donsutherland1

Morning thoughts... Yesterday, some parts of New York State into northern New England saw some snow. Snowfall amounts included: Albany: 0.1”; Binghamton: 0.6”; Buffalo: 0.7” (old record: 0.2”, 1986); and, Caribou: 5.5” (old record: 4.6”, 1989). This morning, temperatures fell to unseasonably to unseasonably low levels across the area and the Northeast. Low temperatures included: Albany: 28; Bridgeport: 32; Caribou: 21 (tied record set in 1994); Islip: 33; Poughkeepsie: 27; Westhampton: 20 (old record: 25, 2018); and, White Plains: 34. At 8:15 am EDT, a system coming eastward was bringing rain to parts of Illinois, Indiana and along its warm front heavy rain and thunderstorms were poised to move into the Atlanta area, which has already received 30.32” precipitation this year, which is 14.18” above normal. Showers and periods of rain associated with that system will move into the New York Metro Area and suburbs later today or this evening.

Overnight, readings could approach or even break some daily record low temperatures in parts of the region. The forecast lows for April 23 for select locations on the 12z MOS were as follows: Albany: 22 (record: 26, 1975); Bridgeport: 32 (record: 30, 1982); Islip: 32 (record: 31, 1982 and 1989); Newark: 33 (record: 32, 1933); Westhampton: 21 (record: 25, 2018); and, White Plains: 29 (record: 26, 1982). A storm coming out of the Ohio Valley tomorrow will lead to increasing clouds during the daytime. Showers and periods of rain could move into the area during the afternoon or evening. Temperatures will likely stay well below normal through Friday. Overall, readings will likely average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through most of the remainder of the month. Warmer than normal conditions could return near the end of the month or just afterward. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. However, uncertainty about the May outcome has increased. The MJO was recently in Phase 1 at an amplitude in excess of 1.500 for two days. During the 1981-2019 period, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for two or more years in six cases: 1988, 1990, 1995, 1997, 2005, and 2010. During May, three (50%) were cooler than normal; two (33%) were near normal; and, one (17%) was warmer than normal. Ultimately, two-thirds of those cases went on to have a warmer to much warmer than normal summer. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May. The SOI was -2.67 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.660. On April 21, the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.800 (RMM). The April 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.719. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Based on recent MJO data, the probability of a warmer than normal summer has increased. Such a summer is now likely in much or all of the East. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.5°.

This afternoon, a squall line with strong to severe thunderstorms blasted through the region. By evening, the clouds broke in parts of the region allowing for a return of bright sunshine. Nevertheless, some showers still moved across the region during the evening. In the wake of the cold front, much colder air began pushing into the region. Tomorrow through Friday will likely see temperatures stay well below normal. Overall, readings will likely average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through most of the remainder of the month. Warmer than normal conditions could return near the end of the month or just afterward. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May. The SOI was +0.14 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.021. The last time the AO was at least as low was December 27, 2019 when the AO was -2.070. On April 20, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.728 (RMM). The April 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.678. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 90% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 51.5°.

On account of a storm's passing south of the region, most of the area saw considerable clouds into the afternoon today. Temperatures continued to run somewhat below normal. Tomorrow will be somewhat milder in advance of a cold front as a strong storm moves eastward from Ontario across Quebec. The storm's associated cold front will likely cross the region during the late morning or early afternoon with a round of showers and possibly thunderstorms. Strong winds are likely during the day. Noticeably cooler air will likely follow. Readings will likely average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through most of the remainder of the month. Warmer than normal conditions could return near the end of the month. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.62°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through mid-May. ENSO Region anomalies could begin a steady cooling during late April or May. The SOI was +8.00 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.181. On April 19, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.678 (RMM). The April 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.451. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 77% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.0°.

Verification: The April 1-17 mean temperature in New York City was 51.2. That was 0.5 degrees above normal. The model blend was 1.0 degrees too warm; the GFS was 2.5 degrees too cold.

