donsutherland1

Yes. I saw this morning’s press conference. I am going through it. There’s also a great interactive feature. P.S. Arctic sea ice extent resumed its decline.

The minimum has not been reached. The trend is down even with some fluctuations.

Much of the region slogged through clouds and showers today with temperatures rising only into the upper 70s and lower 80s. South of the region, temperatures rose into the 90s as close by as Harrisburg and Washington, DC. Remaining showers will exit the region overnight setting the stage for a very warm week. A heat wave is likely in parts of the region, especially from Washington, DC to Philadelphia. Above normal temperatures could persist toward mid-month. This week will see the development of a much above normal temperature regime in the Pacific Northwest. Portland will likely experience its second extreme heat event of the year. That would make 2021 the first year on record with two such events. Portland could also experience 2 or more 100° high temperatures, allowing 2021 to tie or break the all-time record for most such days. There is an increasing possibility that Seattle could also experience its second extreme heat event of the year. In some of the long-range guidance that heat could later be followed by another round of heat in the Northern Plains a week or so later. If so, one will see a similar sequence of events as occurred from late June to mid-July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was -2.25 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.582 today. On August 6 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.744 (RMM). The August 5-adjusted amplitude was 0.642 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.1° (0.1° above normal).

Too much confluence. Hopefully, that won't be a winter theme.

Long Island should get some rain. Very little will fall from NYC north and west.

500 mb ridge centered over Quebec.

Most of the rain was south of here. 2”-4” fell in some parts of the Mount Holly forecast area.

Morning thoughts… Light rain will end and it will become partly to mostly cloudy. Parts of southern portions of the region, including Philadelphia, will see mainly sunny skies. It will be cooler than yesterday. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s but lower and middle 80s from central New Jersey southward. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 85° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.2°; 15-Year: 84.7° Newark: 30-Year: 85.7°; 15-Year: 86.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.7°; 15-Year: 87.0° Much of the upcoming week will see above normal temperatures.

It is. It seems just as Europe had two extreme heatwaves during summer 2019, the Pacific Northwest will experience the same on account of the tendency to keep returning to the prevailing hot pattern. It wouldn’t surprise me if there is additional heat in that region, not necessarily to the extreme levels of June or what lies ahead this week, later this month. The ongoing drought is helping drive that pattern.

Under partly sunny skies, the temperature rose into the upper 80s and even lower 90s across parts of the region. Tomorrow will be cooler, but the coming week could see the potential of a heat wave in parts of the region, especially from Washington, DC to Philadelphia. Above normal temperatures could persist toward mid-month. Next week could also see the development of a much above normal temperature regime in the Pacific Northwest. There is a growing possibility that Portland could experience its second extreme heat event of the year. That would make 2021 the first year on record with two such events. Portland could also experience 2 or more 100° high temperatures, allowing 2021 to tie or break the all-time record for most such days. In some of the long-range guidance that heat could later be followed by another round of heat in the Northern Plains a week or so later. If so, one will see a similar sequence of events as occurred from late June to mid-July. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was -8.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.650 today. On August 5 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.638 (RMM). The August 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.893 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.0° (normal).

Under partly sunny skies temperatures rose into the middle 80s at the New York Botanical Garden.

Early August 2009 (year referenced by Klotzbach) also saw the August record PNA+ that was shattered in recent days.

Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloud and warm today. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 86° Newark: 90° Philadelphia: 87° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.3°; 15-Year: 84.8° Newark: 30-Year: 85.8°; 15-Year: 86.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.8°; 15-Year: 87.2° Next week will be generally warmer than normal.

Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across much of the region today. 90° readings were recorded in Baltimore, Harrisburg, Hartford, Newark, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC: 90° Days for Select Cities (through August 6): Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days) Allentown: 17 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days) Baltimore: 35 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days) Boston: 15 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days) Bridgeport: 8 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days) Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days) Harrisburg: 22 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days) Hartford: 17 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days) Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days) New York City-JFK: 6 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days) New York City-LGA: 17 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days) New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days) Newark: 28 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days) Philadelphia: 23 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days) Scranton: 12 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days) Washington, DC: 30 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days) New York City-Newark Average: 16 (2020: 22 days) ...Expected: 17 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data) Out West, Phoenix is on course to record its 12th day of the year with a mean temperature of 100° or above. That would tie 2006, 2012, and 2013 for the 10th most such days. Since 1896, 16 years have seen 10 or more such days. Only one year, 1995, came before 2000. Since 2010, only 2014 and 2015 had fewer than 10 such days. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warm. Readings will likely rise into the middle 80s with some hot spots reaching the upper 80s. Next week could see the potential of a heat wave in parts of the region, especially from Washington, DC to Philadelphia. Above normal temperatures could persist toward mid-month. Next week could also see the development of a much above normal temperature regime in the Pacific Northwest. There is the possibility that Portland could experience its second extreme heat event of the year. That would make 201 the first year on record with two such events. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was -18.03 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.569 today. The preliminary Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern figure was +3.998. That set a new August record high PNA for the 3rd consecutive day. On August 4 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.895 (RMM). The August 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.057 (RMM).

