donsutherland1

The latest CFSv2 forecast for November indicates that most of the CONUS will be warmer than normal. Thus, the question becomes what kind of winter would be likely to follow such a November. With the December 2024-February 2025 Relative ENSO Region 3.4 Index (RONI) likely to average -0.500 or below, it makes some sense to examine how CONUS winters have fared in the past with winter values of -0.500 or below following widespread November warmth in the CONUS (1951-2010 baseline) since 1949-50. The Composite Temperature Anomalies for North America (1991-2020 baseline, as the larger period was not available) were as follows: November: December-February: The most recent C3S Multi-Ensemble Forecast for December 2024-2025: It should be noted that even warm winters have often seen periods of cold. In cases, there have been some periods of severe cold. Overall, the forecast winter anomalies are reasonably in line with those that have followed the kind of November that is forecast when the winter RONI averaged -0.500 or below.

It will turn cooler tomorrow with the mercury being confined to the 60s. A shortlived but fairly sharp cool shot is likely Sunday into Monday before it warms up quickly early next week. Out West, yet another round of near-record and record heat is affecting Phoenix and Tucson. The heat will persist through Sunday. Tucson could see its latest 100° temperature on record. Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall for October. The old record low figure through October 23 was 0.02" in 1947. At Philadelphia, rainfall has been 0.00". The old record was a trace during 1886. Further, today is Philadelphia's 25th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation (tied for the 4th longest dry stretch). The record streak of 29 days set during October 11-November 8, 1874 will likely be challenged or broken. Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal through October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. As a result, October monthly and all-time monthly record low precipitation amounts will likely be approached or broken in parts of the region. Select October and Monthly Record Low Precipitation Amounts: Allentown: October: 0.15", 1963 Monthly: 0.09", May 1964 Period of Record: January 1912-Present New York City: October: 0.14", 1963 Monthly: 0.02", June 1949 Period of Record: January 1869-Present Newark: October: 0.21", 1963 Monthly: 0.07", June 1949 Period of Record: January 1893-Present Philadelphia: October: 0.09", 1924 and 1963 Monthly: 0.09:, October 1924 and October 1963 Period of Record: November 1871-Pesent Trenton: October: 0.05", 1963 Monthly: 0.05", October 1963 Period of Record: September 1865-Present Wilmington, DE: October: 0.05", 1924 Monthly: 0.05", October 1924 Period of Record: January 1894-Present The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was +11.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +4.795 today. The preliminary figure exceeds the October monthly record of +4.521 that was set just yesterday. It is also the highest autumn value on record. The old autumn record of +4.544 was set on November 2, 1978. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 60.0° (2.1° above normal).

Today was another brilliant sun-filled day with temperatures reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s across the region. Daily records were set or tied at locations including: Bridgeport: 77° (tied record set in 1975) Islip: 82° (old record: 77°, 1979) New York City-JFK Airport: 80° (old record: 77°, 1975 and 1984) Philadelphia: 84° (old record: 83°, 1920) Trenton: 83° (tied record set in 1979) Wilmington, DE: 82° (old record: 81°, 1979) Tomorrow will be another sunny and unseasonably warm day, but it will be somewhat cooler than today. Temperatures will top out in the lower and middle 70s. It will turn cooler on Thursday with the mercury being confined to the 60s. A shortlived but fairly sharp cool shot is likely Sunday into Monday before it warms up quickly early next week. Out West, yet another round of near-record and record heat will affect Phoenix and Tucson tomorrow through Sunday. Tucson could see its latest 100° temperature on record. Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall for October. The old record low figure through October 22 was 0.02" in 1947. At Philadelphia, rainfall has been 0.00". The old record was a trace during 1886. Further, today is Philadelphia's 24th consecutive day with no measurable precipitation (tied for the 7th longest dry stretch). The record streak of 29 days set during October 11-November 8, 1874 will likely be challenged or broken. Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal through October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. As a result, October monthly and all-time monthly record low precipitation amounts will likely be approached or broken in parts of the region. Select October and Monthly Record Low Precipitation Amounts: Allentown: October: 0.15", 1963 Monthly: 0.09", May 1964 Period of Record: January 1912-Present New York City: October: 0.14", 1963 Monthly: 0.02", June 1949 Period of Record: January 1869-Present Newark: October: 0.21", 1963 Monthly: 0.07", June 1949 Period of Record: January 1893-Present Philadelphia: October: 0.09", 1924 and 1963 Monthly: 0.09:, October 1924 and October 1963 Period of Record: November 1871-Pesent Trenton: October: 0.05", 1963 Monthly: 0.05", October 1963 Period of Record: September 1865-Present Wilmington, DE: October: 0.05", 1924 Monthly: 0.05", October 1924 Period of Record: January 1894-Present The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was +16.44 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +4.521 today. The preliminary figure exceeds the prior October monthly record of +3.754, which was set on October 24, 2008. It is also the second highest autumn value, exceeded only by the +4.544 figure on November 2, 1978. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.8° (1.9° above normal).

