donsutherland1

My initial thinking right now is as follows: Greenville, NC: 3"-6" Norfolk: 2"-4" Raleigh: 2"-4" Wilmington: 1" or less For perspective, below is snowfall data for the above four cities:

The ECMWF has < 1” through 2/29 0z.

Early morning thoughts... 1. Occasionally, storms bring snow to the Southeast while avoiding the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions during strong AO+ regimes in February. February 1989, which saw two storms impact the lower Middle Atlantic and Southeastern areas during the final week of the month is one example. 2. At a time when the AO is poised to challenge or break daily records set in 1989, a snowfall is becoming increasingly likely for parts of North Carolina tomorrow into Friday. Parts of eastern North Carolina have the potential to see 1"-3" snow with a few locally higher amounts. This area of 1"-3" snow includes Greenville and perhaps Wilmington. The GFS, with its excessive snowfall amounts, is discounted on account of its noted cold bias. 3. The last time Greenville had a measurable snowfall was December 9, 2018 when 2.0" fell. The last time Greenville had measurable snow in February was February 25, 2015 when 1.6" was recorded. The February 24-25, 2015 storm dumped a total of 4.1" snow. 4. The last time Wilmington had a measurable snowfall was January 4, 2018 when 0.4" fell. The January 3-4, 2018 storm brought 3.8" snow. The last time Wilmington had measurable snow in February was February 24, 2015 when 0.3" was recorded. 5. No significant snowfalls appear likely through at least February 24 in such cities as Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC.

Another short period of cold is now poised to move into the region this week. Nevertheless, the second half of February will likely be warmer than normal overall. More cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March, but its magnitude and duration are uncertain at present. If some past cases with a strongly positive AO during the first half of March are representative, the cold would likely last around a week before warmth returns. Winter 2019-2020 became the 14th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 18. Mean total snowfall for the 13 prior cases was 9.3" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 54% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1920-21 with 18.6" seasonal snowfall. Winter 2019-2020 is also the 6th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 18. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 2.9" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1889-90 with 7.4" seasonal snowfall. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first 24 days of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. A snowfall could affect parts of North Carolina during the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Parts of eastern North Carolina have the potential to see 1"-3" snow with a few locally higher amounts. This area of 1"-3" snow includes Greenville and Wilmington. The NAM and GFS have much higher amounts, but no EPS members currently support such amounts. Thus, for now, they appear unlikely. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was -18.16 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.743. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.296 from 1959. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 26, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February. On February 17, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.883 (RMM). The February 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.836. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 62% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.5°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

Thanks for the kind words and commentary. Also, like you, I do not like the current pattern. It is greatly disappointing to see the absence of cold and snow and the growing likelihood that this will be among the least snowy winters (e.g., <10" at Central Park).

Morning thoughts... 1. Record warmth again prevails in parts of Europe. New records are most numerous in Finland and Russia. 2. Parts of North Carolina, especially eastern North Carolina, remain in line for accumulating snow in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Eastern North Carolina will likely see the highest amounts with an area of 1"-3" locally higher amounts according a model blend. About one-third of EPS members show 1" or more for Wilmington. 3. The implied probability of less than 10" seasonal snowfall in New York City continues to increase based on historic data for cases where New York City had received less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 18. 4. February 2020 remains on track to finish among the 10 warmest such months in numerous locations in the Middle Atlantic region even as colder air could arrive near the end of the month.

On this I disagree. The scientific evidence is overwhelming. The papers are available. The skeptics have no credible alternative to explain ongoing warming. Any serious money manager with a long-term horizon would already be working to mitigate risks and pursue opportunities in areas exposed to climate change based on the science. They would not be giving consideration to things that, quite frankly, have not much more scientific credibility than astrology.

It should be noted that 1960 was experiencing strong blocking at this time and that blocking would continue into March at which time the blizzard took place. In contrast, the AO is at extreme positive values and may approach or reach the record set earlier this month in coming days. Unlike in 1960, the cold is far less expansive in the Northern Hemisphere. Even if a mechanism to bring it into the CONUS and then hold it there were available, which seems unlikely, one would not be dealing with the kind of widespread cold that defined March 1960 in the CONUS. Here's how things progressed in 1960: None of the guidance shows cold of the expanse and magnitude shown during the second half of February, much less over a two week period. At this point, especially with the current pattern and forecast ensembles, calls for extreme cold on a scale of March 1960 should be viewed with a great deal of skepticism. Extremes, by definition, are low probability events. When no clear variables for producing them are currently visible or available in the guidance, their absence should raise significant "red flags."