8/5 Arctic sea ice extent: 5.902 million square kilometers (JAXA) Smallest decline from 8/5-minimum (2000-20): 1.047 million square kilometers Smallest decline from 8/5-minimum (2010-20): 1.489 million square kilometers Statistically and historically, there is virtually no chance that the minimum extent will be at or above 5 million square kilometers. Implied probabilities of a minimum extent of 4.5 million square kilometers or below: Unadjusted: 92% Adjusted (conservative bias): 75%

FYI: https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/08/a-look-back-at-very-bad-predictions-of-global-cooling/

Morning thoughts… It was an unnerving night last night in Seattle as drops of water began falling from the sky just before midnight. Seattle’s second longest streak without measurable precipitation ended at 51 days. It will be mostly sunny and very warm today. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 88° Newark: 92° Philadelphia: 90° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.4°; 15-Year: 84.9° Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 86.9°; 15-Year: 87.3° Tomorrow will be another warm day.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and warmer. Readings will likely rise into the middle 80s with some hot spots reaching the upper 80s. Next week could see the potential of a heat wave in parts of the region, especially from Washington, DC to Philadelphia. Above normal temperatures could persist toward mid-month. Next week could also see the development of a much above normal temperature regime in the Pacific Northwest. There is the possibility that Portland could experience its second extreme heat event of the year. That would make 201 the first year on record with two such events. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was -18.39 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.390 today. The preliminary Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern figure was +3.734. That further increased the August record positive PNA. On August 3 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.059 (RMM). The August 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.295 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… Western sections of the area will be mostly sunny while early clouds will give way to sunshine elsewhere in the region. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 85° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 85.1° Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 86.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.0°; 15-Year: 87.5° Tomorrow will turn much warmer.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and somewhat cooler than normal. Afterward, a warmer regime will try to develop. Next week could see the potential of a heat wave in parts of the region. Above normal temperatures could persist toward mid-month. Next week could also see the development of a much above normal temperature regime in the Pacific Northwest. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was -10.38 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.196 today. The preliminary Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern figure was +3.210. That exceeded the August monthly record of +3.160, which was set on August 1, 2009. On August 2 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.295 (RMM). The August 1-adjusted amplitude was 1.390 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy and cool. Showers and a period of rain are likely later today and tonight. Locations such as Islip, Providence, and Boston could reach or exceed 1.00” of rain. Temperatures will likely reach upper 70s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 77° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 85.2° Newark: 30-Year: 85.9°; 15-Year: 87.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.0°; 15-Year: 87.6° Heat will likely return during the weekend.

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy. A developing system will head northward along a frontal system and bring a period of moderate to significant rain to parts of the region. The area of heaviest rain will likely extend across southern New Jersey and Long Island into the eastern half of New England. Generally somewhat below normal readings will persist into the weekend. Afterward, a much warmer pattern could develop for a time. The temperature could be pressing 90° during the weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was +6.86 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.012 today. The preliminary Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern figure was +2.931. That smashed the daily record of +2.116, which was set in 2018. On August 1 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.394 (RMM). The July 31-adjusted amplitude was 1.327 (RMM).

Morning thoughts… It will be variably cloudy and comfortable. Temperatures will likely reach upper 70s and lower 80s in much of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78° Newark: 82° Philadelphia: 80° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 84.6°; 15-Year: 85.3° Newark: 30-Year: 86.1°; 15-Year: 87.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.1°; 15-Year: 87.8° Heat will likely return during the weekend.

I don’t think any of them will reach 130. 125-126 is possible during the height of the heat wave.

Generally somewhat below normal readings will persist into the weekend. Afterward, a much warmer pattern could develop for a time. The temperature could be pressing 90° during the weekend. In the near-term the temperature will likely reach 110° or above in Phoenix for the first time since July 11. In southern Europe into the Middle East, an extreme heat wave will continue to scorch the region. Numerous areas in Greece, Turkey into the Middle East saw readings at or above 110°. Damman, Saudi Arabia reached 123°. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around July 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into mid-September. The SOI was +4.92 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.762 today. On July 30 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.410 (RMM). The July 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.931 (RMM).