Phoenix and Tucson are poised to see yet another round of record-challenging and record-breaking heat starting tomorrow. Phoenix could see one of its latest 100° temperatures on record. Tucson could see its latest 100° temperature on record.

Islip has reached 80° so far. That easily surpasses the daily record of 77° from 1979.

Under brilliant sunshine, parts of the Northeast experienced near record and record warmth. Records included: Bangor: 75° (old record: 72°, 1936) Boston: 83° (old recrod: 82°, 1920) Burlington: 77° (old record: 76°, 1995) Hartford: 86° (old record: 82°, 1920) ***highest reading so late in the season*** Islip: 77° (old record: 76°, 1963, 2016, and 2017) Manchester: 82° (old record: 77°, 1969 and 2017) Newark: 84° (tied record set in 1947) Poughkeepsie: 82° (old record: 81°, 1979) Providence: 81° (tied record set in 1920) Tomorrow will be another sunny and unseasonably warm day. Temperatures will again reach the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. Warmer spots will again reach or exceed 80°. With a PNA-/AO+ pattern in place, a generally above normal temperature regime could last through the remainder of October. Any cool shots during that time would likely be brief. A shortlived but fairly sharp cool shot is possible late next weekend into early next week. Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall. The old record low figure through October 21 was 0.02" in 1947. At Philadelphia, rainfall has been 0.00". The old record was a trace during 1886. In addition, today is Philadelphia's 23rd consecutive day with no measurable precipitation (tied for the 9th longest dry stretch). The record streak of 29 days during October 11-November 8, 1874 will likely be challenged or broken. Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal through October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. As a result, October and monthly record low precipitation amounts will likely be approached or broken in parts of the region. Select October and Monthly Record Low Precipitation Amounts: Allentown: October: 0.15", 1963 Monthly: 0.09", May 1964 Period of Record: January 1912-Present New York City: October: 0.14", 1963 Monthly: 0.02", June 1949 Period of Record: January 1869-Present Newark: October: 0.21", 1963 Monthly: 0.07", June 1949 Period of Record: January 1893-Present Philadelphia: October: 0.09", 1924 and 1963 Monthly: 0.09:, October 1924 and October 1963 Period of Record: November 1871-Pesent Trenton: October: 0.05", 1963 Monthly: 0.05", October 1963 Period of Record: September 1865-Present The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around October 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.33°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was +13.73 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.414 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.6° (1.7° above normal).

Through 3 pm, the Northeast has seen a number of record-tying or record-breaking temperatures including: Bangor: 74° (old record: 72°, 1936) Boston: 82° (tied record set in 1920) Hartford: 85° (old record: 82°, 1920) Islip: 77° (old record: 76°, 1963, 2016, and 2017) Manchester: 82° (old record: 77°, 1969 and 2017) Newark: 84° (tied record set in 1947) Poughkeepsie: 81° (tied record set in 1979) Providence: 81° (tied record set in 1920)

Islip has reached 77°. That breaks the daily record of 76° that was set in 1963 and tied in 2016 and 2017.

