donsutherland1

During the 1983 blizzard, Boston, New York City, and Washington, DC received less than 20" snow. During PD2, both NYC and Washington, DC received under 20" snow.

Earlier today, parts of New England saw some snowfall. Snowfall amounts included: Boston: Trace; Burlington: Trace; Providence: Trace; and, Worcester: 0.3" Nevertheless, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. Another short push of cold air is likely late this week or the beginning of the weekend. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -14.98 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.878. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 16, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.309 (RMM). The March 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.423. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 60% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 47.5°, which would rank as the 8th warmest March on record.

Today saw temperatures run somewhat below normal across the region. However, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. Another short push of cold air is likely late this week or the beginning of the weekend. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -3.54 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.705. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 15, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.422 (RMM). The March 14-adjusted amplitude was 0.943. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 62% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 47.5°, which would rank as the 8th warmest March on record.

The Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions are continuing to experience drier than normal conditions. Such conditions are likely to persist through the remainder of March. Year-to-date precipitation amounts include: Allentown: 6.33" (0.81" below normal); Baltimore: 6.78" (0.80" below normal); Boston: 5.04" (3.41" below normal); Islip: 6.71" (2.13" below normal); New York City: 5.39" (3.16" below normal); Newark: 5.17" (3.00" below normal); Philadelphia: 5.98" (1.26" below normal); Poughkeepsie: 3.95" (3.32" below normal); Providence: 5.21" (4.01" below normal); and, Washington, DC: 6.51" (0.33" below normal). Despite the arrival of modestly cooler air for this weekend, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. The warmth should persist until March 20-22 when another short push of cold air occurs. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +4.07 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.032. There remain hints that a "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop in the extended range. More guidance will be needed to gain confidence in such an event. On March 14, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.941 (RMM). The March 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.130. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 92% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

They almost certainly won’t. A sort of sunk cost fallacy appears to be driving things. The issues may eventually be resolved, but by then the other global models will have been improved even more and the loss of confidence in the GFS will be greater than might otherwise have been the case. The legacy product exists. Transitioning the legacy model to 4D-Var initialization would take about two years (length of time the ECMWF took in making the transition) would probably be a far more constructive course.

So far. Things could change, especially if things evolve toward the rumored La Niña (IMO, it’s too soon to reach that conclusion) vs. the El Niño that evolved in 2002.

Despite the arrival of modestly cooler air for this weekend, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. The warmth should persist until March 20-22 when another short push of cold air occurs. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +0.53 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.678. There remain emerging hints that a "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop in the extended range. More guidance will be needed to gain confidence in such an event. On March 13, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.129 (RMM). The March 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.025. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

On February 29 and March 4, the GFS showed sizable to historic snowfalls for the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions for the March 11-13 timeframe. That period ended with the mercury topping out at 70° in New York City. No snow was recorded in the Middle Atlantic or southern New England regions. In sum, the GFS scenarios were likely a product of the significant cold bias that has plagued that model's extended range forecasts, a bias that has been particularly notable since the FV3 core was introduced, delayed, and then implemented.

Ahead of a push of modestly cooler air, temperatures soared to much above normal levels in much of the Middle Atlantic region. High temperatures included: Baltimore: 75°; Islip: 65°; New York City: 70°; Newark: 72°; Philadelphia: 74°; Richmond: 80°; and, Washington, DC: 77°. Despite the arrival of modestly cooler air for this weekend, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. The warmth should persist until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -0.53 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.722. There remain emerging hints that a "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop in the extended range. More guidance will be needed to gain confidence in such an event. On March 12, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.032 (RMM). The March 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.190. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

A system will bring some rain to the region tonight into tomorrow. Afterward readings will surge into the 60s before modestly cooler air overspreads the region. An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. The warmth should persist until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +2.11 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.580. That surpassed the previous daily record of +3.111, which was set in 1994. There remain emerging hints that a "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop in the extended range. More guidance will be needed to gain confidence in such an event. On March 11, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.191 (RMM). The March 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.323. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. The probability that March 2020 will be among the 10 warmest March cases has increased further.

An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. The warmth should persist until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +1.00 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.006. The previous daily record was +3.296, which was set in 1977. There are now some emerging hints that a "final warming" seasonal event could begin to develop in the extended range. More guidance will be needed to gain confidence in such an event. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through March 19. On March 10, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.327 (RMM). The March 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.499. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

Expecting that the forecast EPO- will lead to sustained cold will likely lead to more disappointment in a disappointing winter/opening to spring. Given the impact the sustained strongly positive AO has had on the atmosphere, one will likely see a continued tendency for ridging and above normal temperatures in the East during the March 11-25 period overall despite the forecast development of a negative or strongly negative EPO. One saw such circumstances during the same period in 1990 when the EPO averaged -1.000 or below following the extreme AO+ for February. Overall, March remains on course to be much warmer than normal.

