donsutherland1

A generally cloudy, cool, and wet period lies ahead, especially from tomorrow through Friday timeframe. Amounts of rain will depend on the track of an offshore storm. Parts of eastern Long Island and eastern New England could receive high winds and heavy rain for a time. A light-to-moderate rainfall could occur in the larger New York City area and nearby suburbs. Meanwhile, another unseasonably cold air mass will likely move into the northern Rockies and then northern Plains. The potential for some record low temperatures exists in the Wednesday-Friday timeframe in that region with the highest probability initially being locations in Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. Blizzard conditions could also develop in a portion of the Dakotas. Some record low temperatures could follow the storm's departure. Farther east, this air mass will likely result in only a transient shot of cold. After mid-month, a warmer pattern will likely develop and then lock in throughout the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The last week of October will likely be unseasonably mild. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -1.94 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.256. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after mid-October, as does the extended range of the EPS. While the timing is far out, the EPS weeklies also suggest that the warmth could roll into the start of November. On October 6, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.326 (RMM). The October 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.291. The MJO has now been in Phase 1 for 17 consecutive days. That is the longest such streak since July 6-24, 2004 when the MJO was in Phase 1 for a record 19 consecutive days. In the two prior cases when the MJO moved into Phase 1 in late September or early October and then remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The current long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those earlier long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 60%.

Part of beach at Robert Moses State Park is already badly eroded.

Temperatures were generally above normal in the Middle Atlantic region today, especially from New York City southward. A generally cloudy, cool, and wet period lies ahead, especially around the Wednesday-Friday timeframe. Amounts of rain will depend on the track of an offshore storm. Parts of eastern Long Island and eastern New England could receive high winds and heavy rain for a time. A moderate to possibly significant rainfall could occur in the larger New York City area, though there remains considerable uncertainty. However, by the middle of this week, another unseasonably cold air mass will likely move into the northern Rockies. The potential for some record low temperatures exists in the Wednesday-Friday timeframe there with the highest probability being locations in Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. This air mass will likely result in only a transient shot of cold in the East afterward. However, after mid-month, the pattern could go zonal and much of the CONUS could become warmer than normal. Afterward, a ridge could redevelop in the East leading to a mild closing week of October. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around October 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.02°C. The strong cooling that took place in Region 1+2 during September indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have increased. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record two or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -6.77 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.015. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after mid-October, as does the extended range of the EPS. While the timing is far out, the EPS weeklies also suggest that the warmth could roll into the start of November. On October 6, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.291 (RMM). The October 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.301. The MJO has now been in Phase 1 for 16 consecutive days. That is the longest such streak since June 29-July 14, 2008 when the MJO was in Phase 1 for 16 consecutive days. In both cases when the MJO was moved into Phase 1 in late September or early September and remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. For New York City, an October mean temperature of 58.5°-59.5° (1.6° to 2.6° above normal) would be implied by those long-duration Phase 1 cases. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 61%.

There’s a torrential downpour in the vicinity of Yonkers and Mount Vernon, NY.

While I agree with the literature in psychology related to cognitive biases and decision making, a subset of which relates to climate change denial (e.g., motivated reasoning), one would expect that a competent scientist would be in a stronger position to analyze and assess data objectively. That at least some can't likely demonstrates the power of cognitive biases and the barriers to objectivity that they present. He has dispensed with objectivity. Sustaining his belief depends on rejecting the enormous body of evidence that now makes the argument for anthropogenic climate change unequivocal from an objective, purely evidence-informed path. Thus, he greatly discounts the quality of the instrument temperature record, embraces a "magical" starting point (1980), ignores paleoclimate data and, in doing so, implicitly denies the expertise and knowledge developed by a wide range of scientists in a broad slice of science. Another explanation may also be involved: shifting attention from his own forecasting failure. Upon further research, it turns out that back in 2013, he forecast that the Northern Hemisphere would begin cooling in 2015. So, 2015 should have been cooler than 2014 according to his forecast. For purposes of comparison, the 2013 Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly (GISS) was +0.81°C and in 2014 it was +0.92°C. Since then, the annual Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies have been: 2015: +1.18°C 2016: +1.31°C 2017: +1.18°C 2018: +1.04°C 2019: +1.18°C (January-August) During the January 2015 through August 2019 period, just 3 of 54 months have had a monthly anomaly that was cooler than the 2014 average while 43/54 months have had an anomaly of +1.00°C or above. IMO, just as the field of economics would benefit from a mechanism for tracking and evaluating forecasts and outcomes, the same applies here. There's nothing wrong with a failed forecast, as analysis of causes can lead to better future forecasts. Doubling down, though, is typically counterproductive, as it ignores the source(s) of the error. In this case, it seems that rather than trying to understand the cause of his failed Northern Hemisphere cooling forecast (growing anthropogenic forcing), he has decided to question the entire understanding of climate science.

