donsutherland1

Near 11 am, the warm front was pushing northward through the New York City area. The temperature in Central Park had reached 50°. Temperatures in New York City ranged from 59° on Staten Island to 45° in the Bronx. In addition, some record highs were tied or broken in the region: Islip: 53° (old record: 52°, 1990) New York City-LGA: 52° (tied daily record set in 1951 and tied in 1953 and 1955) Westhampton: 53° (old record: 52°, 2018)

Belmar, which was 48° at 7 am had a 9 am temperature of 55°. The warm front continues to push northward through New Jersey.

Morning thoughts... The EPS and GEFS are in relatively good agreement that the MJO will likely move into Phase 6 toward mid-February. Uncertainty exists with respect to amplitude (mainly amplitude of +1.000 or above vs. amplitude of +1.500 or above) and duration in Phase 6. At low amplitudes in Phase 6, the PNA has greater influence over the overall pattern during mid- and late February. In general, when the PNA is negative, warmth prevails in the Middle Atlantic region; when the PNA is positive, colder than normal conditions prevail. At high amplitudes when tropical forcing is stronger, the AO has a greater influence. The AO+ is warm; the AO- is cold. The latest guidance suggests that the AO will likely remain positive to strongly positive for at least the next two weeks. There is more uncertainty concerning the state of the MJO. Overall, based on the preponderance of guidance, odds may somewhat favor a warmer than normal February 15-21 period overall with cold shots being relatively transient in nature. That has been the base case in the extended range on the EPS. The GEFS have moved in that direction.

Wonderful photo. Burlington has been somewhat below normal in terms of snowfall (greater snow deficits in southern Vermont). That should change over the next two weeks.

Overnight, the area of precipitation split into two distinct areas, one associated with the cold front and one offshore. As a result, precipitation totals were much lower than had been modeled across much of the region. At 6 am, the warm front was advancing toward central New Jersey. The temperature was 52° in Atlantic City with winds out of the south. Farther south, readings were in the middle and upper 50s in such cities as Salisbury and Washington, DC. Meanwhile, at Newark, the temperature was 41° with a north-northeast wind. At New York City, the temperature was 39° with a northeast wind. As a rapidly strengthening storm comes northward, the warm front will likely push across the region during the middle or latter part of the morning. Temperatures could then rise rapidly into the 50s for several hours ahead of the trailing cold front. Daily record high temperatures could be challenged in a few locations. Select daily records include: Bridgeport: 52°, 1951 Islip: 52°, 1990 New York City: 54°, 1938 Newark: 55°, 1990 Providence: 53°, 1925 and 1946

A very warm first week of February is concluding on a wet and wild note. A rapidly intensifying storm will pass just to the north and west of Newark and New York City tomorrow morning. As it does so, it will likely pull very warm northward across eastern portions of the New York City area from the Southeast where temperatures flirted with and, in some cases, set daily record high temperatures today. High temperatures included: Albany, GA: 80°; Atlanta: 72°; Charleston, SC: 74°; Columbia, SC: 75°; Macon, GA: 78° (old record: 77°, 1927); Savannah: 80°; and, Wilmington, NC: 76°. As a result, daily record high temperatures are likely in Islip, New Haven, and later Providence. There is also a chance that New York City's lowest remaining daily record high temperature of 54°, which was set in 1938, could be toppled. On account of the warmth, the February 1-7 mean temperature will very likely average near 44.0° in New York City. Since 1869, New York City has had 10 prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above during the February 1-7 period. All 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later. Overnight into tomorrow morning, the storm will likely bring 0.50" to 1.50" rain to the Middle Atlantic region. Some locally higher amounts are possible. Select rainfall amounts through 8 pm in the South included: Asheville: 3.01" (old daily record: 1.85", 1897; 4th highest daily rainfall amount in February); Atlanta: 2.28"; Charlotte: 3.02" (old daily record: 2.91", 1955); and, Norfolk: 1.02". As the storm moves past the region, strong winds will buffet the area. A period with gusts of 50 mph or above is possible from mid-morning into late afternoon. The temperature will then fall rapidly during the evening. A cooler than normal, but not severely cold, weekend lies ahead. Moderation will again occur next week. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic Cities through at least the first 10 days of February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was +0.24 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.115. During the second week of February, the AO could generally be at or above +2.000 following a peak of +4.000 or above. At the same time, the NAO will likely be positive and the PNA will likely be negative. Since 1950, there have been no 4" or greater snowstorms during February with such teleconnections in Philadelphia or New York City. Boston saw four, with the biggest being 10.2" on February 24-25, 1990. The biggest snowfalls in Philadelphia and New York City were 2.3" and 2.0" respectively. Near or just after mid-month, some of the guidance brings the MJO into Phase 6. The MJO, its amplitude, and the state of the teleconnections will determine the overall pattern during the start of the second half of February. During the February 10-29 period, when the MJO is in Phase 6 at low amplitude, the state of the PNA has the largest impact on temperatures in the Middle Atlantic region. For example, in New York City, the mean temperature for PNA+ cases during the 1981-2019 period was 34.1°. For PNA- cases, it was 41.7°. In contrast, when the MJO has an amplitude of 1.000 or above, the state of the AO is more important. During such cases, the mean temperature for AO+ cases was 40.9° while the mean temperature for AO- cases was 35.5°. The mean temperature for the entire February 10-29, 1981-2019 period was 36.5°. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 13. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the second week of February. On February 5, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.045 (RMM). The February 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.684.