Newark has so far reached 80°. 2024 becomes the third consecutive year where Newark has seen an 80° or above temperature after October 20th. The 1946-1948 period is the only other occurrence of three consecutive years with such warmth after October 20th.

I agree that the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will be warmer than normal. The earlier CFSv2 was among the more aggressive systems when it came to cold.

The recent runs of the CFSv2 have grown warmer for December 2024-February 2025. It is uncertain whether this is a temporary development or the evolution of what will become a warmer winter forecast. From 10/1-10: From 10/11-20:

Tomorrow will be sunny and unseasonably warm. Temperatures will reach the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. A few of the warmer spots could reach 80°. With a PNA-/AO+ pattern in place, an above normal temperature regime could last into the closing days of October. Any cool shots during that time would likely be brief. Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall. The old record low figure through October 19 was 0.02" in 1886 and 1947). At Philadelphia, rainfall has been 0.00". The old record was a trace during 1886. In addition, today is Philadelphia's 22nd consecutive day with no measurable precipitation (tied for the 13th longest dry stretch). The record streak of 29 days during October 11-November 8, 1874 will likely be challenged. Almost all of the region is now in DO (abnormally dry) conditions. Southern New Jersey, Delaware, and southeast Pennsylvania are in D1 (moderate drought) conditions with some areas of D2 (severe drought conditions). Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal into at least the fourth week of October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. There is a possibility that October 2024 could see less than 1.00" monthly rainfall in New York City for the first October since 2013 and that Philadelphia could see its second consecutive October with less than 1.00" of rain. As a result, the expansive area of D0 conditions in the region will evolve into D1 conditions and the area of D2 conditions in southern New Jersey, and parts of Delaware and Maryland will likely grow. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was +11.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.159 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.6° (1.7° above normal).

In part, due to the ongoing intensifying drought, fall foliage in New York City's distant suburbs is beginning to explode in color. Five photos from Rockefeller Preserve State Park:

The false claim was reprehensible. He had no idea how much effort you put into your work and was way out of line.

The ongoing warming trend will continue into early next week. Tomorrow will again see temperatures top out at 70° or above in much of the region. With a PNA-/AO+ pattern in place, an above normal temperature regime could last into the closing days of October. Any cool shots during that time would likely be brief. Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall. The old record low figure through October 19 was 0.02" in 1886 and 1947). At Philadelphia, rainfall has been 0.00". The old record was a trace through 1886. In addition, today is Philadelphia's 21st consecutive day with no measurable precipitation (18th highest). The record streak of 29 days during October 11-November 8, 1874 will likely be challenged. Almost all of the region is now in DO (abnormally dry) conditions. Southern New Jersey, Delaware, and southeast Pennsylvania are in D1 (moderate drought) conditions with some areas of D2 (severe drought conditions). Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal into at least the fourth week of October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. There is a possibility that October 2024 could see less than 1.00" monthly rainfall in New York City for the first October since 2013 and that Philadelphia could see its second consecutive October with less than 1.00" of rain. As a result, the expansive area of D0 conditions in the region will evolve into D1 conditions and the area of D2 conditions in southern New Jersey, and parts of Delaware and Maryland will likely grow. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was -4.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.673 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.5° (1.6° above normal).

Precipitation through October 18: New York City: Trace; Philadelphia: 0.00" (Phoenix: Trace). The latest weekly precipitation forecasts remain bone dry for the Mid-Atlantic: CFSv2: ECMWF:

Philadelphia has a real chance to reach or break its record of 29 days.