A climate change denial website posted a story about Mototaka Nakamura who authored a book rejecting climate change. In part, the article states: “Global mean temperatures before 1980 are based on untrustworthy data,” writes Nakamura. “Before full planet surface observation by satellite began in 1980, only a small part of the Earth had been observed for temperatures with only a certain amount of accuracy and frequency. Across the globe, only North America and Western Europe have trustworthy temperature data dating back to the 19th century.” Nakamura's argument does not hold up. 1. The notion that 1980 was a magical point where temperature data suddenly became trustworthy has no basis in fact. Even if one relied strictly on the instrument record, the instrument record extends into the early 20th century and even middle to latter part of the 19th century over much of the world. One isn't dealing with "only a small part of the earth" where temperatures were observed with "accuracy and frequency." 2. It seems that Nakamura is largely or wholly unfamiliar with the paleoclimate record, or worse, dismisses it out of hand. Multiple proxies corroborate one another and point to the anomalous warming that has occurred particularly from the late 20th century to the present. One is dealing with tree rings, ice cores, corals, and sediments, among other proxies. 3. The physical properties of carbon dioxide have been known since the 19th century. Data for natural forcings e.g., solar irradiance exist. The recent temperature trend has decoupled from the trend in the natural forcings. When the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases is considered, one has a very close match to the observed temperature trend. Nakamura has impressive credentials. But, it appears that he is unwilling or unable to take an objective perspective of the climate change issue. At the same time, he subjectively dismisses the credibility of the temperature data that exists (while imposing a magical "1980" point where the data became useful) while largely or wholly ignoring paleoclimate data.

Milder air returned to the region today. Despite mainly cloudy skies, readings were generally in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Tomorrow will be unseasonably mild. However, by the middle of this week, another unseasonably cold air mass will likely move into the northern Rockies. The potential for some record low temperatures exists in the Wednesday-Friday timeframe there with the highest probability being locations in Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. It remains uncertain whether this air mass will result in only a transient shot of cold in the East afterward. However, after mid-month, the pattern could go zonal and much of the CONUS could become warmer than normal, especially during the closing week of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around September 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -11.22 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.693. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after the second week in October, as does the extended range of the EPS. While the timing is far out, the EPS weeklies also suggest that the warmth could roll into the start of November. On October 5, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.301 (RMM). The October 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.419. The MJO has now been in Phase 1 for 15 consecutive days. That is the longest such streak since June 11-25, 2017 when the MJO was in Phase 1 for 15 consecutive days. In both cases when the MJO was moved into Phase 1 in late September or early September and remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 55%. 　

Yes. Even with today's mainly overcast skies, I saw some.

Five photos from Robert Moses State Park (Babylon, NY) where the temperature reached 70° this afternoon with a brief break in the clouds.

The coolest air mass so far this fall sent the temperature to 45° in Central Park and 43° in Newark. That was New York City's lowest temperature since May 15 when the temperature fell to 44° and Newark's lowest temperature since May 13 when the temperature also reached 43°. Outside the cities, temperatures fell into the 30s. Even as the historic autumn heat wave of 2019 continued to abate, several locations set new daily record high temperatures. Records included: Birmingham: 97° Crestview, FL: 96° (12th consecutive daily record high temperature) Huntsville, AL: 97° Mobile: 94° Muscle Schoals, AL: 98° Nashville: 95° Across the Atlantic, many locations in Norway set daily record low temperatures. Moderation is likely over the next few days. However, by the middle of next week, another unseasonably cold air mass will likely move into the northern Rockies. The potential for some record low temperatures exists in the Wednesday-Friday timeframe there with the highest probability being locations in Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana. It remains uncertain whether this air mass will result in only a transient shot of cold in the East afterward. However, after mid-month, the pattern could go zonal and much of the CONUS could be come warmer than normal, especially during the closing week of the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around September 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -20.82 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.693. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after the second week in October, as does the extended range of the EPS. While the timing is far out, the EPS weeklies also suggest that the warmth could roll into the start of November. On October 4, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.417 (RMM). The October 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.673. The MJO has now been in Phase 1 for 14 consecutive days. That is the longest such streak since June 11-25, 2017 when the MJO was in Phase 1 for 15 consecutive days. In both cases when the MJO was moved into Phase 1 in late September or early September and remained in Phase 1 for 12 or more consecutive days, the average decline in the 14-day average temperature for the 2-3 weeks that followed the MJO's moving out of Phase 1 was gradual. The long-duration Phase 1 episode suggests that the second half of October could be warmer than normal. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 56%.