Through 9 am, New York City had received 0.43" rain. That brought year-to-date precipitation to 2.43", which is 1.87" below normal. However, another system will likely bring 0.50"-1.50" rain late today into tomorrow to much of the Middle Atlantic region. A few locations could see locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00". That system was already producing heavy rain in parts of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley. As of 9:35 am, Knoxville, TN had picked up 2.22" rain. That set a new daily record for February 6. The previous record was 1.75", which was set in 2004. Over the past two days, Knoxville has received 5.04" rain.

Today was noticeably cooler than yesterday, but still warmer than normal for the season. Overall, the first week of February will be much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The February 1-7 mean temperature will very likely average 40.0° or higher in New York City. Since 1869, New York City has had 10 prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above during the February 1-7 period. All 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic Cities through at least the first 10 days of February. Nevertheless, the pattern will be increasingly active over the next week. Tonight into tomorrow and tomorrow night into Friday, a pair of storms will affect the region. Over the next 60 hours, much of the region will see 1.25"-2.50" precipitation with locally higher amounts. The most likely areas to see accumulating snowfall from these storms will be northern Pennsylvania, central and upstate New York, and northern New England. Another system could follow during the weekend. Some rain or snow showers with perhaps a minor accumulation of snow is possible from Washington, DC to New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was +6.34 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.167. During the second week of February, the AO could generally be at or above +2.000 following a peak of +4.000 or above. At the same time, the NAO will likely be positive and the PNA will likely be negative. Since 1950, there have been no 4" or greater snowstorms during February with such teleconnections in Philadelphia or New York City. Boston saw four, with the biggest being 10.2" on February 24-25, 1990. The biggest snowfalls in Philadelphia and New York City were 2.3" and 2.0" respectively. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 13. Wave 2 activity will dissipate following the first week of February. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through into the second week of February. On February 4, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.681 (RMM). The February 3-adjusted amplitude was 0.681.

From Copernicus: Global temperatures were substantially above average in January 2020. The month was: - 0.77°C warmer than the average January from 1981-2010, becoming by a narrow margin the warmest January in this data record; - warmer by 0.03°C than January 2016, which was previously the warmest January; - close to 0.2°C warmer than January 2017, which is now the third warmest January; - exceeded in anomalous warmth only by February and March 2016. European-average temperature anomalies are generally larger and more variable than global anomalies, especially in winter, when they can change by several degrees from one month to the next. The European-average temperature for January 2020 was particularly high. The month was: - 3.1°C warmer than the average January in the period 1981-2010; -warmer than any other January in this data record, by about 0.2ºC in the case of January 2007, the previous warmest January. https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-january-2020

