth century almost everywhere (98% of global surface area), except for Antarctica, where contemporary warming has not yet been observed over the entire continent. Thus, even though the recent warming rates are not entirely homogeneous over the globe, with isolated areas showing little warming or even cooling, the climate system is now in a state of global temperature coherence that is unprecedented over the Common Era... Against this regional framing, perhaps our most striking result is the exceptional spatiotemporal coherence during the warming of the twentieth century. This result provides further evidence of the unprecedented nature of anthropogenic global warming in the context of the past 2,000 years. The above chart is from the referenced paper. The complete paper can be found at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1401-2.epdf

It should be noted that even if temperatures are measured in whole degrees, averaging over the entire global network over yearly periods can result in values that involve hundredths, thousandths, etc. In any case, the January-June 2019 vs. January-June 1998 average was nearly 0.3 degrees C.

I believe we have a shot during the second half of August into the start of September.

Yes. London’s temperature peaked at 100 at Heathrow Airport.

I suspect that Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 4 million square kilometers, which would be lower than the 2007 minimum. However, it will probably remain above the 2012 record.

The historic heat that smashed high temperature records in much of western Europe and then Scandinavia will continue to affect Iceland and Greenland over the next several days. In response to the warmth that will likely exceed 3 sigma, Greenland could experience a dramatic decline in surface mass balance (ice melt) that could rival that which occurred in 2012 for the next 5-7 days. Records included: Copenhagen-Roskilde: 86°; Kristiansund, Norway: 84°; Molde, Norway: 84°; Orland Iii, Norway: 84°; Orsta-Volda, Norway: 84°; Soenderborg Lufthavn, Denmark: 86°; Trondheim, Norway: 90°; and, Vigra, Norway: 82°. In addition, high temperatures in Greenland included 64° at Ilulissat and 66° at Kangerlussuaq. Colder than normal conditions will likely persist across western Russia, Finland, and parts of Scandinavia over the next few days. However, the cold has so far been less significant than had been modeled. Earlier today, Vadso, Norway registered a daily record low temperature of 41°. Near record low readings were also recorded at a few locations elsewhere in Scandinavia and also in France. Anchorage remains on course for its warmest month on record following its warmest June on record. Based on the latest guidance, Anchorage has an implied near 100% probability of seeing only its 19th month on record with a mean temperature of 60.0° or above and an implied near 100% probability of surpassing the 62.7° registered in July 2016 as its warmest month on record. The most likely range is currently 64.8°-65.2°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.4°C for the week centered around July 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral-warm ENSO conditions are now evolving. There is considerable uncertainty about the ENSO evolution later this summer into the fall. Some of the guidance shows the development of neutral-cool ENSO conditions. The SOI was +9.23 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.817. A general tendency for blocking could persist through into the first week in August and perhaps beyond that. Should blocking generally persist, a generally warm or perhaps very warm remainder of summer is likely. Since 1950, there was only a single year that saw the AO average -1.000 or below in May and -0.500 or below in June (the preliminary June 2019 average was -0.665): 1993. 1993 featured much above normal readings in the East during the late summer (August 15-September 15 period) and predominantly cooler than normal readings across the western third of the nation during much of the summer. In addition, since 1950, there have been four prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both June and July: 1957, 1958, 1993, and 2009. In three (75%) of those cases, August wound up warmer than normal. August 1993 was the warmest case. The mean anomaly from those cases suggests that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas could be approximately 0.5° to 1.5° above normal overall during August. Overall, 1993 remains the base case for the pattern that should generally prevail from mid-August to mid-September. Currently, the CFSv2 suggests that a warmer than normal pattern could develop around mid-August. On July 28, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.619 (RMM). The July 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.752. The implied probability of a warmer than normal July in New York City is currently near 100%. Most likely range: 79.3°-79.7° (2.8° to 3.2° above normal). August continues to look warmer than normal across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The warmest anomalies relative to normal will likely occur during the second half of the month. Finally, the UK Met Office validated the July 25 reading of 38.7°C (102°F) at the Cambridge University Botanic Garden as a new national high temperature record.

Through June, 2019 is running well ahead of 1998 in terms of its global anomaly (just under 0.98°C above the baseline vs. 1998's 0.69°C above the baseline on GISS). Overall, through the first six months of the year, 2019 ranked 3rd warmest. 1998 ranked 10th warmest. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/

Provisional UK National Record High Temperature Confirmed... The UK Met Office explained: A recording of 38.7°C at Cambridge Botanic Garden on Thursday 25 July has become the highest temperature officially recorded in the UK. The provisional value was released on Friday and has been subject to quality control and analysis over the past few days. It has now been validated by the Met Office observations’ team. This figure exceeds the previous record of 38.5°C recorded in Faversham, Kent, in August 2003. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/new-official-highest-temperature-in-uk-confirmed

I didn't say anything like that. Instead, I stated that recent changes in solar activity do not explain the ongoing observed warming. That is the point made by NASA, which I quoted. There has been a decoupling of the temperature trend (rising) from solar activity (relatively stable since the 1960s with some fluctuations).