Unseasonably mild air continues to cover the region. Daily high temperatures included: Baltimore: 55°; Boston: 49°; Harrisburg: 53°; Islip: 50°; New York City: 51°; Newark: 53°; Philadelphia: 52°; and, Washington, DC: 56°. Another short period of cold is likely later this week. Nevertheless, the second half of February will likely be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March, but its magnitude and duration are uncertain at present. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first 24 days of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. A snowfall could affect parts of North Carolina later in the week. Parts of eastern North Carolina have the potential to see 1"-3" snow with a few locally higher amounts. Wilmington is currently in line for close an inch using a multi model blend. Earlier today, in part due to the powerful north Atlantic storm that has contributed to the very strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), widespread record warmth prevailed in Europe. Daily records included: Cervia, Italy: 64°; Innsbruck: 59°; Norrkoping, Sweden: 46°; Osijek, Croatia: 63°; Papa, Hungary: 61°; Roenne, Denmark: 46°; St. Petersburg: 45°; Stockholm: 46°; Vilnius: 50°; and, Warsaw: 59°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around February 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.38°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm ENSO conditions. The SOI was -18.06 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.743. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.000 from 1959. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 25, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February. On February 16, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.840 (RMM). The February 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.780. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 64% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.5°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

Another climate scientist who is no longer giving perceived legitimacy to climate change deniers via debates: https://mobile.twitter.com/ClimateHuman/status/1228197739760013317

Only when you get really close.

The landscape at the New York Botanical Garden suggests that spring is rapidly gaining a foothold on account of the almost unrelenting mildness of winter 2019-2020, including today’s 50° day. Crocuses are now blooming in abundance. Japanese Apricot is breaking into blossom. Witch Hazel is in full bloom.

Bloomberg.com reported that the U.K. will be making a significant investment to upgrade its weather and climate computer resources. https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-02-17/u-k-to-spend-1-6-billion-on-world-s-best-climate-supercomputer

As has happened on a regular basis during January and the first half of February, the cold that covered the Northeast during Friday and yesterday was short-lived. Milder air has again overspread the region. Much of the Middle Atlantic region saw high temperatures top out in the lower and middle 40s. A few readings at or above 50° occurred, as well. Another short period of cold is likely later this week. Nevertheless, the second half of February will likely be warmer than normal overall. Cooler air could arrive by the end of February or the beginning of March, but its magnitude and duration are uncertain at present. Winter 2019-2020 is the 7th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 16. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 3.8" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1931-32 with 8.0" seasonal snowfall. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first 24 days of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. Earlier today, in part due to the powerful north Atlantic storm that has contributed to the very strongly positive Arctic Oscillation (AO), widespread record warmth prevailed in Europe. Daily records included: Amsterdam: 59°; Antwerp: 63°; Cherbourg, France: 57°; Deelen, Netherlands: 63°; Dusseldorf: 64°; Eindhoven, Netherlands: 64°; Gilze-Rijen, Netherlands: 63°; Hamburg: 63° (tied monthly record); Kleine Brogel, Belgium: 64°; Koksijde, Belgium: 59°; Luxembourg: 61°; Paris: 64°; Rotterdam: 59°; Satenas, Sweden: 50°; Strasbourg, France: 68°; Volkel, Netherlands: 64°; Wiesbaden, Germany: 61°; and, Wunstorf, Germany: 64° (tied monthly record). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was -18.20 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.169. That easily exceed the previous daily record of +3.114 from 1959. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 24, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February. On February 15, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.777 (RMM). The February 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.500. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 61% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. The mean monthly temperature will likely finish near 39.5°. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region.

With snowfall prospects likely remaining bleak through much of the second half of February, at look at March concerning the Arctic Oscillation and PNA is useful. During March, the wave lengths are continuing to shorten, so the diversity of 500 mb patterns with (and also without) snow tends to increase. Below is data for March 1981-2019 for Philadelphia: AO-/PNA-: Mean Temperature: 43.0 degrees % Days with Measurable Snow: 4.3% % Days with 1" or More Snow: 2.2% AO-/PNA+: Mean Temperature: 42.1 degrees % Days with Measurable Snow: 7.0% % Days with 1" or More Snow: 2.8% AO+/PNA-: Mean Temperature: 43.3 degrees % Days with Measurable Snow: 10.0% % Days with 1" or More Snow: 5.0% AO+/PNA+: Mean Temperature: 45.1 degrees % Days with Measurable Snow: 3.6% % Days with 1" or More Snow: 1.6% March 1981-2019 Period: Mean Temperature: 43.4 degrees % Days with Measurable Snow: 6.3% % Days with 1" or More Snow: 2.9% Biggest Snowstorm (March 1950-2019): AO-/PNA-: 11.4", March 1958 AO-/PNA+: 8.8", March 1981 AO+/PNA-: 12.0", March 1993 AO+/PNA+: 6.0", March 2017 (only 4" or greater snowstorm with this combination) Of course, more is involved than the state of the teleconnections. But the teleconnections can provide some starting insight.