Morning thoughts... The Arctic Oscillation is now poised to begin a rise to extreme positive levels over the next several days. Through the coming weekend, little or no accumulating snow is likely for snow-starved Baltimore, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. An AO+ pattern favors upstate New York, northern New England, and southern Quebec. Such cities as Burlington, Caribou, Montreal, and Plattsburgh typically do well in such patterns. For reference, a quick look at Burlington is in order. Through February 4, Burlington had received 41.6" snow, which is 5.2" below normal. During the February 1-14, 1950-2019 period, Burlington had daily snowfall of 2"or more on 9.9% days and daily snowfall of 4" or more on 5.2% days. However, when the AO was +1.000 or above, those percentages increased to 11.2% and 6.5% respectively. Therefore, based on the forecast pattern, Burlington has an above climatological probability of seeing such snowfall. In fact, when the AO was +1.000 or above, the frequency of daily snowfall of 10" or more was just over 80% above climatology. Consistent with the pattern, the guidance is in reasonable consensus that Burlington will likely see 10"-20" snow through February 9. As a result, Burlington will likely move from below average seasonal snowfall to above average seasonal snowfall at the end of the coming weekend.

Temperatures again rose into the 50s and 60s in the Middle Atlantic region today. High temperatures included: Allentown: 60°; Atlantic City: 69° (old record: 68°, 1991); Baltimore: 67°; Georgetown, DE: 69° (old record: 66°, 1988); Islip: 53°; New York City: 60°; Newark: 59°; Philadelphia: 64°; Richmond: 72° (tied record set in 1991); Salisbury: 67°; Sterling: 67°; Washington, DC: 65°; and, Wilmington, DE: 68° (old record: 67°, 1991). Following today's warmth, tomorrow will be noticeably cooler, but still warmer than normal for the season. Overall, the first week of February will be much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The February 1-7 mean temperature will likely average 40.0° or higher in New York City. Since 1869, New York City has had 10 prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above during the February 1-7 period. All 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic Cities through at least the first 10 days of February. Nevertheless, the pattern will become increasingly active over the next week. Tomorrow night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday, a pair of storms will affect the region. Over the next 84 hours, much of the region will see 1.25"-2.50" precipitation with locally higher amounts. The most likely areas to see accumulating snowfall from these storms will be northern Pennsylvania, central and upstate New York, and northern New England. Another system could follow during the weekend. A light accumulation of snow is possible from Washington, DC to New York City. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was +3.65 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.191. During the second week of February, the AO could generally be at or above +2.000 following a peak above +4.000 or above. At the same time, the NAO will likely be positive and the PNA will likely be negative. Since 1950, neither Philadelphia nor New York City saw any 4" or greater snowstorms during February with such teleconnections. Boston saw four, with the biggest being 10.2" on February 24-25, 1990. The biggest snowfalls in Philadelphia and New York City were 2.3" and 2.0" respectively. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 12. Wave 2 activity will dissipate following the first week of February. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through into the second week of February. On February 3, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.668 (RMM). The February 2-adjusted amplitude was 0.606.

The latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will reach extreme positive values (probably +5.000 or above for the first time since March 8, 2015): Extreme AO+ situations typically lead to much above normal temperatures on the U.S. East Coast and in Europe. In large part, the consistent guidance suggesting the potential for an extreme AO+ event allowed for a high degree of confidence that the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions would likely see a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal February and that Europe would see a much warmer than normal February (with the warmest anomalies occurring in eastern Europe and western Russia). The cooler air that moves into Europe later this week will again yield to much warmer than normal conditions early next week. The GEFS Day 8-12 average 500 mb height anomalies forecast shows ridging on the East Coast and over much of Europe. The 8-12 day temperature average is warmer than normal in both areas. Finally, should the AO remain strongly positive through mid-month, the probability of significant snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region will be low during that period. Not surprisingly, the ECMWF, which had been showing a potentially major snowstorm during the second week of February has now backed off from that idea.

Afternoon thoughts... 1. The light rain that had been affecting parts of the region continues to move eastward, with most of the showers south of Long Island's South Shore. 2. New York City is solidly on track for a 40° or higher mean temperature for the first week of February. The most likely range is 42.0° (7th warmest) to 43.7° (3rd warmest). 3. A series of waves Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night into Friday will bring mainly rain to such cities as Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC. Appreciable snow will be confined well north and west of the cities, particularly in an area running from central/upstate New York to northern New England. 4. Another system will move rapidly eastward off the Middle Atlantic coast and out to sea this weekend. Historic experience with the teleconnections and the emerging model consensus suggest that there is the potential for a light accumulation of snow in the above-mentioned cities. The risk of a significant (6" or greater snowfall) during the weekend is low.

