donsutherland1

Morning thoughts... 1. The system responsible for the rain yesterday and overnight will be moving well north of the region today. The area of steadiest rain is now moving eastward across parts of upstate New York, Ontario, Quebec, and parts of northern New England. 2. Select rainfall amounts through 8 am include: Allentown: 0.77"; Boston: 0.25"; Bridgeport: 0.28"; Islip: 0.49"; New York City: 0.47"; Newark: 0.23"; Philadelphia: 1.14"; and, Providence: 0.74" 3. More record heat is likely in the Southeast. Following its March record high temperature of 94° yesterday, Jacksonville could reach 90° for a record-breaking 5th time in March later today. 4. On March 28, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) was 13,559,443 square kilometers. That was the lowest figure on record for March 28. The old record was 13,572,036 square kilometers, which was set in 2017.

I agree. The sooner this pandemic is stifled, preferably ended, the better.

Temperatures held mainly in the 40s this afternoon. Nevertheless, March remains on track to end with generally warmer than normal temperatures. The first week of April will likely be cooler than normal, as the NAO heads toward or even below -1.000. During the April 1-7, 1981-2019 period, the mean temperature for New York City was 49.3° and for Philadelphia it was 50.5°. During cases when the NAO was -0.75 or below, the respective mean temperatures for New York City and Philadelphia were 47.9° and 49.4°. The core of the cold will likely be focused on the central United States. The cold likely won't be sufficient to produce a freeze in New York City. In parts of the southeastern United States, temperatures reached record high levels earlier today. Daily records included: Athens, GA: 88° (old record: 85°, 1921 and 2007); Beckley, WV: 85° (old record: 81°, 1989); Charleston, WV: 87° (tied record set in 1945); Crestview, FL: 87° (old record: 2007, 2009, and 2017); Jacksonville: 94° (old record: 89°, 1994 and 2009) ***New March Record***; New Bern, NC: 91° (old record: 85°, 1939); New Orleans: 88° (old record: 84°, 1972); Orlando: 93° (old record: 92°, 1923 and 1994); Pensacola: 84° (old record: 83°, 2009); Savannah: 90° (old record: 89°, 1907); and, Tampa: 88° (tied record set in 1989) New Orleans is on track to record a monthly average temperature near 72.7°. That would smash the March record of 70.7°, which was set in 2012. It is likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. New York City's last measurable snowfall this winter was January 18. That would mark the earliest such occurrence of the last measurable snowfall. The existing record is January 19, 2002. New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). It is also possible that New York City has seen its last freeze of the winter, which occurred on March 1. That would be the second earliest such occurrence. The record is February 28, 1942. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -15.61 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.043. On March 27, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.789 (RMM). The March 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.710. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March and that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.3°, which would rank as the 6th warmest March on record. Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be warmer than normal in the East.

I think such a summer is a real possibility.

Morning thoughts... 1. The region is in line for a moderate rainstorm from late morning into mid-day tomorrow. Cities such as Bridgeport, Islip, New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia should pick up 0.50" - 1.00" rain. Boston will likely see 0.25"-0.75". 2. Following the storm, temperatures will rebound. 3. The first week of April looks to be cooler than normal, but not exceptionally cool.

