donsutherland1

The growing snow drought continued in the Middle Atlantic region. Instead, above normal temperatures and periods of rain prevailed today. Milder conditions will likely continue through Thursday. Afterward, a short-lived push of cold air could occur during the second half of the coming week into the weekend. Unlike with the prior Friday-Saturday cold shot, modified Arctic air will be involved, so minimum temperatures could fall into the teens in New York City and lower teens and perhaps single digits outside the City during the height of the cold. Afterward, warmer air will quickly return. It is likely that the February 15-21 period will be warmer than normal overall. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first two weeks of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. Winter 2019-2020 has become the 24th winter on record that has seen New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 10. Mean total snowfall for the 23 prior cases was 15.3" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 30% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 78% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. Just 13% of such winters wound up with 30" or more seasonal snowfall vs. 41% of winters in the historic record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was +9.85 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +6.342. That figure exceeded the previous all-time record high figure of +5.911, which was set on February 26, 1990. Near or just after mid-month, the guidance brings the MJO into Phase 6. There remains some uncertainty concerning its amplitude and duration in Phase 6. Its amplitude and the state of the teleconnections will determine the overall pattern during the start of the second half of February. During the February 10-29 period, when the MJO is in Phase 6 at low amplitude, the state of the PNA has the largest impact on temperatures in the Middle Atlantic region. For example, in New York City, the mean temperature for PNA+ cases during the 1981-2019 period was 34.1°. For PNA- cases, it was 41.7°. In contrast, when the MJO has an amplitude of 1.000 or above, the state of the AO is more important. During such cases, the mean temperature for AO+ cases was 40.9° while the mean temperature for AO- cases was 35.5°. The mean temperature for the entire February 10-29, 1981-2019 period was 36.5°. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 17, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely warm toward mid-February. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February. On February 9, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.736 (RMM). The February 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.622. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 54% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record.

On February 6, 2020, NBC News reported: Facebook groups that routinely traffic in anti-vaccination propaganda have become a resource for people seeking out a wide variety of medical information — including about the ongoing flu season. Facebook hosts a vast network of groups that trade in false health information. On “Stop Mandatory Vaccination,” one of the largest known health misinformation groups with more than 178,000 members, people have solicited advice for how to deal with the flu. Members of the group have previously spread conspiracies that outbreaks of preventable diseases are “hoaxes” perpetrated by the government, and use the groups to mass-contact parents whose children have died and suggest without evidence that vaccines may be to blame. https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/social-media/facebook-anti-vaxxers-pushed-mom-not-give-her-son-tamiflu-n1131936 Unfortunately, dubious groups such as those cited in the article are not limited to any particular field. Indeed, one sees a vibrant ecosystem of such actors and groups, all devoted to sowing doubt about anthropogenic climate change or outright denying it despite the overwhelming evidence for it. One useful approach for identifying disinformation related to climate change is to examine any claims that seen novel, dismiss climate change, or with which one is unfamiliar. One should check for peer-reviewed research that supports the claim (recent research is stronger than old research that may have been superseded). If such support is found, the claim is credible. If not, it should be viewed as speculative or, at best, a hypothesis that has yet to be tested.

The ECMWF has taken a step toward the GEFS, as it now brings the MJO into Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.000 or above.

The 2020s have just gotten started. Already, the new decade has set a number of records: 1. Warmest January on record globally (Copernicus) and first above freezing January mean temperature in Moscow. Boston's warmest January day on record (74°). 2. Highest AO figure on record. 3. All-time record high temperature of 65° in Antarctica. 4. Record amplitude for the MJO's Phase 5. Records likely to be set at some point this decade include: 1. Highest global mean temperature anomaly (all the major datasets: Berkeley, Copernicus, GISS, HadCrut, and NOAA) -- probably during multiple years. 2. Lowest summer Arctic sea ice minimum extent. At the same time, one can expect numerous daily and monthly record high temperatures in many parts of the world. Some areas will likely set all-time records.

Today's preliminary value of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is +6.342. That surpassed the daily record of +4.492 for February 10, which was set in 1990. It would also surpass the all-time record high figure of +5.911, which was set on February 26, 1990. Daily records go back to 1950.

No worries.