Longer stretches are possible. For example, the 1949-50 through 1954-55 winters saw 6 consecutive winters where NYC received less than 20" snow. The average seasonal snowfall was just 14.6".

I hope we can get at least a moderate, if not significant snowfall, before winter concludes. It has been a painful winter so far.

Today saw widespread readings in the 50s and 60s in the Middle Atlantic region. High temperatures included: Atlantic City: 64°; Baltimore: 67° (old record: 66°, 1932); Bridgeport: 53°; Clarksburg, WV: 67° (old record: 66°, 1989); Islip: 53°; New York City: 57°; Newark: 58°; Philadelphia: 60°; Sterling: 67° (old record: 66°, 1991); Washington, DC: 63°; and, Wilmington, DE: 64° (tied record set in 1991). Across the Atlantic where winter has been largely absent, even greater warmth prevailed. Locations in France and Italy saw record daily highs and, in cases, February record high temperatures. Europe remains on track for a much warmer than normal February with the greatest warmth likely occurring in eastern Europe and western Russia. Tomorrow will be another unseasonably mild day. Overall, the first week of February will be much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The February 1-7 mean temperature will likely average 40.0° or higher in New York City. Since 1869, New York City has had 10 prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above during the February 1-7 period. All 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later. Somewhat colder air could return late in the first week of February or just afterward. However, Arctic air is unlikely. In addition, no significant snowfalls (6" or above) are likely through at least the first week of February for Washington, DC to New York City and the surrounding region. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, a pair of storms will likely snowfall to parts of northern Pennsylvania, central and upstate New York, and northern New England Wednesday night and Thursday and Thursday night into Friday. The second storm will likely be the larger of the two. The major cities from Washington to New York City will likely see no more than a light accumulation from that storm. Another system could follow during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was -8.79 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.279. The guidance suggests that the AO could spend an extended period at or above +3.000 beginning during the second week of the month. Since 1950, none of the 36 days during which the AO was +3.000 or above saw daily snowfall of 1" or more in New York City or Philadelphia. During the overall February 5-20, 1950-2019 period, daily snowfall of 1" or more occurred on 8% days in New York City and 7% of days in Philadelphia. The biggest snowstorm during that timeframe when the AO was +3.000 or above was February 9-10, 1982. Boston picked up 4.0" snow; New York City received 0.3" snow; and, Philadelphia saw 0.6" snow. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 11. Wave 2 activity will dissipate following the first week of February. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through into the second week of February. On February 2, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.593 (RMM). The February 1-adjusted amplitude was 0.623.

Groundhog Day was milder than normal across the region. However, even warmer temperatures prevailed in an area running from the Plains States to the Great Lakes region where numerous record high temperatures were toppled. Daily records included: Chicago: 52° (old record: 51°, 1992); Colorado Springs: 73° (old record: 66°, 1934); Denver: 74° (tied record set in 1934); Goodland, KS: 79° (old record: 72°, 1934); Indianapolis: 63° (old record: 61°, 2016); Madison: 51° (old record: 47°, 1987); Milwaukee: 56° (old record: 49°, 1992); Peoria: 61° (old record: 54°, 1920); St. Louis: 70° (old record: 66°, 2016); and, Wichita: 76° (old record: 73°, 1924). Kansas City had a high temperature of 65°, which missed the daily record of 69°, which was set in 1924 and tied in 1992. However, Kansas City was able to settle for a victory in Super Bowl LIV. Even milder air will push into the region tomorrow. Temperatures could peak well into the 50s during the first half of the work week in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. As a result, the first week of February will be much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The February 1-7 mean temperature will likely average 40.0° or higher in New York City. Since 1869, New York City has had 10 prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above during the February 1-7 period. All 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later. Somewhat colder air could return late in the first week of February or just afterward. However, Arctic air is unlikely. In addition, no significant snowfalls (6" or above) are likely through at least the first week of February for Washington, DC to New York City and the surrounding region. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, a storm will likely bring a moderate or significant snowfall to parts of northern Pennsylvania, central and upstate New York, and northern New England late this week. The major cities from Washington to New York City will likely see no more than a light accumulation from that storm. Another system could follow during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was -13.59 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.857. The guidance suggests that the AO could spend an extended period at or above +3.000 beginning during the second week of the month. Since 1950, none of the 36 days during which the AO was +3.000 or above saw daily snowfall of 1" or more in New York City or Philadelphia. During the overall February 5-20, 1950-2019 period, daily snowfall of 1" or more occurred on 8% days in New York City and 7% of days in Philadelphia. The biggest snowstorm during that timeframe when the AO was +3.000 or above was February 9-10, 1982. Boston picked up 4.0" snow; New York City received 0.3" snow; and, Philadelphia saw 0.6" snow. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 10. Wave 2 activity will dissipate following the first week of February. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through into the second week of February. On February 1, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.609 (RMM). The January 31-adjusted amplitude was 0.818.