Temperatures soared into the 60s across the region today. Overall, March remains on track to end with generally warmer than normal temperatures. The first week of April will likely be cooler than normal. However, the core of the cold will likely be focused on the central United States and the cold likely won't be sufficient to produce a freeze in New York City. In parts of the southeastern United States, temperatures reached record high levels earlier today. Daily records included: Asheville, NC: 85° (old record: 80°, 1907); Athens, GA: 88° (old record: 87°, 1921); Charleston, SC: 87° (old record: 85°, 1949); Columbia, SC: 88° (tied record set in 1994); Jacksonville: 90° (old record: 89°, 1929 and 1991); New Orleans: 87° (old record: 85°, 2011); Savannah: 87° (old record: 86°, 1994 and 2011); and, Wilmington, NC: 87° (old record: 85°, 2007) Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As New York City's last measurable snowfall this winter was January 18, that would mark the earliest such occurrence of the last measurable snowfall. The existing record is January 19, 2002. As a result, New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through April. The SOI was -18.00 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.759. Recent days had seen the AO surpass records set in 1976 and 1986, both of which featured warmer than normal April temperatures the eastern United States. Based on the latest guidance, it is possible that New York City has seen its last freeze of the winter, which occurred on March 1. That would be the second earliest such occurrence. The record is February 28, 1942. On March 26, the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.712 (RMM). The March 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.905. During the 1981-2019 period, there were two distinct clusters of April outcomes following the MJO's being in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 3 or more consecutive days during the March 20-31 period as has been the case this year. One cluster (1981, 2002, and 2010) featured warmth in the East. The other cluster (1992 and 1996) featured a cool anomaly in the East and a warm anomaly in the West. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 98% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.3°, which would rank as the 6th warmest March on record. Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be warmer than normal in the East.

Following the clouds and light rain that held down yesterday's temperatures, today's sunshine sent the mercury rising well into the 50s and even some 60s across the region. Overall, the month remains on course to finish on a generally warmer than normal note. In the southern U.S., numerous daily record high temperatures were set today. Records included: Little Rock: 88° (old record: 85°, 1907); New Orleans: 88° (old record: 84°, 2011); Oklahoma City: 92° (old record: 85°, 1918, 1956, and 1972); Pensacola: 84° (old record: 83°, 2012); Shreveport: 89° (old record: 88°, 2011); and, Tulsa: 94° (old record: 87°, 1918). Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As New York City's last measurable snowfall this winter was January 18, that would mark the earliest such occurrence of the last measurable snowfall. The existing record is January 19, 2002. As a result, New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through April. The SOI was -10.34 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.505. Recent days have seen the AO surpass records set in 1976 and 1986, both of which featured warmer than normal April temperatures the eastern United States. Based on the latest guidance, it is possible that New York City has seen its last freeze of the winter, which occurred on March 1. That would be the second earliest such occurrence. The record is February 28, 1942. On March 25, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.902 (RMM). The March 24-adjusted amplitude was 2.048. During the 1981-2019 period, there were two distinct clusters of April outcomes following the MJO's being in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for 3 or more consecutive days during the March 20-31 period as has been the case this year. One cluster (1981, 2002, and 2010) featured warmth in the East. The other cluster (1992 and 1996) featured a cool anomaly in the East and a warm anomaly in the West. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 94% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.2°, which would rank as the 6th warmest March on record. Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be warmer than normal in the East.

Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As New York City's last measurable snowfall this winter was January 18, that would mark the earliest such occurrence of the last measurable snowfall. The existing record is January 19, 2002. As a result, New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through April. The SOI was -5.17 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.531. That was above the daily record value of +3.010 from 1976. Recent days have seen the AO surpass records set in 1976 and 1986, both of which featured warmer than normal April temperatures the eastern United States. Based on the latest guidance, it is possible that New York City has seen its last freeze of the winter, which occurred on March 1. That would be the second earliest such occurrence. The record is February 28, 1942. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event is underway. This will be the last note concerning the stratosphere until autumn, as the seasonal warming has little connection to Arctic blocking or its absence. On March 24, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 2.041 (RMM). The March 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.717. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 90% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record. Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be warmer than normal in the East.

Yes. I believe you’re right.

The storm that brought record daily snowfall for March 23 in parts of central New York State and central New England and earlier today in parts of Maine departed. In its wake, today saw temperatures rebound across the region. Temperatures topped out mainly in the middle and upper 50s. Tomorrow will see temperatures hold in the upper 40s to lower 50s as another system brings some rain to the region. Daily snowfall records for yesterday included: Albany: 6.1" (old record: 2.7", 2005); Hartford: 3.4" (old record: 2.2", 2005); and, Worcester: 4.2" (old record: 4.1", 1992) Daily snowfall records for today included: Bangor: 3.4" (old record: 3.1", 1991) Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through April. The SOI was -9.67 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.051. That easily surpassed the daily record of +3.176, which was set in 1986. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event is in its early stages of development. On March 23, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.715 (RMM). The March 22-adjusted amplitude was 1.685. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 77% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record. Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. As a result, April will likely be warmer than normal in the East.

