donsutherland1

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly cloudy and very warm. Showers and thundershowers are likely as a cold front crosses the region. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 80s in much of the region. A few places could reach or exceed 90° . Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 89° Newark: 94° Philadelphia: 89° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and cooler. Additional showers are possible. Out West, Phoenix will likely see the development of a period of extreme heat this weekend into at least early next week. The temperature could reach 115° on one or more days during the Monday-Wednesday period. The last time that happened in June was 2017 when there were five such days. The historic average is 0.4 days per year in June. The 1991-20 average is 0.6 days. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan.

I don’t agree. The major greenhouse gas polluters (https://b8f65cb373b1b7b15feb-c70d8ead6ced550b4d987d7c03fcdd1d.ssl.cf3.rackcdn.com/cms/reports/documents/000/002/327/original/Carbon-Majors-Report-2017.pdf?1499691240) want to pass the blame for their scope 3 emissions (the majority of their emissions). This is their effort to deflect attention from their responsibility so as to be able to continue to profit from products that impose huge and growing externalities on the public whom they try to blame.

Temperatures again rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the region. Some strong thunderstorms moved through the area during the late afternoon and early evening. More high temperature records were tied or broken across northern New England, Quebec, and New Brunswick today. Records included: Baie-Comeau, QC: 85° (old record: 73°, 2017) Caribou: 92° (old record: 87°, 1974 and 2017) Edmunston, NB: 87° (old record: 84°, 2014) Fredericton, NB: 92° (old record: 91°, 2008) Gaspé, QC: 88° (old record: 84°, 1979) La Tuque, QC: 91° (old record: 88°, 2011) Miramichi, NB: 93° (old record: 88°, 2017) Moncton, NB: 91° (old record: 87°, 1950) Quebec City: 87° (tied record set in 2008) Sept-Îles, QC: 75°/24.0°C (old record: 75°/23.9°C, 1974) St. Stephen, NB: 93° (old record: 90°, 2008) Trois-Rivières, QC: 89° (old record: 87°, 2011) Two daily rainfall records were set today. Rainfall through 8 pm included: Newark: 2.19" (old record: 0.92", 1947) White Plains: 1.55" (old record: 1.19", 1992) Tomorrow will be another hot day. Afterward, it will become noticeably cooler. Cooler than normal conditions will likely prevail through the weekend. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -18.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.372 today. On June 6 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.954 (RMM). The June 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.961 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.8° (1.8° above normal).

Yes. Both set new records with lows of 76 yesterday.

Morning thoughts... Today will be variably cloudy and very warm. Showers and thundershowers are likely. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 87° Newark: 91° Philadelphia: 89° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and still very warm. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely from a frontal passage.

Yes, that makes a difference.

The wind was out of the south off the ocean. That kept JFK cooler than places like LGA.

The air mass moved east-northeastward from the Northern Plains and southern Canada. The core of the heat passed to our north. In addition, there was some flow off the southwestern Atlantic and contributed to higher humidity for the New York Metro Area.

The hottest part of the air mass moved across New England. Boston also had a westerly component to its wind direction for much of the day.

At 10 pm, the temperature at Central Park was 82° and it was 80° at LaGuardia Airport. Both locations are on track to break their daily record high minimum temperatures. The current records are: Central Park: 73°, 1883 (New York City area record) LaGuardia Airport: 72°, 1968 and 1999 Both locations have had a daily minimum temperature of 76° so far. It should be noted that the 73° minimum temperature is the lowest New York City area record high minimum temperature for June. New York City area refers to JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Central Park.

Yes, above. That’s a typo.

No, 81 is correct.