I agree with your concerns, as well as thoughts for I-84 and northward. Over the next week or so, I think there remain opportunities for at least some snowfall, generally well north and west of PHL-EWR-NYC-BDR. I'm not confident in the EPS's idea that the AO will exceed +6.000 for multiple days. +3.000 and +4.000 seem likely. Have a great rest of the weekend.

Morning thoughts... 1. Much of the region saw little or no snow during the past 36 hours. The seasonal snow drought continues. 2. The AO remains forecast to rise to extreme positive levels after the first week of the month (> +5.000 on the EPS). 3. The day 10-15 mean 500 mb height anomalies on the EPS depict a ridge that extends over the southeast and below normal height anomalies over a broad expanse of below normal height anomalies that stretch from the Pacific Northwest, across much of Canada, and into northern Europe. 4. A cluster of February AO +4.000 or above cases had a similar hemispheric pattern, though the composite mean didn't stretch quite as far east into Scandinavia as is currently shown on the EPS. The 500 mb height anomalies and surface temperature anomalies for that subset are below: 5. Parts of the Northeast were shown as somewhat colder than normal with the Lower Mid-Atlantic and Southeast being warmer than normal. Most of Europe was warmer than normal. 6. Within a week, the cool anomalies in the Northeast, where they existed, yielded to warmer anomalies. Europe remained warm. 7. Overall, the ideas of a warmer to much warmer than normal February in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions and much warmer than normal (especially in eastern Europe and western Russia) would remain solidly on track if the forecast teleconnections and depicted pattern on the EPS verify.

With good agreement among the EPS and GEFS that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) will likely have an extended duration where it is at +3.000 or above, below are the Northern Hemisphere composite 500 mb and surface temperature anomalies for all February dates when the AO was +3.000 or above. February 1950-2019 cases with the AO of +3.000 or above (n=81 days): Warmth in the eastern United States and in much of Europe, an outcome that appears likely for February 2020, was associated with those dates. At the same time, only 1 of New York City's 6" or greater February snowstorms (1950-2019) occurred when the AO was at or above +3.000. Neither Philadelphia nor Washington, DC had any such storms with such a strongly positive AO.

The ongoing sea level rise may not seem apparent, as the sea level has been rising by millimeters per year. But over time, the rise is already playing out in an increased incidence of tidal flooding events. A useful paper: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5291542/pdf/pone.0170949.pdf