Coastal regions saw rain occasionally mixed with snow. Across an area running from northeastern Pennsylvania, central New York State, and central New England, accumulating snow occurred. Snowfall will continue to accumulate in that area tonight. Through early this evening, snowfall amounts included: Albany: 0.2"; Binghamton: 2.4"; Boston: Trace; Bridgeport: Trace; Hartford: 0.9"; Islip: Trace; New York City: Trace; Newark: Trace; Providence: Trace; and, Worcester: 2.0" Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is increasingly likely that Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC have seen their last measurable snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City is all but certain to finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.8°C for the week centered around March 18. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through April. The SOI was not available today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.288. That was above the daily record of +4.253, which was set in 1986. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event will likely begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 22, the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.686 (RMM). The March 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.678. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 80% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record. Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. Such an outcome would favor a warmer than normal April in much of the East. The CFSv2 has been shifting in that direction in recent days.

Some light snow is falling in southern Westchester County. There is no accumulation.

Cooler air remains in place. Late tomorrow into early Tuesday, a storm will track eastward. As a result, parts of the region, especially an area running from central Pennsylvania across northwestern New Jersey, across central New York State into southern New England, will likely receive a snowfall. Parts of that area will likely pick up 3"-6" snow with some locally higher amounts. Final snowfall estimates: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 2"-4" Boston: 1" or less Poughkeepsie: 2" or less Scranton: 2" or less Worcester: 3"-6" Little or no snow is likely in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -6.51 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.416. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event will likely begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 21, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.680 (RMM). The March 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.725. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 80% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.2°, which would rank as the 6th warmest March on record. Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. Such an outcome would favor a warmer than normal April in much of the East. The CFSv2 has been shifting in that direction in recent days.

It's looking like snowfall amounts in the vicinity of I-84 will likely need to be trimmed.

Follow-up on a post pointing out the perilous risk of embracing extremes from the very long-range: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/52964-mid-to-long-range-threats/?do=findComment&comment=5466455 Latest CFSv2 forecasts (the model is just moving toward its skillful range), but none of the recent solutions was anything near the extreme idea addressed previously.

Morning thoughts... The NAM (area of excessive snowfall) and GFS (least snowfall) continue to be outliers with a late-season winter system. The 6z NAM has shifted the area of heaviest snow northward relative to the 0z run. New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia will likely see little or no snow. An area running from northeastern Pennsylvania across central New York State into central New England should pick up 3"-6" snow with some locally higher amounts. My thinking for select sites is as follows: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 3"-6" Boston: 1" or less Poughkeepsie: 1"-3" Scranton: 1"-3" Worcester: 3"-6"

it was, at 12z. The 18z has backed down but remains an outlier.

Cooler air has moved back into the region. In coming days, a storm will come eastward. As a result, parts of the region, especially an area running from central Pennsylvania across northwestern New Jersey, across central New York State into southern New England, will likely receive a snowfall early next week. Parts of that highlighted area have the highest probability of picking up a 3"-6" snowfall with some locally higher amounts, but there remains some uncertainty. The 18z NAM and 18z GFS were high and low outliers. Both models were largely discounted. Likely snowfall estimates include: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 3"-6" Boston: 1" or less Poughkeepsie: 1"-3" Scranton: 1"-3" Worcester: 3"-6" Little or no snow is likely in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Winter 2019-2020 is the 8th winter on record that saw New York City receive less than 6" seasonal snowfall through March 21. Mean total snowfall for the 10 prior cases was 5.4" vs. the historic mean figure of 28.8". All such winters wound up with less than 10" seasonal snowfall vs. 6% of winters in the historic record. The snowiest case from those prior winters was 1900-01 with 9.1" seasonal snowfall. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -7.32 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.718. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event will likely begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 20, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.729 (RMM). The March 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.709. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 78% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.2°, which would rank as the 6th warmest March on record. Finally, in most cases following strong AO+ February and March periods, ridging is present in the East during April. Such an outcome would favor a warmer than normal April in much of the East. The CFSv2 has been shifting in that direction in recent days.