The ongoing warming trend will continue through the weekend and into early next week. By Sunday parts of the region will be experiencing 70° or above high temperatures. With a PNA-/AO+ pattern now developing, an above normal temperature regime could last into the closing days of October. Any cool shots during that time would be brief. Through today, New York City has seen just a trace of rainfall. The old record low figure through October 18 was 0.02" in 1879, 1886, and 1947). At Philadelphia, rainfall has been 0.00". The old record was a trace through 1886. Almost all of the region is now in DO (abnormally dry) conditions. Southern New Jersey, Delaware, and southeast Pennsylvania are in D1 (moderate drought) conditions with some areas of D2 (severe drought conditions). Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal into at least the fourth week of October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. There is a possibility that October 2024 could see less than 1.00" monthly rainfall in New York City for the first October since 2013 and that Philadelphia could see its second consecutive October with less than 1.00" of rain. As a result, the expansive area of D0 conditions in the region will evolve into D1 conditions and the area of D2 conditions in southern New Jersey, and parts of Delaware and Maryland will likely grow. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around October 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late fall. The SOI was -8.45 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.364 yesterday. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.6° (1.7° above normal).

1992 was missing 185 days, 1994 was missing 154 days, etc.

As per prior discussions, the 1915-1948 period at Phoenixville is not reliable. Temperatures were overstated. Even after 1950, Phoenixville has an often absurd number of missing temperatures.

October 18 data isn't in. For October 17th, 2024 ranked 3rd lowest (5.534 million square kilometers). Only 2020 (4.959 million square kilometers) and 2019 (5.226 million square kilometers ranked lower). 2012 had extent of 5.804 million square kilometers. All of these figures are from JAXA.

Three points: 1. No change in warming is not the same thing as no warming 2. On the GISS dataset, there has been a modest increase in the rate of warming in recent decades 3. The climate story remains a narrative of unrelenting, steady warming that is in line with the rise in atmospheric greenhouse gases Aside from the overall trend, there can be significant year-to-year fluctuations in the overall global temperature on account of internal variability e.g., ENSO, and changes in non-greenhouse gas forcings (e.g., volcanic activity).

Phoenix's fall temperatures (10-year moving average) have been increasing relative to climate model projections (RCP 4.5), but have been running consistently above the 75th percentile for model projections.

Here's the type of post that makes the 2020 era Joe Bastardi dissatisfying: He knows that his forecast has changed and then he goes back to the one that has been replaced. He did a similar thing last year, dropping analogs that were in his final winter forecast and adding some analogs that weren't part of it showing a warm December to suggest that his forecast was on track.

A warming trend is imminent. Under bright sunshine, the mercury wil rise into the lower and middle 60s tomorrow. The warming trend will then continue through the weekend and into early next week. With a PNA-/AO+ pattern now developing, an above normal temperature regime could last into the closing days of October. Precipitation in the northern Mid-Atlantic region will likely remain below to much below normal into at least the fourth week of October. The ECMWF ensembles, along with the experimental AIFS and FuXi AI versions continue to show very little precipitation. There is a possibility that October 2024 could see less than 1.00" monthly rainfall in New York City for the first October since 2013 and that Philadelphia could see its second consecutive October with less than 1.00" of rain. As a result, D0 and D1 conditions will likely continue to expand in the region and the pocket of D2 conditions in southern New Jersey will likely grow. The NAO fell to a preliminary -2.751 on September 24th (all-time September record: -2.371, September 12, 1971). That was the 9th lowest value on record. La Niña winters following September cases where the NAO fell to -1.900 or below featured a predominantly positive NAO. The most recent such winters were 2016-2017 and 2022-2023. The mean temperatures for those winters in New York City were 39.3° and 41.0° respectively. The 1991-2020 normal value is 36.2°. A warmer outcome is favored by the October run of the C3S multi-model forecast for Winter 2024-2025. Weekly ENSO data remains unavailable due to the disruptive impact Hurricane Helene's floods had on NCEI in Asheville. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the fall. The SOI was -10.83 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.364 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 59.6° (1.7° above normal).