Yesterday's storm was likely the last glancing blow of the feeble winter of 2019-2020. Snowfall totals across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions were far below normal. Near final seasonal snowfall totals include: Albany: 49.6" 10.2" below normal Baltimore: 1.8" 18.3" below normal (lowest since 2011-12: 1.8") Boston: 15.8" 27.8" below normal (lowest since 2011-12: 9.3") Harrisburg: 5.1" 25.4" below normal (***lowest on record***) New York City: 4.8" 20.9" below normal (lowest since 2001-02: 3.5") Newark: 6.9" 21.5" below normal (lowest since 2001-02: 3.6") Philadelphia: 0.3" 22.0" below normal (lowest since 1972-73: Trace) Washington, DC: 0.6" 14.8" below normal (lowest since 1997-97: 0.1") In contrast, Caribou has received 137.9" snow, which is 31.3" above normal. Winter 2019-20 was the 3rd consecutive winter during which 130" or more snow fell at Caribou. That last time that happened was winters 1970-71 through 1972-73. After a cold start, temperatures moderated this afternoon. Readings topped out in the upper 50s and lower 60s across much of the region. High temperatures included: Allentown: 64 Atlantic City: 61 Bridgeport: 59 Harrisburg: 60 (daily low: 29 tied the daily record set in 1904) Islip: 57 New York City: 63 Newark: 63 (daily low: 33 tied the daily record set in 2001) Philadelphia: 64 Overnight through tomorrow a storm will pass to the south spreading clouds across the region. A frontal passage could bring some rain or showers on Tuesday. Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Warmer than normal conditions could return during the closing days of April. However, uncertainty has increased, as some of the more recent guidance delays the return of the warmth. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was +15.14 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.181. On April 18, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.453 (RMM). The April 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.391. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.0°.

It was. Overall, it wasn’t a good winter for Albany. Of course, it was much worse farther south.

Earlier today, a cold rain fell across the New York Metro Area. Toward the end of the day, some areas in the nearby suburbs saw a little sleet. Across central New York State and southern and central New England, snow fell. Daily snowfall amounts included: Albany: 0.5"; Binghamton: 0.3" (storm total: 5.7"); Boston: 0.7"; Burrillville, RI: 5.8"; Hartford: 2.4" (old record: 1.7", 1965); Providence: 1.2" (old record: Trace, 1967, 2001, 2018); Tolland, CT: 5.5"; and, Worcester: 4.7". The last time Boston had measurable snow in April was April 2, 2018 when 0.7" fell. Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Warmer than normal conditions could return during the closing days of April. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -5.34 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.717. On April 17, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.390 (RMM). The April 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.301. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.

I wish there were positive news. This was a horrible winter beyond description.

Earlier today, a storm brought 3.0" snow to Chicago. That smashed the daily record of 0.5", which fell in 1949. The only higher amount recorded after April 15 was 3.1", which fell on April 23, 1967. Last year, Chicago picked up 2.5" snow on April 27. Detroit had received 2.9" snow as of 5 pm. Tonight into the tomorrow, that storm will bring a cold rain to the coastal region of the Middle Atlantic States, including Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. An area stretching from northeastern Pennsylvania across central New York State and into central New England could pick up at accumulating snow. Snowfall estimates include: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 3"-6" Boston: 1"-3" Scranton: 2"-4" The last time Boston had measurable snow in April was April 2, 2018 when 0.7" fell. That last time Boston received 1" or more snow in April was April 4, 2016 when 4.7" fell. No measurable snow is likely in Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and adjacent areas. There a chilly rain will fall. Some sleet pellets could be mixed in. Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Support on the extended guidance for a return of warmer than normal conditions for the closing days of April has increased. Some of the guidance shows the potential for much above normal temperatures to develop. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -18.53 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.531. On April 16, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.300 (RMM). The April 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.192. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.

Morning thoughts... 1. Unseasonably cool temperatures prevailed this morning. A few locations saw temperatures approach or reach or exceed the daily record low temperature. Low temperatures included: Albany: 27; Allentown: 30; Bridgeport: 34; Harrisburg: 29 (tied record set in 1904 and tied in 1980); Islip: 30 (tied record set in 1971 and tied in 2005); New York City: 36; Newark: 32 (near the record of 30 set in 1980); Philadelphia: 34; Poughkeepsie: 25; White Plains: 31 (near the record of 30 set in 1980); and, Westhampton: 20 (old record: 21, 2005). 2. Even colder temperatures prevailed in parts of Wyoming. Such temperatures included: Casper: 16 (near the record of 15 set in 1945); Cheyenne: 5 (old record: 8, 1901); and, Laramie: -11 (old record 0, 1999). The -11 temperature was only the second case where Laramie had a temperature of -10 or below in April. The only other such case occurred on April 2, 1975 when the temperature reached -14. Records go back to 1948. 3. A storm was continuing to track eastward. Snow was falling in parts of northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and southern Michigan. Snow was approaching the greater Detroit area. Rain was falling south of there. This system will bring snow from an area stretching from northeastern Pennsylvania across central New York State and then eastward into central and southern New England. Snowfall estimates include: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 3"-6" Boston: 1" or 3" Scranton: 2"-4" The last time Boston had measurable snow in April was April 2, 2018 when 0.7" fell. The last time Boston saw 1" or more snow in April was April 4, 2016 when 4.7" fell.