Whether or not the potential system verifies, this paper provides useful insight for November through April (the potential event is just outside the timeframe): https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2010MWR3362.1

Abstract: Supraglacial lakes are important to ice sheet mass balance because their development and drainage has been linked to changes in ice flow velocity and ice shelf disintegration. However, little is known about their distribution on the world’s largest ice sheet in East Antarctica. Here, we use ~5 million km2 of high-resolution satellite imagery to identify >65,000 lakes (>1,300 km2) that formed around the peak of the melt season in January 2017. Lakes occur in most marginal areas where they typically develop at low elevations (<100 m) and on low surface slopes (<1°), but they can exist 500 km inland and at elevations >1500 m. We find that lakes often cluster a few kilometres down-ice from grounding lines and ~60% (>80% by area) develop on ice shelves, including some potentially vulnerable to collapse driven by lake-induced hydro-fracturing. This suggests that parts of the ice sheet may be highly sensitive to climate warming. Excerpt from discussion: Our findings of widespread development of SGLs on floating ice could provide either a test, or constraint, for some of those models, and clearly indicate that some regions of the EAIS may be closer to the threshold of instability than previously thought. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-50343-5

Parts of the South again experienced blazing heat today. Select Daily Records: Athens, GA: 99° Atlanta: 97° Augusta, GA: 101° (new October record) Baton Rouge, LA: 97° (tied October record set on 10/1/1904 and tied on 10/2/1904) Birmingham: 98° ***9th consecutive daily record high temperature*** Columbia, SC: 100° Columbus, GA: 101° (new October record) Crestview, FL: 100° Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 97° Lake Charles, LA: 96° Macon, GA: 103° (new October record) ***11th consecutive daily record high temperature*** Meridian, MS: 101° ***4th consecutive 100° or above temperature*** Mobile, AL: 98° (tied October record set 10/3/2019) Montgomery, AL: 102° (tied October record set 10/3/2019) ***10th consecutive daily record high temperature*** New Orleans: 97° (new October record) Savannah: 97° (tied October record set 10/2/1986) Tallahassee: 97° (tied October record set 10/3/2019) Tuscaloosa, AL: 100° ***4th consecutive 100° or above temperature*** Wilmington, NC: 97° 100° or higher temperatures during October 1-4, 2019 for Select Cities: Athens, GA: 10/3 100° (October record) Augusta, GA: 10/3 100° 10/4 101° (October record) Birmingham: 10/2 103° (October record) 10/3 101° Chattanooga, TN: 10/2 100° (October record) 10/3 100° (October record) Columbia, SC: 10/4 100° Columbus, GA: 10/3 100° 10/4 101° (October record) Columbus, MS: 10/2 102° 10/3 104° (October record) Crestview, FL: 10/1 100° 10/3 101° (October record) 10/4 100° Huntsville, AL: 10/2 100° (October record) 10/3 100° (October record) Macon, GA: 10/3 102° 10/4 103° (October record) Meridian, MS: 10/1 101° 10/2 102° (October record) 10/3 102° (October record) 10/4 101° Montgomery, AL: 10/1 101° 10/3 102° (October record) 10/4 102° (October record) Raleigh: 10/3 100° (October record) Tuscaloosa, AL: 10/1 100° 10/2 101° (October record) 10/3 101° (October record) 10/4 100° Finally, today was Atlanta's 91st day of the year with a high temperature of 90° or above. That surpassed the annual record of 90 days, which was set in 1980 and tied in 2011.