For relevant context, my winter idea was warm, but not warm enough. Snowfall for NYC was shown to be somewhat below normal and below normal in Philadelphia to Washington, DC. The statistical probability of April's having a mean temperature of 48° or below (referenced CFSv2 map), which last occurred in 1975 (47.9°), is now less than 1% on account of the warming that has occurred since then. The coldest April since then was April 2018 (49.5°). The last similarly cold or colder April prior to 1975 was April 1943 (46.9°). So, even before the warming of recent decades, such a monthly temperature was a fairly uncommon event. With shorter wave lengths in April, one can't profile the months using teleconnections or ENSO. However, there has been one powerful clue somewhat prior to the start of exceptionally cold Aprils: the presence of severely cold air relative to normal across much or all of Canada during the second half of March. March 16-31, 1943: March 16-31, 1975: From this far out, not even the best ensemble systems can reliably forecast anomalies at such timeframes. Forecasts for extremes need to be backed by strong evidence precisely because extremes are, by definition, low probability scenarios. In the end, while I am not sure whether April will wind up cooler or warmer than normal at this point in February, the climate record (especially when one considers the observed ongoing warming) strongly argues against the kind of scenario on the CFSv2 map (also at very low skill at this timeframe).

Temperatures rebounded into the lower and middle 40s across the region today. Prior to that, some areas in northwestern New Jersey, northeastern Pennsylvania, and southeastern Pennsylvania received a light snowfall. Milder conditions will likely continue through mid-week. Afterward, a short-lived push of cold air could occur during the second half of the coming week into the weekend. Unlike with the prior Friday-Saturday cold shot, modified Arctic air will be involved, so minimum temperatures could fall into the upper teens in New York City and lower teens and perhaps single digits outside the City during the height of the cold. Afterward, warmer air will quickly return. It is likely that the February 15-21 period will be warmer than normal overall. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first two weeks of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was +3.03 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.180. That figure would surpass the +5.147 value reached on February 9, 1990 for the daily record. It is also the highest value since March 8, 2015 when the AO was +5.588. Near or just after mid-month, the guidance brings the MJO into Phase 6. There remains some uncertainty concerning its amplitude and duration in Phase 6. Its amplitude and the state of the teleconnections will determine the overall pattern during the start of the second half of February. During the February 10-29 period, when the MJO is in Phase 6 at low amplitude, the state of the PNA has the largest impact on temperatures in the Middle Atlantic region. For example, in New York City, the mean temperature for PNA+ cases during the 1981-2019 period was 34.1°. For PNA- cases, it was 41.7°. In contrast, when the MJO has an amplitude of 1.000 or above, the state of the AO is more important. During such cases, the mean temperature for AO+ cases was 40.9° while the mean temperature for AO- cases was 35.5°. The mean temperature for the entire February 10-29, 1981-2019 period was 36.5°. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 16, but the upper stratosphere could warm toward mid-February. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the second week of February. On February 8, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.625 (RMM). The February 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.584. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 56% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record.

A lot depends on the evolution of ENSO. A hot summer is plausible, but so are other outcomes if El Niño conditions try to redevelop.

From this vantage point, spring is looking to be somewhat milder than normal, but a lot more variable than the winter has been, in my view. Parts of Canada may be cooler than normal, especially central and western Canada. Of course, things could still change. Precipitation could be above normal in the region, especially early in the spring.

To average 5 degrees below the current base mean temperature for April (1981-2010), April would need a monthly mean temperature of 48 degrees. Not even April 1982 achieved such cold despite the record cold early in the month. The last time that happened was 1975. Statistically and historically, the probability of the CFSv2 and JB verifying with such cold in the NYC region is very low.

The climatological probability of April's have a temperature anomaly of 5 degrees or more below normal in the New York City area (including NJ and CT) is low. At this point in time, the drivers of the April pattern cannot reliably be pinned down. It is perilous to assume an extreme outcome, especially from this far out. For a reminder of the risks involved, one need look no farther than the forecasts from multiple outlets concerning a severely cold winter that were held through mid-January by which the fundamental winter pattern (strong AO+/EPO+ and related outcomes) were widely evident. Indeed, recognizing the pattern evolution and to its credit, BAMWX threw out its 1995-96 analog at the end of December and has done exceptionally well since then. That move highlights a separate risk that is often ignored: analogs can anchor one to a bad forecast if one holds onto them too long when there is little evidence that things are evolving toward those analogs.

I agree with the emphasis on the nature of the rapid warming that has been taking place and continues to occur. That development needs to be considered in seasonal forecasting, etc.