Perhaps the last snow threat of the 2019-2020 season now looms for parts of the Great Lakes region eastward into southern and central New England. Late tomorrow into the coming weekend, a storm will come out of the Plains States bringing a cold rain to the coastal region of the Middle Atlantic States, including Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. An area stretching from northeastern Pennsylvania across central New York State and into central New England could pick up at least some snow. Snowfall estimates include: Albany: 3"-6" Binghamton: 3"-6" Boston: 2" or less Scranton: 2"-4" The last time Boston had measurable snow in April was April 2, 2018 when 0.7" fell. No measurable snow is likely in Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, and adjacent areas. There a chilly rain will fall. Some sleet pellets could be mixed in. Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Support on the extended guidance for a return of warmer than normal conditions for the closing days of April has increased. Some of the guidance shows the potential for much above normal temperatures to develop. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -16.51 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.082. On April 15, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.203 (RMM). The April 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.411. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.

Morning thoughts... 1. Snow fell in parts of the Great Lakes region yesterday. Snowfall amounts included 1.7" in Chicago (old daily record: 1.5", 1980) and 1.3" in Detroit. 2. Following the system, temperatures were in the 20s across that region this morning. Low temperatures included: Chicago: 28; Detroit: 25; Indianapolis: 24; Milwaukee: 26; and, Rockford: 23. 3. Another storm will move eastward out of the Plains States tomorrow and then off the East Coast on Saturday. It will likely bring a swath of snow across parts of the Great Lakes region, across northeastern Pennsylvania and then into New England. Initial snowfall ideas: Albany: 3”-6” Binghamton: 4”-8” Boston: 2” or less Chicago: 1"-3" Detroit: 1"-3" Scranton: 2”-4” No accumulations are likely in New York City, Newark, and Philadelphia where a cold rain is likely.

Probably not. Some sleet pellets are possible.

Cooler weather covered the region today. Late this week into the weekend, a storm will come out of the Plains States bringing a cold rain to the coastal region of the Middle Atlantic States, including Philadelphia, Newark, and New York City. An area stretching from northeastern Pennsylvania across central New York State and into central New England could pick up at least some snow. Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Support on the extended guidance for a return of warmer than normal conditions for the closing days of April has increased. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was -5.41 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.278. On April 14, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.413 (RMM). The April 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.592. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 58% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.

Morning thoughts... 1. A dense area of clouds that stretches from eastern North Carolina to southeastern New Hampshire will shift eastward this morning leading to sunshine in the New York Metro Area and later Long Island. 2. The region is now in a period where readings will generally average somewhat below normal to near normal with perhaps a few milder days. 3. Late this week and early this weekend, a storm coming out of the Plains States will likely spread a cold rain to coastal areas. Interior parts of Pennsylvania, northwestern New Jersey, along with central New York State, and central New England could see at least some snow. 4. There continues to be growing support in the long-range for a warmer pattern to develop in the closing days of April.

I tend to doubt it, at least as far as the coastal areas or nearby regions are concerned.

Following yesterday's fierce storm, more tranquil weather returned. The temperature topped out in the upper 50s and lower 60s across the region. Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Some of the extended guidance shows the return of warmer conditions for the closing days of April. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was +7.21 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.658. On April 13, the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.589 (RMM). The April 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.911. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.

Morning thoughts... 1. Following yesterday's daily record 1.92" precipitation in Central Park (old record: 1.26", 1920), sunshine has returned. The high temperature will likely top out in the middle and upper 50s in contrast to yesterday's late day high of 67. 2. This morning record cold covered parts of the Plains States. Records included: Colorado Springs: 7 (old record: 8, 1933); Denver: 11 (old record: 15, 1933); Grand Forks, ND: 4 (old record: 8, 1950); Lincoln, NE: 16 (tied record set in 1950); North Platte, NE: 15 (tied record set in 1928); Rapid City: 5 (old record: 13, 2018); and, Rochester, MN: 14 (old record: 18, 1962). 3. Through the next 7-10 days, a generally cooler than normal pattern with much below normal temperatures centered over the Plains States will likely prevail. In the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions, readings will generally be somewhat below normal to near normal with a few milder days. 4. A warmer pattern could begin to develop during the closing days of April.