Summerlike warmth again toasted the Northeast. Numerous daily records were set in northern New England, New Brunswick and Quebec. High temperatures included: Albany: 90° Allentown: 92° Atlantic City: 91° Baltimore: 95° Bangor: 93° (old record: 90°, 1936) Boston: 96° Burlington: 96° (old record: 94°, 1999) Caribou: 92° (old record: 84°, 1991) Chibougamau, QC: 87° (old record: 83°, 1991) Concord, NH: 94° Georgetown, DE: 94° Edmunston, NB: 92° (old record: 81°, 2006) Fredericton, NB: 94° (old record: 86°, 1999) Gaspé, QC: 92° (old record: 85°, 1991) Harrisburg: 93° Hartford: 94° La Tuque, QC: 92° (old record: 89°, 2008) Manchester, NH: 95° Miramichi, NB: 94° (old record: 79°, 2017) Moncton, NB: 90° (old record: 83°,1999) Montreal: 89° New York City-LGA: 93° New York City-NYC: 91° Newark: 95° Philadelphia: 94° Plattsburgh: 93° (old record: 88°, 1959) Portland: 94° Poughkeepsie: 94° (tied record set in 2008) Providence: 91° Quebec City: 90° (old record: 85°, 2008) Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 87° (old record: 80°, 1995) Saguenay, QC: 93° (old record: 83°, 1974) Scranton: 90° Sherbrooke, QC: 87° (tied record set in 2008) St. Stephen, NB: 94° (old record: 81°, 2014) Sterling, VA: 91° Trenton: 91° Trois-Rivières, QC: 90° (old record: 84°, 2008) Val d'Or, QC: 89° (old record: 86°, 1955) Washington, DC: 90° Wilmington, DE: 91° 90° Days for Select Cities (through June 7): Albany: 1 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 5 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 6 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 5 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 2 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 4 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 5 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 5 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 2 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 2 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 3 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 2 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 7 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 6 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 5 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 7 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 4 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 4 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) The hot weather will likely last into the middle of the week before a cooling trend commences. Late this week and weekend could see cooler than normal conditions. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -18.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.539 today. On June 5 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.961 (RMM). The June 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.994 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.0° above normal).

The point-and-click website has had real issues lately. Its forecast for Central Park is 81 (actual temperature: 86). This is a chronic issue with the site and it is inconsistent with the area forecast discussion.

At 10 am, the temperature at Caribou was 84°. That ties the daily record set in 1991. Widespread near record and record heat is likely across northern New England and Quebec.

Morning thoughts... Today will be partly cloudy and hot. A few places could see an afternoon or evening shower or thundershower. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 80 and lower 90s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 89° Newark: 95° Philadelphia: 92° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and still warm. Temperatures will likely run a few degrees cooler than today. Showers and thundershowers are possible.

The following information is based on a multiple regression equation based on high temperatures at Newark, LaGuardia Airport, and White Plains to estimate the high temperatures at Central Park for June to address the impact of today’s thick tree cover. The equation was based on June 1-June 30, 1971-2000 daily high temperatures. That period was the last base normal period during which at least half of the days were not impacted by increasing tree cover. A few days were excluded from the sample due to “Missing” values for White Plains. Based on the regression equation, there may have been up to 32 additional 90° days in June during the 2000-20 period. That would lift Central Park’s average number of such days during June 2000-20 to 3.8 from 2.2. That would be reasonably in line with the 5.2 recorded at LaGuardia Airport and 4.2 at Newark.

The weekend ended on another hot note. Temperatures soared into the 90s in many areas, including some areas along the Long Island Sound and Atlantic Ocean. Temperatures reached 90° or above at locations including: Allentown: 92° Atlantic City: 91° Baltimore: 96° Boston: 94° Bridgeport: 93° (old record: 88°, 1953, 1968, and 2020) Burlington: 95° (old record: 94°, 1925) Concord: 93° Harrisburg: 94° Hartford: 94° Islip: 90° (old record: 89°, 1968) Manchester, NH: 94° (old record: 93°, 1953) New Haven: 92° (old record: 88°, 1953) New York City-LGA: 95° (old record: 93°, 2010) New York City-NYC: 92° Newark: 97° (old record: 92°, 2010) Philadelphia: 93° Poughkeepsie: 92° (tied record set in 1947) Providence: 93° Scranton: 90° Sterling, VA: 93° (old record: 92°, 2005) Toronto: 92° (old record: 91°, 2008) Trenton: 92° Washington, DC: 92° White Plains: 91° Wilmington, DE: 90° 90° Days for Select Cities (through June 6): Albany: 0 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 4 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 5 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 4 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 2 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 3 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 4 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 4 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 2 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 2 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 2 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 1 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 6 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 5 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 4 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 6 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 3 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 3 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Tomorrow will be another hot day. The heat will be most intense relative to climatology across northern New England and Quebec. Widespread near record and record high temperatures are likely in that region. The hot weather will likely last into the middle of the week before a cooling trend commences. Late this week and weekend could see cooler than normal conditions. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -21.44 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.840 today. On June 4 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.995 (RMM). The June 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.089 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

I don’t agree that the Conservancy is an “innocent bystander.” The NWS has no jurisdiction beyond the equipment. It cannot contract work crews to trim the trees.