Did he explain why the oceans have warmed? Also, the unfolding March outcome was a function of 2 major variables: 1. Far more limited supply of cold (than 1960) 2. Absence of a mechanism to drive and then lock the cold into the CONUS.

Temperatures soared to their highest levels since early October. Highs included: New York City: 77° (highest since 79°, 10/7/2019); Newark: 80° (highest since 80°, 10/7/2019); and, Philadelphia: 79° (highest since 82°, 10/7/2019). In the wake of today's unseasonable warmth, a short push of cold air is likely. As a storm comes eastward late in the weekend, there is a chance that parts of the region, especially an area running from central Pennsylvania across northwestern New Jersey, across central New York State into southern New England, could see snow early next week. Parts of this highlighted area have the highest probability of picking up a 3"-6" snowfall, but there remains significant uncertainty. Initial snowfall estimates include: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 2"-4" Boston: 1" or less Poughkeepsie: 1"-3" Scranton: 1"-3" Worcester: 3"-6" Little or no snow is likely in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -8.23 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.592. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event will likely begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 19, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.714 (RMM). The March 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.372. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 72% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record.

An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. Another short push of cold air is likely during the beginning of the weekend. Ahead of this push, readings could soar into the 70s as far north as southern New England. There is a chance that parts of the region, especially an area running from central Pennsylvania across northwestern New Jersey into southern New England, could see snow early next week. This area has the highest probability of picking up a 3"-6" snowfall, but there remains significant uncertainty. A light accumulation might even be possible in the Newark-New York City area. Afterward, the closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -14.60 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.154. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 18, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.376 (RMM). The March 17-adjusted amplitude was 0.938. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 70% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record.

An extended period of generally above to much above normal temperatures continues. Another short push of cold air is likely during the beginning of the weekend. Ahead of this push, readings could soar into the 70s as far north as southern New England. The closing days of the month will likely be warmer than normal. Based on the historic data, no significant snowfalls (6" or more) are likely in the major Middle Atlantic cities (Baltimore, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC) and Boston through the remainder of the 2019-2020 snow season. It is is possible that at least some of those cities have seen their last snowfall of winter 2019-2020. As a result, New York City will very likely finish winter 2019-2020 with less than 10" snow for the first time since winter 2011-2012 and for only the 10th time on record. Snowfall records go back to winter 1868-1869 (when 25.5" fell from January-March 1869). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around March 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through March. The SOI was -21.16 today. That is the lowest SOI value since February 15 when the SOI was -21.95. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +2.915. A "final warming" stratospheric seasonal event could begin to develop during the last week of March. On March 17, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.937 (RMM). The March 16-adjusted amplitude was 0.310. A sizable majority (>80%) of years during which the AO has been, on average, strongly positive during the first 15 days of February were followed by a warmer than normal March. The preliminary February 1-15 AO average was +2.758. Only 1989 (+3.336) and 1990 (+2.948) had higher AO averages during this period. Recent rapid warming in ENSO Region 1+2 has also typically preceded a warmer than normal March and spring in the Middle Atlantic region. A warmer than normal March and spring remain the base case. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 98% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. There is an implied 71% probability that March 2020 will rank among the 10 warmest March cases on record. March will likely finish with a monthly mean temperature near 48.0°, which would rank as the 7th warmest March on record.

I believe that was 1867-68.

The March 1-17 mean temperature in New York City was 48.2°. The GFS, which was 1.4° cooler than the model consensus was farthest away (largest cool bias).

IMO, it's among the 5 worst (low snowfall and warmth).