Temperatures again soared into the 60s across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions today. An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures is underway. The warmth should continue until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Winter 2019-2020 became the 9th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through March 10. Mean total snowfall for the 10 prior cases was 6.3" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". In addition, 88% of such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. 100% of such winters wound up with less than 20" seasonal snowfall vs. 31% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1991-92 with 12.6" seasonal snowfall. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -7.90 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.597. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 17, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March. On March 9, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.498 (RMM). The March 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.904. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

I’m sorry to hear this.

Temperatures soared to much above normal levels today. High temperatures included: Albany: 74°; Boston: 72°; Bridgeport: 62° (old record: 61°, 2017); Hartford: 74°; Islip: 63°; New York City: 71°; Newark: 73°; Philadelphia: 71°; and, Providence: 72° (old record: 70°, 2016). An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures is underway. The warmth should continue until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 4. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -3.16 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.830. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 17, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March. On March 8, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.894 (RMM). The March 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.143. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

Under bright sunshine, temperatures surged into the 50s across the region. High temperatures included: Albany: 59°; Allentown: 59°; Bridgeport: 52°; Islip: 53°; New York City: 59°; Newark: 60°; and, Philadelphia: 59°. Tomorrow will be even more springlike as thermometers top out in the upper 60s and perhaps even lower 70s in some places. Overall, an extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures now lies ahead. The warmth should continue until at least the closing 7-10 days of March. During this time, any intrusions of cold air should be brief and limited in magnitude. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -1.29 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.453. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 16, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March. On March 7, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.117 (RMM). The March 6-adjusted amplitude was 2.025. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. The likelihood that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases has continued to increase.

Today was a springlike day. The temperature topped out in the upper 50s under brilliant sunshine and a light breeze. The day was ideal for outdoor activities and even early-season boating.

The powerful offshore storm that brought 1"-3" snow to Cape Cod and Nantucket, along with winds that gusted past 50 mph continues to move away from the region. Starting tomorrow, much warmer air will begin streaming into the region. Afterward, an extended period of warmer to occasionally much warmer than normal conditions is likely. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -5.07 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.890. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 15, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through mid-March. On March 6, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.017 (RMM). The March 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.797. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

A storm developing offshore will bring a cold rain to the region tonight. Interior areas and parts of eastern New England could experience snow with perhaps a light accumulation. The exceptions are portions of Cape Cod and Nantucket where a 2"-4" snowfall is likely. In the wake of the storm, tomorrow will be blustery. However, much warmer air will return starting Sunday. Afterward, there is strong support on the guidance for an extended period of warmer than normal conditions. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -1.34 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.239. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 14, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS through the second week of March. On March 5, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.791 (RMM). The March 4-adjusted amplitude was 1.796. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. The ECMWF monthly and seasonal guidance initialized on March 1 shows a much warmer than normal March. It also shows a warmer to much warmer than normal spring. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.

January 1996: Snowfall in Boston was 18.2" January 2016: Snowfall in Boston was 6.1"

The monthly forecast also has a much warmer than normal March across much of the nation.

Cooler air is now poised to return for a short time starting tomorrow. As that happens, a storm will likely develop and deepen well offshore with the potential to bring some light snow or snow showers to the Northeast, especially eastern New England where a light measurable snowfall remains possible. The New York City Metro area will likely see a cold rain. Afterward, there is strong support on the guidance for an extended period of warmer than normal conditions. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +7.27 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.656. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 13, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the latter part of the second week of March. On March 4, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.793 (RMM). The March 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.887. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. The probability that New York City will experience among the 10 warmest March cases on record has increased in recent days.

Perhaps somewhat related: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/05/clickbait-weather-forecasts-social-media/?itid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_cwg-clickbait-410pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans From the story: On Wednesday, for example, a number of Facebook pages shared a forecast from the American GFS model showing heavy snow from Washington to Boston next Thursday, eight days into the future, when such predictions are not reliable. Other, more accurate models showed no such snow threat. But with that shaky forecast propagating through social media, several meteorologists felt compelled to confront it. “I will not buy into the hype. I will not post a phantom map,” posted meteorologist Justin Berk, who provides forecasts for Maryland on Facebook. Extreme ideas or solutions should be treated as unlikely to occur unless there is strong evidence for them. That applies to hype about stratospheric warming events, extreme GFS snowfall forecasts, and extreme analogs. The pushback from the meteorological community is welcome.

LGA also set a record high minimum temperature of 49 on March 3.

Today saw readings again reach much above normal levels. However, cooler air could return for a short time late in the week. As that happens, a storm could develop and deepen along the cold front well offshore with the potential to bring a little snow to parts of the Northeast, especially eastern New England where a light measurable snowfall is possible. Afterward, there is strong support on the guidance for an extended period of warmer than normal conditions. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. There is a greater but still low probability for Boston to see such a snowstorm. As a result, New York City will likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around February 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was +7.99 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.451. No significant stratospheric warming is likely through March 12, but the upper stratosphere above 5 mb will likely be warm. Wave 2 activity will likely be low. Overall, most of the stratosphere is forecast to remain cold on the EPS into the middle of the second week of March. On March 3, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.884 (RMM). The March 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.781. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. The most recent C3S multi-system blend favors a somewhat warmer than normal spring in the region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March.