I believe he meant that timing of events. It most definitely is warmer than it had been in the 1980s.

Today's preliminary value for the Arctic Oscillation is +5.180. That would surpass the daily record of +5.147, which was set in 1990.

You're welcome. It's a beautiful place. It's also a great place to see the flora respond to the weather. Now that the train show is finished, the Garden had very few people this afternoon. The orchid show opens to the public next weekend.

February 2020 had a mean temperature of 44.1° during the first week in February, the 3rd warmest figure on record. 2020 was the 11th year since regular record keeping began in 1869 during which the first week of February had a mean temperature of 40° or above in New York City. All prior 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later. Milder weather will begin to return to the region tomorrow. However, a short-lived push of cold air could occur during the second half of the coming week. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic Cities through at least the first two weeks of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was +3.89 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.173. During the second week of February, the AO could generally be at or above +2.000 following a peak of +4.000 or above. At the same time, the NAO will likely be positive and the PNA will likely be negative. Since 1950, there have been no 4" or greater snowstorms during February with such teleconnections in Philadelphia or New York City. Boston saw four, with the biggest being 10.2" on February 24-25, 1990. The biggest snowfalls in Philadelphia and New York City were 2.3" and 2.0" respectively. Near or just after mid-month, the guidance brings the MJO into Phase 6. There remains some uncertainty concerning its amplitude and duration in Phase 6. Its amplitude and the state of the teleconnections will determine the overall pattern during the start of the second half of February. During the February 10-29 period, when the MJO is in Phase 6 at low amplitude, the state of the PNA has the largest impact on temperatures in the Middle Atlantic region. For example, in New York City, the mean temperature for PNA+ cases during the 1981-2019 period was 34.1°. For PNA- cases, it was 41.7°. In contrast, when the MJO has an amplitude of 1.000 or above, the state of the AO is more important. During such cases, the mean temperature for AO+ cases was 40.9° while the mean temperature for AO- cases was 35.5°. The mean temperature for the entire February 10-29, 1981-2019 period was 36.5°. At present, it is likely that the February 15-21 period will be warmer than normal as a whole with only transient cold shots. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 15, but the upper stratosphere could warm toward mid-February. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the second week of February. On February 7, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.589 (RMM). The February 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.291. Finally, a trace of snow was recorded in Atlanta following last year's first winter on record where not even a trace of snow was recorded there.

Following yesterday’s deep storm, a colder air mass moved into the region. Nevertheless, the high temperature reached 41° in New York City and the daily mean temperature was still 2° above normal. Five photos from the New York Botanical Garden where the first crocus buds have broken forth. Whether they represent an accurate long-range forecast for the coming spring remains to be seen.

IMO, FV3 should not have been operationalized until the known biases that led to the initial delayed implementation were proved to have been fixed. The decision to rush its implementation was not good. If anything, the continuing issues raise questions about the FV3 core itself, namely whether it actually is better than what it replaced.

Earlier today, daily snowfall amounts were as follows at select cities: Binghamton: 7.2" Burlington: 9.9" Caribou: 8.9" (old daily record: 8.3", 1949) Snowfall totals for winter 2019-2020 to date include: Albany: 36.9" (1.1" below normal) Baltimore: 1.8" (10.7" below normal) Binghamton: 50.5" (0.6" below normal) Boston: 14.9" (11.0" below normal) Burlington: 55.0" (6.4" above normal) Caribou: 84.6" (18.6" above normal) New York City: 4.8" (9.6" below normal) Newark: 6.9" (9.2" below normal) Philadelphia: 0.3" (12.4" below normal) Portland: 46.2" (8.7" above normal) Washington, DC: 0.6" (9.5" below normal) Winter 2019-2020 is the 27th winter on record that has seen New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 7. Mean total snowfall for the 26 prior cases was 15.3" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 27% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 73% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. Just 12% of such winters wound up with 30" or more seasonal snowfall vs. 41% of winters in the historic record. The three most recent winters that saw less than 6" snow through February 7 were: 2001-02: 3.5" total seasonal snowfall 2006-07: 12.4" total seasonal snowfall 2007-08: 11.9" total seasonal snowfall