The coldest air mass so far this season has moved into the region. New York City and Philadelphia will likely see low temperatures in the 40s. Outside the cities, readings in the 30s and frost are likely. Some of the coldest areas could dip below 30°. In the South, record heat continued for another day. However, the historic autumn heat wave is now coming to an end. Records for today included:　 Athens, GA: 99° Atlanta: 97° Augusta, GA: 101° (new October record) Baton Rouge, LA: 97° (tied October record set on 10/1/1904 and tied on 10/2/1904) Birmingham: 98° ***9th consecutive daily record high temperature*** Columbia, SC: 100° Columbus, GA: 101° (new October record) Crestview, FL: 100° Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 97° Lake Charles, LA: 96° Macon, GA: 103° (new October record) ***11th consecutive daily record high temperature*** Meridian, MS: 101° ***4th consecutive 100° or above temperature*** Mobile, AL: 98° (tied October record set 10/3/2019) Montgomery, AL: 102° (tied October record set 10/3/2019) ***10th consecutive daily record high temperature*** New Orleans: 97° (new October record) Savannah: 97° (tied October record set 10/2/1986) Tallahassee: 97° (tied October record set 10/3/2019) Wilmington, NC: 97° In addition, today was Atlanta's 91st day of the year with a high temperature of 90° or above. That surpassed the annual record of 90 days, which was set in 1980 and tied in 2011. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around September 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -19.79 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.028. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after the second week in October. While the timing is far out, the EPS weeklies also suggest that the warmth could roll into the start of November. On October 3, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.675 (RMM). The October 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.725. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 59%.

A lot of research is ongoing. We'll see what subsequent papers over the next few years show.

The temperature peaked at 97. Still, it was an extraordinarily impressive start to October.

The flag makes no sense. September was exceptionally warm globally. Europe had several big heat waves. East Asia had one. The month ended in the early stages of a historic autumn heat wave in the Southeast. The EU's Copernicus Program issued its September climate summary that confirmed the warmth. In part, the summary stated: Globally, September 2019 was 0.57°C warmer than the average from 1981-2010, making it the warmest September in our data record, although virtually on a par with 2016. https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-bulletins

At 12 pm, the temperature was 95° at Macon, GA. That tied the record of 95°, which was set in 1954. Today is Macon's 11th consecutive day on which the daily record was tied or broken.

At 12 pm, the temperature was 91° in Atlanta. That tied the daily record set in 1941 and tied in 1954 and 2018. It is also Atlanta's 91st 90° or above temperature this year. That passes the record of 90 days set in 1980 and tied in 2011.

Some climate scientists have calculated that the commitments made in the Paris Agreement only go about 50% of the way toward what's necessary to avoid warming above 1.5°C.

Yes. I agree. It should be noted that subsidies can skew things toward the activity that is being subsidized. Elimination or phase-out of the subsidies (the latter might be the easier policy path, but less effective climate change mitigation path) would be beneficial.

There is actually some work underway to provide a better measure of heat events based on a combination of duration, intensity, and frequency. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-50643-w Having said that, I agree with the idea of a population-weighted standardized measure for heat events. Constructing such a scale should be readily feasible using the software utilized to calculate NESIS. I had looked at the current heat in Atlanta relative to the historic early September 1925 heat wave. The peak of that heat wave occurred on 9/7-9 with an average high temperature of 101.3°. That was 2.96 sigma above the 1891-1920 mean temperature for 9/7-9. The 10/1-3 average for Atlanta is 95.7° (the 10/2-4 figure could be somewhat higher based on today's forecast). That is 3.04 sigma above the 1981-2010 mean temperature for 10/1-3. So, at least at its peak, the current heat wave is somewhat more impressive. I suspect that if the NAO had been closer to neutral, one would have seen far more frequent readings in the 90s into southern and perhaps central New England. Prior to 10/2/2019, JFK's latest 95° or above reading occurred on 9/11/1983 when the temperature hit 96°. The heat index topped out at 98° on 10/2. That was the latest 98° or above heat wave on record. The previous latest, which was a 100° heat index figure, at JFK occurred on 9/22/1970.

The big challenge for the tax credit would be how one would demonstrate that they qualified. It's easier to tax consumption than expect people to save receipts, etc., to demonstrate that they refrained from consuming certain products.