Using a regression equation for all June maximum temperatures for EWR, LGA, HPN, and NYC for 1971-00 (the last “normal” period that was mostly free of the impact of tree overgrowth at Central Park) but excluding the small number of days with missing values at HPN, Central Park should have had a high temperature of 93 yesterday. That the rooftop Manhattan mesonet station had a high of 91 yesterday adds evidence that the statistical estimate for Central Park is reasonable. The actual value of 89 was more than 2 sigma below the expected value. It falls outside the 95% confidence interval based on the high temperatures at EWR, LGA, and HPN. The coefficient of determination for the equation is 0.955. Almost certainly, there are other such outlier values. I will run through the June 2000-2020 data looking for such values later today or this evening. A similar situation likely exists for July and August.

Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny and hot. Temperatures will likely top out in the upper 80 and lower 90s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 91° Newark: 98° Philadelphia: 95° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and hot. Temperatures will likely run a few degrees cooler than today. The following record high minimum temperatures could be tied or broken today: Bridgeport: 65°, 2016, 2019 and 2020; Low through 8 am: 65° Islip: 66°, 2016 and 2019; Low through 8 am: 66° New York City-JFK: 67°, 1988 and 2016; Low through 8 am: 69° New York City-LGA: 72°, 1966; Low through 8 am: 76° Newark: 71°, 1981 and 2020; Low through 8 am: 71° White Plains: 68°, 1966; Low through 8 am: 68°

During summer 2020 (June-August), Newark had an average high temperature of 86.5°. If one used the 1971-00 relationship (regression analysis based on June 1-August 30 maximum temperatures), the Central Park mean temperature was predicted to be 85.2°. Using the 1991-00 data-derived regression estimate, the predicted mean temperature would have been 84.4°, a 0.8° decrease. The actual figure was, in fact, 84.4°. The changed statistical relationship highlights the growing disconnect between regional temperatures and those in Central Park. As the divergence continues, it is reasonable to question whether Central Park should remain a first order station, especially as it is becoming less representative of the region’s climate.

Under bright sunshine, much of the region away from the Long Island Sound or Atlantic Ocean saw the temperature reach or exceed 90°. 90° or above high temperatures included: Allentown: 90° Atlantic City: 90° Baltimore: 94° Boston: 91° Harrisburg: 92° Hartford: 92° New York City-LGA: 94° (old record: 91°, 1953) Newark: 95° (old record: 92°, 1932, 1953, and 1966) Philadelphia: 93° Poughkeepsie: 92° (tied record set in 1934 and tied in 1966) Scranton: 90° Sterling, VA: 92° (old record: 90°, 2002) Trenton: 90° Washington, DC: 91° Wilmington, DE: 91° In addition, Bridgeport tied its daily record of 86°, which was set in 1953. 90° Days for Select Cities (through June 5): Albany: 0 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 3 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 4 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 3 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 1 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 2 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 3 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 3 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 1 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 2 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 1 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 0 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 5 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 4 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 3 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 5 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 2 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 3 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) In the Northern Plains, more recordbreaking heat occurred today ahead of an advancing cold front. Daily records included: Bismarck: 103° (old record: 96°, 1952) Duluth: 94° (old record: 88°, 1925 and 1988) Fargo: 100° (old record: 95°, 1939) Minneapolis: 99° (old record: 92°, 1925) Toronto: 88° (old record: 86°, 1940) Hot weather will likely last into the middle of next week before a cooling trend commences. Late next week and weekend could see cooler than normal conditions. Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.32°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was -20.32 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.811 today. On June 3 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.089 (RMM). The June 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.058 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Unfortunately, that is the case when it comes to the climate record. The Conservancy does not place much value in the integrity of the climate record. That's the reality of its inaction despite what is now unequivocal evidence of the impact of the overgrowth of the trees around the ASOS.

The Conservatory won’t deal with the problem. However, it has acted in other cases when there were hanging limbs, so it has the capacity to do what is needed.