February began on a mild note as winter 2019-2020 remained remarkably moderate. In parts of the northern Rockies, temperatures soared to records. At Lewistown, MT, the temperature topped out at a springlike 70°, which tied that city's February record of 70°, which occurred on February 27, 1932. Even warmer weather lies ahead for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions in coming days. As a result, the first week of the month will be much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The February 1-7 mean temperature will likely average 40.0° or higher in New York City. Since 1869, New York City has had 10 prior cases where the temperature averaged 40.0° or above during the February 1-7 period. All 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later. Somewhat colder air could return late in the first week of February or just afterward. However, Arctic air is unlikely. In addition, no significant snowfalls (6" or above) are likely through at least the first week of February for Washington, DC to New York City and the surrounding region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was -15.27 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.022. The guidance suggests that the AO could spend an extended period at or above +3.000 beginning during the second week of the month. Since 1950, none of the 36 days during which the AO was +3.000 or above saw daily snowfall of 1" or more in New York City or Philadelphia. During the overall February 5-20, 1950-2019 period, daily snowfall of 1" or more occurred on 8% days in New York City and 7% of days in Philadelphia. The biggest snowstorm during that timeframe when the AO was +3.000 or above was February 9-10, 1982. Boston picked up 4.0" snow; New York City received 0.3" snow; and, Philadelphia saw 0.6" snow. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 9. Upper stratospheric warming will peak just after the first week of February before slowly fading. Strong Wave 2 activity will occur during the first week of February driving the warming of the upper stratosphere, but then diminish. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through into the second week of February. On January 31, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.809 (RMM). The January 30-adjusted amplitude was 1.133.

Stunning.

New York City's 9th warmest January on record concluded with another warmer than normal day and a monthly mean temperature of 39.1° (6.5° above normal). In addition, Boston (38.0°) had its 3rd warmest January; Newark (38.7°) had its 9th warmest January; and, Philadelphia (38.9°) had its 14th warmest January. January's notable warmth will be followed by a warmer to much warmer than normal February in the region. Exceptional February warmth has occurred in 3 of the last 10 winters in New York City: 2012: 40.9° mean temperature (3rd warmest) 2017: 41.6° mean temperature (2nd warmest) 2018: 42.0° mean temperature (1st warmest) February will start mild with the first week of the month winding up much warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The February 1-7 mean temperature could average 40.0° or higher, much as it did during the January 1-7 period. Somewhat colder air could return late in the first week of February or just afterward. However, Arctic air is unlikely. In addition, no significant snowfalls (6" or above) are likely through at least the first week of February for Washington, DC to New York City and the surrounding region. Tomorrow, a storm moving offshore will likely intensify rapidly as it moves into and through the waters off New England. However, little or no snow is likely for the New York City area. There remains some possibility that a light accumulation could occur over parts of Cape Cod. Based on the latest guidance, the likely seasonal snowfall distribution through January 31, will be < 20" at Boston; < 6" at New York City; < 3" at Philadelphia; and, < 2" at Washington, DC. There were 5 prior cases that met the above criteria for seasonal snowfall through January 31: 1895-96, 1918-19, 1931-32, 1949-50, and 1972-73. The single case with a colder than normal January (1895-96) saw 43.0" snow in the February-April period in New York City. All of the remaining four cases, all of which had a warmer than normal January, had less than 12.0" (mean: 4.6"; median 2.8"). Should blocking largely fail to develop in February, the risk of the very low snowfall for the remainder of winter 2019-20 would increase. For historical perspective, 6% of winters since winter 1869-70 had less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City. For winters that concluded February with less than 10" seasonal snowfall to date, one-third went on to see less than 10" seasonal snowfall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.3°C for the week centered around January 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.10°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. For February 1981-2019, the following monthly temperature averages were recorded for cases when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly averaged 0.00°C to +0.75°C: ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO+: NYC: 36.9°; Philadelphia: 37.6° (n=101 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 40.5°; Philadelphia: 40.8° (n=57 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly < 0: AO-: NYC: 34.7°; Philadelphia: 34.9° (n=97 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO+: NYC: 35.7°; Philadelphia: 36.6° (n=82 dates); EPO+ subset: NYC: 41.2°; Philadelphia: 42.0° (n=18 dates) ENSO R1+2 Anomaly > 0: AO-: NYC: 30.9°; Philadelphia: 31.6° (n=58 dates) February 1981-2019: NYC: 35.8°; Philadelphia: 36.0° The SOI was -2.82 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.489. Upper stratospheric warming will commence near the beginning of February and continue through February 8. Strong Wave 2 activity will occur during the first week of February driving the warming of the upper stratosphere. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through at least the first week of February. On January 30, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.131 (RMM). The January 29-adjusted amplitude was 1.101. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that February will be warmer than normal in New York City. There is a near 50% probability that February 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest February cases on record.

For those who are interested, the February and all-time AO+ record is +5.911, which was set on February 26, 1990.