The historic autumn heat wave of 2019 toppled numerous records yet again in the South. Records included: Asheville, NC: 91° (tied October record set yesterday) Athens, GA: 100° (new October record) Atlanta: 98° (new October record) Augusta, GA: 100° (new October record) Birmingham: 101° Charlotte: 98° Chattanooga, TN: 100° (tied October record set yesterday) Columbia, SC: 100° Columbus, GA: 100° (tied October record) Crestview, FL: 101° (new October record) Elizabeth City, NC: 96°(new October record) Fayetteville, NC: 99° Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 98° (new October record) Greenville, MS: 99° (new October record) Greenwood, MS: 100° (new October record) Huntsville, AL: 100°(tied October record set yesterday) Jackson, KY: 95° Jackson, MS: 98° Macon, GA: 102° (new October record) Memphis: 98° (new October record) Meridian, MS: 102° (tied October record set yesterday) ***3rd consecutive 100° or above reading; no prior year had reached 100° in October; records go back to 1889*** Mobile: 98° (new October record) Montgomery, AL: 102° (new October record) Muscle Shoals, AL: 100° (tied October record set yesterday) Nashville: 99° (tied October record set yesterday) New Orleans: 95° Oak Ridge, TN: 98° (new October record) Paducah, KY: 93° Pensacola: 97° (new October record) Raleigh: 100° (new October record) Richmond: 97° Savannah: 96° Shreveport: 98° Tallahassee: 97° (new October record) Tupelo, MS: 99° (tied October record set yesterday) Tuscaloosa, AL: 101° (tied October record set yesterday) Wilmington, NC: 98° (new October record) Macon, GA has set record high temperatures on 10 consecutive days: September 24: 98°(old record: 96°) September 25: 99° (old record: 96°) September 26: 102° (old record: 96° September 27: 102° (old record: 94°) September 28: 98° (old record: 96°) september 29: 97° (old record: 95°) September 30: 100° (old record: 95°) October 1: 98° (old record: 94°) October 2: 98° (old record: 94°) October 3: 102° (old record: 93°) ***New October Record***

In the wake of yesterday's historic October heat, much cooler air returned to the region. Under clouds and occasional rain, readings remained in the 50s from New Jersey into New England. Meanwhile, farther south, the historic autumn heat toppled additional daily and monthly records. Today, Raleigh reached 100°, its latest 100° reading on record. The previous latest such reading occurred on September 10, 2007 when the temperature also hit 100°. As a result of today's October record high temperature, Raleigh's highest annual temperature for this year will occur in October for the first time on record. Raleigh's records go back to 1887. With its 101° degree high temperature, Birmingham registered its 8th consecutive daily record high temperature. Previously, the city had two 7-day stretches (September 3-9, 1925 and May 16-22, 1962). Birmingham also recorded its highest annual temperature for 2019 in October, the first time that occurred. Records there go back to 1895. Records included: Athens, GA: 100° (new October record) Atlanta: 98° (new October record) Augusta, GA: 100° (new October record) Birmingham: 101° Charlotte: 98° Chattanooga, TN: 100° (tied October record set yesterday) Columbia, SC: 100° Columbus, GA: 100° (tied October record) Crestview, FL: 101° (new October record) Elizabeth City, NC: 96°(new October record) Greenville-Spartanburg, SC: 98° (new October record) Huntsville, AL: 100°(tied October record set yesterday) Macon, GA: 102° (new October record) Mobile: 98° (new October record) Montgomery, AL: 102° (new October record) Nashville: 99° (tied October record set yesterday) Pensacola: 97° (new October record) Raleigh: 100° (new October record) Richmond: 97° Savannah: 96° Tallahassee: 97° (new October record) Tuscaloosa, AL: 101° (tied October record set yesterday) Wilmington, NC: 98° (new October record)　 Today was also Atlanta's 90th 90° or above temperature this year. That ties the annual record set in 1980 and tied in 2011. Today was also Atlanta's 13th 90° or above temperature after September 15. The previous record was 11, which was set just last year. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around September 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. The recent strong cooling in Region 1+2 indicates that the prospects for a neutral-cool ENSO during the winter have continued to increase. Since 1991 when weekly ENSO region data was available, five years have seen September record 2 or more weeks with -1.0°C or cooler weekly anomalies in Region 1+2: 1996, 1999, 2007, 2010, and 2017. 4/5 (80%) of those cases went on to feature warm December-February temperature anomalies in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Those cases include La Niña winters. However, the larger pool of neutral-cool ENSO winters, many of which predate the weekly ENSO regional data, have often featured frequent Atlantic blocking. For now, there is a mixed winter signal. The SOI was -20.44 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.423. Since 1950, there have been five prior cases when the AO averaged -0.500 or below in both July and August: 1950, 1958, 1960, 1968, and 2015. The average temperature for September through November in New York City was 58.9° (59.6° adjusted). All cases featured a warmer than normal fall. The potential for autumn 2019 to rank among the 30 warmest cases on record has increased in recent weeks. For New York City, that would translate into a September-November mean temperature of at least 58.8°. The latest EPS weeklies show a return to warm anomalies in the East after the second week in October. While the timing is far out, the EPS weeklies also suggest that the warmth could roll into the start of November. On October 2, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.729 (RMM). The October 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.758. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, the implied probability of New York City having a warmer than normal October is approximately 59%.