This morning was the coldest morning of winter 2019-2020. Both New York City and Philadelphia had minimum temperatures of 14°. Readings outside those cities were even colder. Low temperatures outside New York City and Philadelphia included: Allentown: 10°; Danbury: 6°; Poughkeepsie: 6°; Scranton: 5°; and, White Plains: 9°. Binghamton had a low temperature of -2°. In addition, New York City's high temperature of 30° was that city's lowest high temperature since December 19, 2019 when the high temperature was just 25°. Philadelphia recorded only its second high temperature of 32° or below this winter. Today's 32° high temperature was Philadelphia's lowest maximum temperature since December 19 when the high temperature was 29°. However, as has been the case since the second half of December, the cold will now quickly depart. Moreover, other than transient cold shots, one of which could during the second half of next week, the second half of February will likely be warmer than normal overall. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first three weeks of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was -21.95 today. The last time the SOI fell to -20.00 or below was December 26, 2019 when the SOI was -28.39. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.700. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 23, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February. On February 14, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.502 (RMM). The February 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.235. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 55% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region.

Two photos from this afternoon (temperature 29°). Ice left over from the receding tide and bubbles in a frozen pool of water.

Not if the MVP is negative. Hopefully, it won’t be negative.

This morning, the temperature fell to 14° in Philadelphia. That was the coldest temperature this winter and the coldest since February 2, 2019 when the temperature fell to 11°. So far, Philadelphia has had no days in January or February during which the high temperature reached no higher than 32°. The only time January and February saw no such days was in 1932. December 1931 also had no such days. However, March 1932 had 4 days during which the high temperature reached no higher than 32°.

I was referring to today. That was yesterday’s 12z run. Both today’s 0z and 12z runs dropped the storm.

While the GFS is largely on its own with this idea, it should be noted that during winter 1972-73, Columbia, SC picked up 16.0" snow on February 9-10. That winter, just 2.8" snow fell in New York City and only a trace was recorded in Philadelphia.

On GISS, January 2020 was the warmest January on record globally. The temperature anomaly was +1.18°C, which was narrowly above the previous record of +1.17°C from 2016.

Temperatures were falling through the 20s this evening in the northern Middle Atlantic region. The minimum temperature tomorrow morning could fall into the teens in New York City and Philadelphia. Readings in the lower teens and perhaps single digits are likely outside both cities. But then winter's latest effort to take hold will fail again. Warmer air will quickly return. It is likely that the second half of February will be warmer than normal overall. During that time, cold shots will likely be of a short duration. Consistent with the pattern and supported by most of the guidance, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities through at least the first three weeks of February. There is a greater but still fairly low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. Winter 2019-2020 became the 19th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through February 14. Mean total snowfall for the 18 prior cases was 12.5" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 39% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 89% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. Just 11% of such winters wound up with 30" or more seasonal snowfall vs. 41% of winters in the historic record. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around February 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C. The remainder of winter 2019-2020 will likely feature neutral-warm to weak El Niño conditions. The SOI was -17.05 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.686. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through February 22, but the upper stratosphere above 3 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will remain relatively suppressed. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the third week of February. On February 13, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.234 (RMM). The February 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.122. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February and an implied 55% probability that February 2020 will be among the 10 warmest such months on record. Finally, a sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-12 AO average is +2.926. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region.

A very warm winter has had a higher frequency of warm summers in Philadelphia. Based on data from winters 1873-74 to the 2018-19, the historic summer average temperature was 74.9°. Warm summers were as follows: Above the historic mean: 45% 1° or more above the historic mean: 25% 2° or more above the historic mean: 12% In the 19 cases where the December-February mean temperature was 38.0° or above (2019-20 was averaging 39.6° through 2/13), the mean summer temperature was 76.1°. Warm summers were as follows: Above the historic mean: 79% (1.8X the historic frequency) 1° or more above the historic mean: 53% (2.1X the historic frequency) 2° or more above the historic mean: 32% (2.6X the historic mean and more frequent than the historic figure for 1° or more above the historic mean) All said, if the above data is representative, summer 2020 will likely be warmer and possibly much warmer than normal. The evolution of ENSO will have an important impact.

Winter 2019-2020 is just the 7th winter on record that has seen Philadelphia receive less than 2" seasonal snowfall through February 14. Mean total snowfall for the 6 prior cases was 3.8" vs. the historic mean figure of 22.6". In addition, 100% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 16% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1931-32 with 8.0" seasonal snowfall. Below is a chart that illustrates mean and +/- 3 sigma cumulative snowfall amounts based on the 0.3" that has fallen to date for those six cases. The 3 sigma upper limit based on those 6 cases is 11.3". Statistically, there would be a 1-in-741 chance that this value would be reached or exceeded. *-The - sigma value has been constrained to that it cannot fall below the 0.3" seasonal snowfall to date. That value would imply no measurable snowfall for the remainder of winter 2019-2020.