A rapidly intensifying storm tracked through the region today. Ahead of its trailing cold front, temperatures briefly rose to records in parts of the area. High temperatures included: Boston: 56° (tied daily record set in 1878 and tied in 1925) Bridgeport: 52° (tied daily record set in 1951) Danbury: 53° (old record: 52°, 1938 and 2005) Groton: 53° (old record: 50°, 2018) Islip: 54° (old record: 52°, 1990) Nantucket: 56° (old record: 54°, 1953) New Haven: 54° (old record: 51°, 1951) New York City-Central Park: 56°(old record: 54°, 1938) New York City-JFK: 54° (old record: 53°, 1990) New York City-LGA: 58° (old record: 52°, 1951, 1953, and 1955) Newark: 60° (old record: 55°, 1990) Providence: 57° (old record: 53°, 1925 and 1946) Westhampton: 55° (old record: 52°, 2018) White Plains: 52° (old record: 51°, 1990) As a result of today's warmth, February 2020 has become just the 11th year since regular record keeping began in 1869 during which the first week of February had a mean temperature of 40° or above in New York City. All prior 10 cases saw a warmer than normal February. The mean monthly temperature was 38.2°. Eight of those cases occurred during 1990 or later. As the storm passed, the barometric pressure fell below 980 mb in the region. Select minimum barometric readings included: Bedford, MA: 28.66" (970.5 mb) Boston: 28.67" (970.9 mb) Bridgeport: 28.73" (972.9 mb) Concord: 28.65" (970.2 mb) Hartford: 28.65" (970.2 mb) Manchester, NH: 28.64" (969.9 mb) New York City: 28.82" (976.0 mb) Newark: 28.80" (975.3 mb) Poughkeepsie: 28.73" (972.9 mb) Sanford, ME: 28.64" (969.9 mb) White Plains: 28.74" (973.2 mb) Worcester: 28.66" (970.5 mb) In the wake of the intense storm that passed through the region earlier today, a cooler than normal, but not severely cold, weekend lies ahead. Moderation will again occur next week. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic Cities through at least the first 10 days of February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around January 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.07°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.52°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was -0.91 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.272. During the second week of February, the AO could generally be at or above +2.000 following a peak of +4.000 or above. At the same time, the NAO will likely be positive and the PNA will likely be negative. Since 1950, there have been no 4" or greater snowstorms during February with such teleconnections in Philadelphia or New York City. Boston saw four, with the biggest being 10.2" on February 24-25, 1990. The biggest snowfalls in Philadelphia and New York City were 2.3" and 2.0" respectively. Near or just after mid-month, some of the guidance brings the MJO into Phase 6. The MJO, its amplitude, and the state of the teleconnections will determine the overall pattern during the start of the second half of February. During the February 10-29 period, when the MJO is in Phase 6 at low amplitude, the state of the PNA has the largest impact on temperatures in the Middle Atlantic region. For example, in New York City, the mean temperature for PNA+ cases during the 1981-2019 period was 34.1°. For PNA- cases, it was 41.7°. In contrast, when the MJO has an amplitude of 1.000 or above, the state of the AO is more important. During such cases, the mean temperature for AO+ cases was 40.9° while the mean temperature for AO- cases was 35.5°. The mean temperature for the entire February 10-29, 1981-2019 period was 36.5°. At present, it is more likely than not that the February 15-21 period will be warmer than normal as a whole with only transient cold shots. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 14. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the second week of February. On February 6, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.292 (RMM). The February 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.041.

The light rain has flipped to wind-driven large snowflakes in the Bronx.

At 2:30 pm, temperatures were continuing to tumble after having set new daily record high readings in such locations as Islip, New York City (all three stations), Newark, Westhampton, and White Plains. Some low pressure readings included: Bridgeport: 28.73" (972.9 mb) Danbury: 28.72" (972.6 mb) Hartford: 28.65" (970.2 mb) New York City: 28.82" (976.0 mb) Newark: 28.80" (975.3 mb) Poughkeepsie: 28.73" (972.9 mb) White Plains: 28.74" (973.2 mb)

At 11:25 am, the barometric pressure at Teterboro Airport was 28.78" (974.6 mb).

Near 11 am, the warm front was pushing northward through the New York City area. The temperature in Central Park had reached 50°. Temperatures in New York City ranged from 59° on Staten Island to 45° in the Bronx. In addition, some record highs were tied or broken in the region: Islip: 53° (old record: 52°, 1990) New York City-LGA: 52° (tied daily record set in 1951 and tied in 1953 and 1955) Westhampton: 53° (old record: 52°, 2018)