A rapidly deepening storm brought high winds and heavy rain to the region today. With 1.92", New York City had its largest precipitation amount since September 25, 2019 when 1.95" precipitation was recorded. In the wake of the intense storm, somewhat cooler air will return to the region. Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was +16.65 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.178. On April 12, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.917 (RMM). The April 11-adjusted amplitude was 2.179. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.

Thanks Maureen.

At 2 pm, the temperature was 59° with strong southeasterly winds.

As of 10 am, New York City had received 1.17” rain. This is the biggest precipitation amount this year. The last time with at least as much precipitation was December 9, 2019 when 1.57” fell.

Today saw partly cloudy skies with high temperatures reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s. Clouds will increase tonight. Overnight, a rapidly deepening storm will track toward the Great Lakes. By tomorrow night, the storm could have a central pressure under 970 mb as it pushes through Quebec. Before then, this storm will spread periods of moderate to heavy rain into the region tonight into tomorrow. Rainfall amounts will likely total 0.75"-1.75" with some locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00". Strong winds with gusts past 65 mph are likely tomorrow. The potential also exists for some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. Colder air should return for Tuesday. This is a genuinely cold air mass. Earlier today, the temperature fell to -3° in Great Falls. The only other times the temperature fell below zero this late in the season was April 20 (-1°) and April 22 (-8°) in 2008. Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Sunday and Monday are among the days that could see temperatures reach above normal levels. The Plains States will likely experience much colder than normal readings. The potential exists for warming after April 24. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was +15.50 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.695. On April 11, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.179 (RMM). The April 10-adjusted amplitude was 2.066. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.

Under bright sunshine, temperatures rose into the 50s across the region today. Record warmth prevailed in parts of the United Kingdom, Ireland and France. In parts of the United Kingdom and Ireland, temperatures approached all-time April records. Daily records included: Birmingham, UK: 75°; Brest, France: 75°; Cork, Ireland: 66°; Cranwell, UK: 75°; Dublin: 66°; East Midlands, UK: 72°; Humberside, UK: 75°; Jersey, UK: 75°; London-Gatwick: 75°; London-Heathrow: 75°; Manchester, UK: 66°; Paris-Charles de Gaulle: 77°; Paris-Le Bourget: 77°; Saint-Yan, France: 77°; Scampton, UK: 73°; Troyes, France: 77°; and, Yeovilton, UK: 77°. Tomorrow will be partly sunny and noticeably milder. Temperatures will likely rise into the 60s. Overnight, a rapidly deepening storm will track toward the Great Lakes. By Monday night, the storm could have a central pressure under 970 mb as it pushes through Quebec. Before then, this storm will spread periods of moderate to heavy rain into the region tomorrow night and Monday. Rainfall amounts will likely total 0.75"-1.75" with some locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00". Strong winds with gusts past 50 mph are likely on Monday. The potential also exists for some strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. Colder air should return for Tuesday. Through at least April 24, readings could average generally below normal to near normal with a few warmer than normal days across the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Sunday and Monday are among the days that could see temperatures reach above normal levels. The Plains States will likely experience much colder than normal readings. The potential exists for warming after April 24. Past cases that saw the NAO average -0.750 or below during April 1-5 with warmth in the East, as occurred this month, saw the development of a trough in the East after April 10. That trough typically persisted in the means for 1-2 weeks. Looking ahead to May, 73% of cases that saw one or more days where the NAO fell to -1.000 or below during April 1-10, 1950-2019, as was the case this April, wound up with a warmer than normal May. In addition, two-thirds of cases that saw the MJO reach Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above during the April 5-20 period, as happened this month, saw a warmer than normal May. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.6°C for the week centered around April 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.67°C. Neutral and occasionally warm ENSO conditions will likely prevail through at least the end of April. The SOI was +5.19 today. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.895. On April 10, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 2.068 (RMM). The April 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.613. February 2020 saw the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly increase by more than 0.50°C. Such a development has typically occurred before a warmer than normal summer. In all such cases, a warmer than normal spring was followed by a warmer than normal summer. Therefore, a warmer than normal summer is currently more likely than not. Should Spring wind up warmer than normal, a warm or even hot summer will be very likely. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 54% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 52.5°.